Fleet Emissions Rise As Imports Fall Sharply

Scoop

2 days ago

Projected import volumes for used vehicles in New Zealand could fall as low as 60,000 by 2028, slashing fleet turnover and threatening emissions goals, according to industry analysis.
A major position paper released by VIA this month— Accelerating the Path to Sustainable Transport —found that not only is the CCS failing to deliver the expected environmental benefits but is also directly undermining progress by constraining access to cleaner, affordable used vehicles—still the most relied-upon segment by 80% of New Zealand consumers.
'The Clean Car Standard was meant to green our roads, but it's stalling fleet renewal and ageing our vehicles,' says Greig Epps, Chief Executive of the Imported Motor Vehicle Industry Association (VIA).
The Clean Car Standard (CCS), launched with the intention of reducing transport emissions, is now under fire from the very industry it was meant to help reform.
'VIA initially supported the Clean Car Programme's intent to reduce emissions but warned in October 2021 that its design could lead to unintended consequences, including vehicle shortages, rising costs, market inefficiencies, fleet aging, and flawed incentives—predictions that, as much as everyone hoped otherwise, have proven to be true,' says Epps.
1. Reassess the volume trap
Data reveals that unless policy is urgently reformed, used import volumes could decline to 60,000 by 2028—a level last seen before the liberalisation of vehicle tariffs in the late 1980s.
A contracting pipeline means fewer efficient vehicles are available to replace the old, high-emitting ones still on New Zealand's roads. That dynamic, compounded by cost-of-living pressures, will incentivise owners to repair and retain older cars, which will effectively reverse the emissions gains CCS was designed to produce.
Epps says the reality is sobering, 'The average vehicle age is climbing, and with it, emissions per kilometre. Treasury warned back in 2019 that fleet refreshment—not just cleaner cars—was critical to reducing net emissions. VIA's latest reports show this advice was not heeded.'
2. Focus on fuel, not just fleets
'The fastest way to cut emissions is to target the energy source, not just the car,' says Epps.
The paper advocates for a broader approach through a transparent, user-pays fuel levy to reflect the true climate cost of driving. By making petrol more expensive at the pump, behaviour change is more likely across all vehicle types, rather than penalising just the act of importing a car.
'We believe this would shift the incentive from vehicle purchase decisions alone to everyday usage—a more equitable approach,' says Epps. 'Especially given that vehicle supply is driven by Japanese auction markets and foreign exchange rates far beyond the control of Kiwi buyers or importers.'
3. Keep it simple, and sustainable
Epps says the VIA is calling for CCS overhaul, if not replacement.
'At the heart of the issue is a misaligned set of targets and incentives. For example, current weight allowances mean that heavier vehicles receive more lenient emissions benchmarks, creating a perverse incentive that favours larger cars—despite their greater fuel use.'
Epps is calling for a flat penalty for each gram of CO over a set threshold, applied at first registration and clearly displayed at the point of sale.
'This system would be transparent, fair, and easier for consumers to understand. Crucially, it would also better align with used market realities, where options are constrained by Japan's registration patterns from a decade ago,' he says.
Broad approach to transport needed
Epps says a genuinely effective response to transport emissions in New Zealand requires a whole-of-system approach—one that goes far beyond simply regulating the cars we drive.
'Focusing solely on the Clean Car Standard (CCS) neglects the broader ecosystem of transport choices that shape daily mobility, particularly in urban areas. Investment in public transport infrastructure offers scalable emissions reductions by shifting commuters out of private vehicles altogether.
'Electrifying bus fleets, expanding train services, and supporting active transport options like cycling and walking through safe, connected cycleways can deliver rapid, population-wide benefits.'
Epps says these initiatives reduce vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) and lower dependence on fossil fuels, regardless of the vehicle fleet's emissions profile.
'The Clean Car Standard can't carry the entire weight of our climate commitments,' says Epps, and the data supports this. By rebalancing policy focus to include modal shift—encouraging more people to choose buses, bikes, or trains instead of cars—New Zealand can achieve meaningful emissions reductions while also improving health, congestion, and social equity,' he says.
This means investing not only in infrastructure but also in affordability and access: subsidised public transport, integrated ticketing systems, and support for electric bike ownership all play a role.
'A diversified strategy doesn't dilute emissions efforts—it strengthens them, ensuring more New Zealanders can participate in the transition, not just those in a position to buy a cleaner car,' says Epps.
The path forward
The original Clean Car Programme was built on good intentions, but execution has strayed into over-engineered policy that now actively hampers the transition it aimed to enable.
'Without affordable used hybrids and electrics flowing into the country at scale, emissions will continue to rise despite regulatory efforts.'
Epps says that unfortunately, VIA's consistent warnings since 2021 have come to pass.
'We encourage the Government to decide whether to recalibrate to create a greener, more sustainable transport system. The alternative is rising costs, older cars, and missed climate targets,' he says.
For more information: www.via.org.nz
ABOUT
VIA (Imported Motor Vehicle Industry Association) represents businesses involved in importing, preparing, wholesaling, and retailing used vehicles into New Zealand, primarily from Japan, Singapore, and other markets. As the industry's collective voice, VIA engages with government and stakeholders to support fair regulation and sustainable practices across the sector.