Tech IPOs, stocks strong despite Israel–Iran: Market Takeaways

Yahoo

3 hours ago

Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer joins Asking for a Trend with Josh Lipton to discuss two main takeaways of the trading day: US markets (^DJI, ^GSPC, ^IXIC) staying resilient despite escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, and tech companies that recently went public continuing to outperform, like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Circle (CRCL).
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US stocks closing higher in today's trade amid hopes that Israel Iran conflict stays contained. Yahoo Finances, Josh Shafer joins us now with the trading day takeaways. Josh?
Yeah Josh, you just hit on really what takeaway one has been over the past couple days of action, right? So you had this escalating conflict in the Middle East between Iran and Israel. There's been continuing news there, there's a report from the Wall Street Journal this morning that said perhaps Iran wants to de-escalate this conflict. That kind of gave us our direction for the day here uh with the S&P 500 up almost 1%. You zoom out to it two day, really not a ton has happened, right? So 6,033 for the SPX, that's basically where we were before this. Um which I thought was just interesting to sort of take that look at it, right? You start to look over a three day period, even at oil, which has been moving quite a bit of course on Middle East tensions, as it normally would. It's really it it hasn't moved that much over a three-day period, right? And so it seems like largely right now the take from the street is unless this significantly escalates and there starts to be concerns about oil supply that would drive prices higher, it's a little bit of a shoulder shrug from a stock perspective at least at this point.
I know you were writing about this today, Josh. When it comes to oil, what what are the levels we should be watching?
Yeah, so so the whole thing here that like if I was an investor, why I would be overly concerned about this, is you get a spike in oil prices that would drive up inflation, maybe even potentially weigh on the consumer wallet, right? We'd be paying more for gas, maybe that's an issue, maybe the fed isn't able to cut because of inflation. But you need a big, big oil spike. So what we're looking at here, this is a uh chart from Datatrack Research, Nicholas over there. And what he highlighted is on a year-over-year basis, normally WTI would go up about 100% if we was in oil spike that would then lead to a recession. That area I just circled was the early 2000s recession. You can see in '08, you also got about 100% spike. And then if you go back to the late '80s, you also saw near 100% spike. We're just not even close to that right now. So to give you an idea, I believe on WTI which I just had up here, Colis highlighted 120 would be your line in the sand. We're trading at 70 bucks, right? So that's a big move higher in oil for us to start getting overall concerned about the trajectory of the US economy. So right now it just seems like there's not enough of a move in oil for investors to be worried about all those other fallouts.
All right. Shafer, bullet point number two.
Bullet point number two, Josh. I want to just look at some interesting market action we've seen. So takeaway two here is just these IPOs that we've seen taking off. So today Circle was up over 20%. You saw core weave also take off over 20%. And an interesting trend within that has just been the tech IPOs versus the rest of the market. So this is research from Carson Research. This is dating back to about, I believe it was last Wednesday, so it's not fresh as of today. But tech IPOs since 2024, Josh, since their deal price up 108%. Then you flip over to the non-tech IPOs, only 50%. So you're seeing a bias in the market right now for the AI trade, stable coins, cryptos, those caught ideas continue to take off on a day-to-day basis.
Yeah, I talked to Greg Martin over at Rainmaker recently and I was asking Greg like what is just his general outlook on the IPO market? It was interesting because he said he did expect a rush of new listings, but then he said he wasn't sure how long the IPO window would stay open because he said all these uncertainties, economy and tariffs, and that that by the way was before Israel, Iran went red hot. So I I think he kind of described his view as sort of, I think he said cautiously optimistic.
Yeah, for the overall right, and I mean we even talked to a strategist recently that wouldn't highlight the overall uncertainty vibe, not really leaving, right? But I think to sort of tie this together too with what we're seeing in the market, a lot of risk on in a lot of areas that are normally sort of circled as speculative tech or these emerging technologies. I'm looking at a quantum computing stock up 27% today, Josh. I mean, that is a large move you're seeing in the market. One other one I've been keeping an eye on too, Kathy Wood and Arc Invest. Look at this fund over the last month. Kathy Wood's fund is now up, I think over 10%. It's up 11% in a month. They hold a stock like Palantir that was at an all-time high. You're seeing that bid in this market again.
All right. Thank you, Josh.
Appreciate it.