Netanyahu's Final Gamble: Will the Gaza Deal Seal His Fate or Save His Legacy?

Daily News Egypt

4 days ago

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is living through one of the most politically precarious moments of his career. At the heart of this crisis lies the looming Gaza deal — a potential turning point that could either salvage his political future or mark the end of it. While Netanyahu clearly wants the deal, he remains uncertain about what comes next. What happens on 'Day 61' if Hamas refuses to surrender? Can Israel resume its military campaign? And perhaps most critically, will international backing — particularly from the United States — still be there?
Since the beginning of the Gaza war, Netanyahu has held firm to a hardline stance: no ceasefire without the complete eradication of Hamas. Yet, as the war nears its third year, none of his declared objectives have materialised — neither the release of hostages nor the dismantling of Hamas's grip on Gaza.
In recent weeks, however, something has shifted — not in declared goals, but in tone and strategy. For the first time, Netanyahu has spoken publicly about ending the war as part of the proposed deal now being negotiated in Cairo and Doha. In a meeting with hostage families in Washington, he stated unequivocally: 'If the deal moves forward, negotiations for ending the war will begin immediately — not after 60 days. The goal after 60 days is to end the war.'
In politics, no statement is made without intent. These words signal a notable shift — especially given US President Donald Trump's resolute stance: 'I will be very firm with Netanyahu about ending the war in Gaza.'
At the same time, Israel's position is becoming increasingly untenable in the eyes of the international community, as it continues to enforce a punishing blockade on Gaza's civilian population. Thousands of aid trucks have been stranded at the Rafah border for months, denied entry by Israel without justification.
Facing mounting pressure both at home and abroad, Netanyahu is manoeuvring for time. He seeks a temporary deal that would allow him to remain in power, appease Washington, and avoid alienating his far-right coalition. His ideal outcome? A partial deal that secures the release of some hostages alive, allows for a temporary halt in fighting, and buys him political breathing space.
The Biden administration — and, more specifically, Trump's ambitions if he returns — appears less tolerant this time. Unlike past ceasefires, the US is signalling it will not allow a return to hostilities after 60 days. Trump, driven by his ambition to secure a Nobel Peace Prize, is determined to broker a lasting solution. Gaza, in his eyes, is merely the first step toward a grand regional bargain. To achieve that, he may be willing to pressure even America's closest ally in the region.
Netanyahu thus faces a dangerous paradox. If he agrees to a deal that rules out resuming combat, he risks the collapse of his ruling coalition. If he insists on keeping that option open, he may lose Trump's support — and with it, any leverage he has on the world stage. It is a classic clash between domestic survival and international demands.
The challenge is not external alone. Inside Israel, key coalition partners like Smotrich and Ben Gvir have made it clear they will not accept any deal that leaves Hamas standing in any form — military or civil. Even the prospect of sweeping regional peace agreements would mean little to them if Hamas remains intact.
This is why Netanyahu prefers a limited deal: rescuing 10 hostages alive and retrieving 18 bodies in exchange for a short-term ceasefire. If Hamas refuses to surrender afterwards, Israel can return to war. But if the deal requires a full cessation of hostilities, Netanyahu will be forced to choose between recovering the hostages or saving his political career.
True to form, Netanyahu will likely attempt to manoeuvre his way out — as he has done in the past. But this time, the minefield is far more treacherous. Trump is not a background player but a driving force with a prize in sight. And Gaza, for him, is not the endgame — it is the opening move on a much larger regional chessboard.
Whether Netanyahu can pull off one more deal — or if this truly is his final political gamble — remains to be seen.
Dr. Hatem Sadek: Professor at Helwan University