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Ibotta Reports Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Ibotta Reports Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Business Wire3 days ago
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Revenue declined by 2% year-over-year to $86.0 million
Redemption revenue declined by 1% year-over-year to $73.2 million
Generated net income of $2.5 million, representing net income as a percent of revenue of 3%, and Adjusted EBITDA of $17.9 million, representing a 21% Adjusted EBITDA margin
Generated cash from operating activities of $25.9 million and free cash flow of $18.9 million
DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ibotta, Inc. (NYSE: IBTA), which operates the largest item-level digital promotions network in North America, today announced financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025.
'Ibotta is working hard to bring the power of performance marketing to the CPG industry, allowing our clients to drive profitable revenue growth at scale,' said Ibotta CEO and founder, Bryan Leach.
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'Ibotta is working hard to bring the power of performance marketing to the CPG industry, allowing our clients to drive profitable revenue growth at scale,' said Ibotta CEO and founder, Bryan Leach. 'We are working to fundamentally shift the ways promotions are perceived which requires us to reinvent how they are measured and change how they are purchased to more closely resemble other forms of digital media, where advertisers turn on campaigns and leave them on as long as they are delivering positive incremental returns on investment. We believe this transformation will allow us to capture a greater portion of our total addressable market for CPG marketing spend, unlock advertiser supply, and take advantage of our fast-growing network, both now and into the future. I also want to welcome Matt Puckett to Ibotta as our new CFO. We are thrilled to have his leadership as we move into our next phase of growth.'
Second Quarter 2025 Financial Highlights:
Total revenue of $86.0 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 2%.
Total redemption revenue of $73.2 million, a decrease of 1% year-over-year.
During the quarter, the IPN had 17.3 million redeemers, compared to 13.7 million redeemers in the second quarter of 2024, an increase of 27% year-over-year. The primary driver of year-over-year growth was the launch of Instacart during the fourth quarter of 2024, like-for-like growth at our existing publishers, and the partial launch of DoorDash.
Increased third-party publisher redemptions to 58.6 million, compared to 52.1 million in the second quarter of 2024, an increase of 12% year-over-year.
Generated net income of $2.5 million, representing net income as a percent of revenue of 3%, and adjusted net income of $14.9 million, representing adjusted net income as a percent of revenue of 17%.
Delivered Adjusted EBITDA of $17.9 million, representing an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 21%.
Generated cash from operating activities of $25.9 million and free cash flow of $18.9 million.
Repurchased 1.4 million shares for a total of $67.5 million at an average price per share of $46.59, exclusive of broker commissions and excise tax.
The following table summarizes the Company's financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024:
The following table summarizes the Company's performance metrics for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024:
Three months ended
June 30,
Six months ended
June 30,
Performance Metrics
Redemptions:
Direct-to-consumer redemptions
21,933
28,573
(23
)%
43,561
56,248
(23
)%
Third-party publisher redemptions
58,551
52,142
12
%
119,763
95,934
25
%
Total redemptions
80,484
80,715

%
163,324
152,181
7
%
Redeemers:
Direct-to-consumer redeemers
1,594
1,800
(11
)%
1,625
1,864
(13
)%
Third-party publisher redeemers
15,742
11,902
32
%
15,588
11,230
39
%
Total redeemers
17,336
13,702
27
%
17,213
13,095
31
%
Redemptions per redeemer:
Direct-to-consumer redemptions per redeemer
13.8
15.9
(13
)%
26.8
30.2
(11
)%
Third-party publisher redemptions per redeemer
3.7
4.4
(15
)%
7.7
8.5
(9
)%
Total redemptions per redeemer
4.6
5.9
(21
)%
9.5
11.6
(18
)%
Redemption revenue per redemption:
Direct-to-consumer redemption revenue per redemption
$
1.12
$
1.13

%
$
1.14
$
1.16
(2
)%
Third-party publisher redemption revenue per redemption
$
0.83
$
0.80
4
%
$
0.81
$
0.80
1
%
Total redemption revenue per redemption
$
0.91
$
0.92
(1
)%
$
0.90
$
0.93
(3
)%
Expand
Note that certain figures shown above may not recalculate due to rounding.
Second Quarter 2025 Business Highlights:
27% year-over-year growth in quarterly redeemers on the Ibotta Performance Network.
Ibotta digital offers became available to the majority of DoorDash customers.
Added to our Revenue leadership team with new hires in the roles of SVP of Enterprise Sales and SVP of Business Marketing and subsequent to quarter-end, SVP of Revenue Operations.
Subsequent to quarter-end, announced the hiring of Matt Puckett as CFO.
Subsequent to quarter-end, implemented a sales re-organization and held our Summer Sales Kick Off, where we introduced a simplified sales motion and paved the way for our transition to performance marketing.
Financial Guidance:
Third quarter 2025 outlook summary:
Revenue of $79.0 - $85.0 million, a year-over-year decrease of 17% at the midpoint.
Adjusted EBITDA of $9.5 - $13.5 million, representing a margin of 14% at the midpoint.
Guidance for Adjusted EBITDA is earnings before interest income, net, provision for income taxes, and depreciation and amortization, and excludes stock-based compensation, restructuring charges, and other expense, net. We have not reconciled Adjusted EBITDA to GAAP net income for our guidance because we do not provide guidance on GAAP net income and would not be able to present the various reconciling cash and non-cash items between the GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures since certain items that impact these measures are uncertain or out of our control, or cannot be reasonably predicted, including share-based compensation expense, without unreasonable effort. The actual amounts of such reconciling items could have a significant impact on the Company's GAAP net income.
Use of Non-GAAP Financial Information
Included within this press release are the non-GAAP financial measures of adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, adjusted net income as a percent of revenue, adjusted diluted net income per share and free cash flow that supplement the condensed financial statements of the Company prepared under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The non-GAAP financial information is presented for supplemental informational purposes only and is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for, or superior to, financial information prepared and presented in accordance with GAAP. Please see the accompanying tables for reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their nearest GAAP equivalents.
Adjusted EBITDA is earnings before interest income, net, provision for income taxes, and depreciation and amortization, and excludes stock-based compensation, change in fair value of derivative, loss on debt extinguishment, restructuring charges, and other expense, net. Adjusted EBITDA margin is calculated as Adjusted EBITDA as a percent of revenue. Adjusted net income excludes stock-based compensation, loss on debt extinguishment, change in fair value of derivative, restructuring charges, and the related income tax effects. The income tax effect of non-GAAP adjustments is the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP income tax expense. Non-GAAP income tax expense is computed on non-GAAP pre-tax income (GAAP pre-tax income adjusted for non-GAAP adjustments). Adjusted diluted net income per share is calculated as adjusted net income divided by diluted weighted average common shares outstanding. Free cash flow is defined as cash provided by operating activities, less additions to property and equipment and capitalization of software development costs.
The Company's management believes that these non-GAAP measures can assist investors in evaluating the Company's operational trends, financial performance, and cash-generating capacity. Management believes these non-GAAP measures allow investors to evaluate the Company's financial performance using some of the same measures as management. Investors are cautioned that there are material limitations associated with the use of non-GAAP financial measures versus their nearest GAAP equivalents. The Company's definitions may differ from the definitions used by other companies and therefore comparability may be limited. In addition, other companies may not publish these or similar metrics. These non-GAAP measures are not meant to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the comparable GAAP measures, but are included solely for informational and comparative purposes. Non-GAAP financial measures are subject to limitations and should be read only in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP. In light of these limitations, management also reviews the specific items that are excluded from our non-GAAP measures, as well as trends in these items.
Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Webcast and Conference Call Details
Key Business Terms and Notes
Ibotta Performance Network (IPN): An AI-enabled technology platform that allows CPG brands to deliver digital promotions to consumers via a network of publishers, in a coordinated fashion and on a fee-per-sale basis.
Redeemers: ​​A consumer who has redeemed at least one digital offer within the time period specified. If a consumer were to redeem on more than one publisher during that period, they would be counted as multiple redeemers. Year-to-date redeemers are calculated as the average of current year quarter-to-date redeemers.
Redemptions: A verified purchase of an item qualifying for an offer by a client on the IPN.
Redemption Revenue: The Company's customers promote their products and services to consumers through cash back offers on the IPN. The Company earns a fee per redemption which is recognized in the period in which the redemption occurred. The Company may also charge fees to set up a redemption campaign which are deferred and recognized over the average duration of historical redemption campaigns.
About Ibotta ("I bought a...")
Ibotta (NYSE: IBTA) is a leading provider of digital promotions for CPG brands, reaching over 200 million consumers through a network of publishers called the Ibotta Performance Network (IPN). The IPN allows marketers to influence what people buy, and where and how often they shop – all while paying only when their campaigns directly result in a sale. American shoppers have earned over $2.5 billion through the IPN since 2012. The largest tech IPO in history to come out of Colorado, Ibotta is headquartered in Denver, and is continually listed as a top place to work by The Denver Post and Inc. Magazine.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains 'forward-looking statements' within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Any statements relating to expectations concerning matters that are not historical facts may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may include, without limitation, statements by our CEO and founder about our ability to transition our product and go-to-market, and the Company's financial guidance, such as revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. When words such as 'believe,' 'expect,' 'anticipate,' 'will', 'outlook' or similar expressions are used, the Company is making forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it cannot give readers any assurance that such expectations will prove correct. These forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including those related to the Company's relatively limited operating history, which makes it difficult to evaluate the Company's business and prospects, the demands and expectations of clients and the ability to attract and retain clients. The actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements as a result of numerous factors, many of which are beyond the control of the Company. These and other factors are disclosed in the Company's reports filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, available at www.sec.gov. Readers are urged not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this press release. The Company does not intend to update any forward-looking statement contained in this press release to reflect events or circumstances arising after the date hereof, except as required by law.
(1)
Amounts include stock-based compensation expense as follows (in thousands):
Expand
Three months ended June 30,
Six months ended June 30,
2025
2024
2025
2024
Cost of revenue
$
625
$
365
$
1,282
$
523
Sales and marketing (2)
4,873
26,808
10,002
30,430
Research and development
2,500
4,036
5,647
4,589
General and administrative
5,644
13,608
10,463
14,120
Total stock-based compensation expense
$
13,642
$
44,817
$
27,394
$
49,662
Expand
(2)
Stock-based compensation expense included in sales and marketing includes common stock warrant expense of $2.1 million and $21.9 million recognized during the three months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024, respectively, and $4.3 million and $24.9 million recognized during the six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024, respectively.
Expand
Ibotta, Inc.
CONDENSED BALANCE SHEETS
(In thousands)
June 30,
December 31,
2025
2024
(unaudited)
Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
$
250,549
$
349,282
Restricted cash
58
408
Accounts receivable, net
208,976
220,883
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
23,064
11,168
Total current assets
482,647
581,741
Property and equipment, net
9,044
1,951
Capitalized software development costs, net
19,054
16,201
Equity investment
4,531
4,531
Deferred tax assets, net
74,407
73,211
Operating lease assets
10,357

Other long-term assets
738
794
Total assets
$
600,778
$
678,429
Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable
$
10,596
$
7,160
Due to third-party publishers
94,713
93,982
Deferred revenue
5,148
4,964
User redemption liability
70,922
74,006
Accrued expenses
17,831
17,965
Other current liabilities
4,823
6,088
Total current liabilities
204,033
204,165
Long-term liabilities:
Operating lease liabilities, long-term
24,923

Unrecognized tax benefits, long-term
17,694
16,981
Total liabilities
246,650
221,146
Stockholders' equity:
Preferred stock


Class A common stock


Class B common stock


Additional paid-in capital
664,427
629,050
Treasury stock
(172,898
)
(31,321
)
Accumulated deficit
(137,401
)
(140,446
)
Total stockholders' equity
354,128
457,283
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity
$
600,778
$
678,429
Expand
Ibotta, Inc.
CONDENSED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
(In thousands)
(unaudited)
Six months ended June 30,
2025
2024
Operating activities
Net income (loss)
$
3,045
$
(24,669
)
Adjustments to reconcile net income (loss) to net cash provided by operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization
4,610
4,023
Impairment of capitalized software development costs
241
366
Stock-based compensation expense
23,049
24,802
Common stock warrant expense
4,345
24,860
Credit loss expense
1,454
681
Loss on extinguishment of debt

9,630
Amortization of debt discount and issuance costs
75
1,029
Change in fair value of convertible notes derivative liability

3,085
Other
10
23
Changes in assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable
10,463
16,741
Other current and long-term assets
(23,467
)
(1,603
)
Accounts payable
1,126
(2,917
)
Due to third-party publishers
731
7,387
Accrued expenses
(1,535
)
(7,787
)
Deferred revenue
184
203
User redemption liability
(3,084
)
(3,487
)
Other current and long-term liabilities
24,468
2,019
Net cash provided by operating activities
45,715
54,386
Investing activities
Additions to property and equipment
(5,520
)
(353
)
Additions to capitalized software development costs
(6,448
)
(4,436
)
Net cash used in investing activities
(11,968
)
(4,789
)
Financing activities
Proceeds from exercise of stock options
7,357
4,706
Debt issuance costs
(2
)

Proceeds from initial public offering, net

206,692
Deferred offering costs

(5,637
)
Purchase of treasury stock
(140,176
)

Taxes paid related to net share settlement of equity awards
(2,045
)

Proceeds from employee stock purchase plan
2,036

Other financing activities

(91
)
Net cash (used in) provided by financing activities
(132,830
)
205,670
Net change in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash
(99,083
)
255,267
Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, beginning of period
349,690
62,591
Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash, end of period
$
250,607
$
317,858
Expand
The following table disaggregates the Company's direct-to-consumer and third-party publishers revenue by redemption and ad & other revenue:
Non-GAAP Financial Metrics
(In thousands, except shares, per share amounts, and percentages)
The following tables show the Company's non-GAAP financial metrics reconciled to the comparable GAAP financial metrics included in this release:
Reconciliation of Adjusted Net Income
Three months ended June 30,
Six months ended June 30,
2025
2024
2025
2024
Net income (loss)
$
2,490
$
(33,966
)
$
3,045
$
(24,669
)
Stock-based compensation
13,642
44,817
27,394
49,662
Change in fair value of derivative

1,385

3,085
Loss on debt extinguishment

9,630

9,630
Restructuring charges
557

2,116

Adjustment for income taxes
(1,797
)
(2,007
)
(5,554
)
(2,451
)
Adjusted net income
$
14,892
$
19,859
$
27,001
$
35,257
Revenue
$
86,029
$
87,926
$
170,603
$
170,253
Adjusted net income as a percent of revenue
17
%
23
%
16
%
21
%
Weighted average common shares outstanding, diluted
30,433,519
25,659,465
31,819,817
17,484,092
Net income (loss) per share, diluted
$
0.08
$
(1.32
)
$
0.10
$
(1.41
)
Adjusted weighted average common shares outstanding, diluted
30,433,519
29,022,347
31,819,817
20,065,490
Expand
Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow
Three months ended June 30,
Six months ended June 30,
2025
2024
2025
2024
Net cash provided by operating activities
$
25,855
$
35,020
$
45,715
$
54,386
Additions to property and equipment
(3,626
)
(201
)
(5,520
)
(353
)
Additions to capitalized software development costs
(3,374
)
(2,121
)
(6,448
)
(4,436
)
Free cash flow
$
18,855
$
32,698
$
33,747
$
49,597
Expand
Contacts
Corporate Communications
Hilary O'Byrne, hilary.obyrne@ibotta.com
Investor Relations
Shalin Patel, shalin.patel@ibotta.com
Industry:
Apps/Applications
Technology
Other Retail
Other Technology
Electronic Commerce
Communications
Software
Digital Marketing
Retail
Online Retail
More News From Ibotta, Inc.
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Ibotta To Announce Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results on August 13, 2025
DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ibotta (NYSE: IBTA), which operates the largest digital promotions network in North America, announced today that it will report second quarter 2025 financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, August 13, 2025. Management will host a conference call and webcast to discuss Ibotta's financial results, recent developments, and business outlook at 2:30 p.m. MT/4:30 p.m. ET following the release of the financial results. What: Ibotta Second Quarter 2025 Financia...
Ibotta Strengthens Senior Revenue Leadership to Supercharge Sales Strategy
DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ibotta, Inc. (NYSE: IBTA), which operates the largest digital promotions network in North America, today announced the strategic expansion of its senior sales leadership team with the appointments of David Parisi as Senior Vice President of Client Partnerships and Chris Boyd as Senior Vice President of Business Marketing. The key hires underscore Ibotta's commitment to advancing its go-to-market strategy and establishing Ibotta as the first full-service performance mark...
Ibotta, Inc.
NYSE:IBTA
Release Versions
English
Contacts
Corporate Communications
Hilary O'Byrne, hilary.obyrne@ibotta.com
Investor Relations
Shalin Patel, shalin.patel@ibotta.com
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Let's dig into the catalysts fueling such epic growth at TSMC and then assess some lesser-understood valuation techniques that may help investors see why the stock still looks attractive at its current price point. TSMC's growth is off the charts... Before diving into TSMC's financial profile, it's worth reviewing how the company fits into the broader AI picture. Companies such as Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom have enjoyed record growth over the last few years thanks to booming demand for their GPU clusters and data center networking equipment. At the same time, hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet have experienced surging growth across their integrated AI ecosystems -- including applications in cloud computing infrastructure, cybersecurity, workplace productivity software, and more. While rising capital expenditures represent strong tailwinds for GPU and custom ASIC businesses, the trend is arguably even more favorable for foundry services such as TSMC. Why is that? Simply put, it actually manufactures many of the chipsets and systems equipment sold by the companies referenced above. Budget increases for chips and infrastructure represent a hidden -- and often overlooked -- tailwind for TSMC, regardless of whose chips are in demand. TSMC's mission-critical fabrication solutions provide the company with significant pricing power. These dynamics can be seen from the financial profile above, underscored by the company's steepening revenue growth trend in parallel with improving gross profit margins. ... and it appears it can sustain this growth One of the interesting aspects of TSMC's investor materials is that the company publishes revenue growth reports on a monthly basis rather than solely in a quarterly report. In the table below, I've summarized the company's monthly revenue growth throughout 2025: Category January February March April May June July Revenue growth YoY 35.9% 43.1% 46.5% 48.1% 39.6% 26.9% 25.8% Data source: TSMC Investor Relations. During the second quarter, TSMC generated $30 billion in sales thanks to continued demand for highly coveted 5nm and 3nm chip nodes. Revenue growth seems to have stalled a bit in June and July, but I do not see this as a long-term trend. Keep in mind that new GPU architectures such as Nvidia's Blackwell and AMD's MI350 and MI400 series are still in early stages of rollout and development. As infrastructure spending continues to accelerate across the AI landscape, TSMC is in position to benefit from such robust secular themes. Why I think TSMC stock is dirt cheap Common valuation methodologies often include ratios such as price-to-sales (P/S) or price-to-earnings (P/E). These metrics can be helpful when benchmarking a company against a set of peers, but they can be misleading when these ratios begin to expand meaningfully. For example, if you take a look at the chart below, you'll notice that TSMC's P/S and P/E multiples have risen throughout the AI revolution. Such a degree of valuation expansion might lead investors to believe that the stock is overbought and has become pricey. While such logic has merit, it does not always apply. A more nuanced way to value the chipmaker is by using its price/earnings-to-growth ratio (PEG), a metric popularized by legendary fund manager Peter Lynch. Essentially, it accounts for the P/E ratio as well as the earnings growth over a period of time. A good rule of thumb is that a PEG ratio below 1.0 signals that the stock is undervalued. Per the chart above, the stock has a PEG ratio based on next year's earnings of 0.6. I think the PEG ratio compression illustrated above can be attributed to a few factors. Wall Street's bullish view calls for the anticipation of accelerating earnings from TSMC supported by ongoing AI infrastructure spend. However, increased earnings revisions are likely outpacing appreciation in Taiwan Semi stock -- basically normalizing the company's PEG ratio without a sell-off as the primary driver. In addition, I think the market might be underpricing TSMC due to broader macro uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions with China or general cyclicality of the chip market. The combination of PEG ratio compression and a robust financial outlook could make the stock a textbook candidate for investors seeking growth at a reasonable price. To me, the stock is dirt cheap at its current price point relative to its growth. Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to take advantage of this rare opportunity to own a chip stock positioned to ride and dominate the AI infrastructure wave. While many semiconductor and AI stocks continue to trade at a premium, TSMC appears to be an undervalued opportunity anchored amid a sea of frothy valuations. Should you invest $1,000 in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing right now? Before you buy stock in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $663,630!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,115,695!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,071% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 185% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of August 13, 2025 Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Is Dirt Cheap Compared to Its Growth was originally published by The Motley Fool

Is Amcor plc (NYSE:AMCR) Trading At A 44% Discount?
Is Amcor plc (NYSE:AMCR) Trading At A 44% Discount?

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Is Amcor plc (NYSE:AMCR) Trading At A 44% Discount?

Explore Amcor's Fair Values from the Community and select yours Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Amcor fair value estimate is US$15.55 Amcor's US$8.73 share price signals that it might be 44% undervalued Analyst price target for AMCR is US$11.04 which is 29% below our fair value estimate Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Amcor plc (NYSE:AMCR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. What's The Estimated Valuation? We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$1.69b US$2.05b US$1.90b US$1.82b US$1.79b US$1.78b US$1.79b US$1.82b US$1.85b US$1.89b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x7 Analyst x1 Est @ -3.96% Est @ -1.85% Est @ -0.37% Est @ 0.66% Est @ 1.39% Est @ 1.90% Est @ 2.25% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.3% US$1.6k US$1.8k US$1.5k US$1.4k US$1.3k US$1.2k US$1.1k US$1.0k US$984 US$938 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$13b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.3%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2035 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.9b× (1 + 3.1%) ÷ (7.3%– 3.1%) = US$47b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$47b÷ ( 1 + 7.3%)10= US$23b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$36b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$8.7, the company appears quite good value at a 44% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. Important Assumptions The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Amcor as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.995. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for Amcor SWOT Analysis for Amcor Strength Debt is well covered by earnings. Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market. Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%. Threat Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows. Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year. Looking Ahead: Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Amcor, there are three further factors you should consider: Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with Amcor (including 3 which are significant) . Future Earnings: How does AMCR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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