How Syria became the battleground for Israeli and Turkish influence
Could this situation constitute a recipe for stability, or presage further troubles ahead?
Although engaged in conflict on multiple fronts - Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran - Israel appears to have prevailed for the time being, while the Tehran-led 'axis of resistance' seems in disarray.
Iran's military leadership and infrastructure were severely hit during the June war, which also damaged the state's nuclear programme, although how much it has been set back remains unclear. The Iranian response was muted after the US bombed the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites on 22 June.
Syria, meanwhile, is now ruled by a former al-Qaeda militant whose reputation was laundered at record speed by western democracies. Decades of American and European mobilisation against extremist groups such as the Islamic State and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham were tossed into the garbage within days, further confirming western double standards.
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Iran's main logistical route to support Hezbollah in Lebanon has thus been severed. As for the Lebanese movement itself, it has been severely weakened with the loss of leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top figures. It is now under strong pressure, both internal and international, to give up its military arsenal.
At the same time, Israel's ruthlessness in Gaza, which has been turned into a massive killing field as starving civilians queue to receive limited humanitarian aid, has degraded much of its international support. But Israel's extremist government does not really care about the world's opinion, as long as western nations continue to provide support (and others, such as Russia and China, remain inexplicably neutral).
Unprovoked strikes
As for Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently succeeded in neutralising the main security threat along its southeastern border, the Kurdistan Workers' Party.
It also prevailed in its long-sought objective to remove Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria, replacing him with Ahmed al-Sharaa. And last but not least, Ankara has bolstered its global reputation as the go-to mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Alongside Israel, Turkey has become a top regional actor. In this context, any path towards stability in such a volatile setting must now inevitably involve both Israel and Turkey - and both are prepared to rebuff US pressure, in ways few other American allies could dream of doing.
Unsurprisingly, suspicions about Washington's real intentions run deep in Turkey. Ankara believes that ultimately, the US will always prioritise Israel
Syria could become one of the most important stress tests for this dynamic. Last month, Israel carried out air strikes against Syrian regime positions amid clashes between Druze and Bedouin communities in southern Syria. While Israel said its goal was to protect the Druze, its actual policy seems to be focused on disarming the area south of Damascus to expand its own 'buffer zone'.
This is not even to mention how, in the immediate aftermath of Assad's collapse, Israel launched a series of unprovoked air strikes on Syria, levelling the state's military infrastructure - to the usual deafening silence of western democracies.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and other regional states have expressed their support for Syria's unity, while Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has warned that Turkey could intervene if separatist groups - such as the Druze, viewed by Ankara as an agent of Israel - attempt to divide and destabilise Syria.
There has also been speculation that Israel may try to void its 1974 ceasefire deal with Syria, in search of a new security arrangement that would give Israel a presence beyond the Golan Heights for a five-year transitional period, according to a regional security source.
Considering how easily Israel turns transitional periods into permanent ones, it would be normal to expect such a move to ignite serious concerns in Damascus, and possibly also Ankara.
Suspicions run deep
At the same time, the Syrian government's recent attempt to subdue Druze areas has caused concerns among the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who fear that in such a scenario, they could become the next target - although so far, they have benefitted from US protection.
In this context, Turkey does not appear ready to come to Sharaa's defence, and it is unclear as to whether it would be able to compromise with Israel on agreed spheres of influence.
In a hypothetical division, the southern part of Syria up to the outskirts of Damascus could fall under Israeli influence, and the rest - except for the SDF heartland east of the Euphrates - under Turkish influence. In such a configuration, the SDF would count on American support as a bulwark against Turkish attacks. How this would work in practice would be an open question.
Syria after Assad: How Israel and the US are accelerating plans to partition the country Read More »
Another significant stress test may soon come into play with regard to US diplomacy in the area. The US ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, an American of Lebanese origin, has a significant advantage in Washington: a direct line to President Donald Trump. He is also the special envoy for Syria, with a mandate to stabilise the political situation in Lebanon. This is quite an extensive mandate for a single figure in a highly volatile region - a clear signal that Washington might be aiming for a comprehensive approach.
Unsurprisingly, suspicions about Washington's real intentions run deep in Turkey. Ankara believes that ultimately, the US will always prioritise Israel.
But the future remains uncertain. Can Washington rein in two of its major regional allies to avoid a scenario in which a deeply divided Syria, pulled in different directions by competing spheres of influence, could be the spark that ignites another major conflict?
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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