Inside the conclave: the politics of choosing a new pope

Times

22-04-2025

It is almost impossible to plot church politics on the left-right spectrum traditionally used for secular leaders and parties, but the approaching conclave behind the locked doors of the Sistine Chapel will still be highly political, experts have said.
The conclave itself is still at least two weeks away, but discussions have already started, with 135 cardinals from around the globe asked to be in the Vatican by 9am on April 22, less than 26 hours after Pope Francis drew his final breath.
Cardinal Vincent Nichols was packing his bags and heading to the airport on Tuesday morning, with his fellow Englishman Timothy Radcliffe having travelled out the day before.
More than a hundred other cardinals who are aged over 80 and therefore too old to vote in the conclave — including the Englishman Michael Fitzgerald, who took an early flight on Tuesday — are also expected to descend on Rome to play their role in the conversations.
These are known as 'general congregations', where cardinals discuss the challenges facing the Catholic church as they prepare to elect the man they want to tackle them.
The film Conclave, starring Ralph Fiennes and John Lithgow, depicts a battle between conservatives and liberals, with each faction wanting to elect a candidate from their tribe, aware that the next pope will shape the Vatican's culture, attitude and direction for many years to come.
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The use of the terms 'right' and 'left' only came into use after the French Revolution in 1789. Asking if the next pope will be more 'right wing' than Francis is therefore the 'wrong question,' said Madoc Cairns, editor of Plough, a quarterly Christian magazine.
'Catholicism is nine times older than the left-right paradigm,' he said. 'There's no way to plot conclave politics on less than twenty different axes, several of which operate on non-physical planes and three of which are about being Italian.'
For those of us watching from outside, there is little way to know what is going on within the chapel's walls until we see smoke emerge from the chimney.
The words 'extra omnes', which translates to 'everyone out', are declared, and the voting cardinals are locked in. A single vote is taken on the first day. After this, two votes are taken each day in the morning and two more in the afternoon until one candidate has a two-thirds majority. It took a little over 24 hours to elect Francis, but it took five days in 1922.
After each vote, the ballots are burned, sending smoke up the chimney. If the smoke is black, no decision has been reached. When a new pope has been chosen, different chemicals, similar to those used in fireworks, are added to turn the smoke white and inform the outside world.
But how much lobbying goes on in quiet corners before the conclave begins and between the votes? Is there any horse-trading between factions in the lunch queue or over nightcaps in their sleeping quarters? How do those seen as frontrunners let it be known whether they would like the job?
Rules set out in a decree by Pope John Paul II state that there must be 'absolutely no violation of secrecy' about what goes on in and around the chapel, backed up by the threat of 'automatic excommunication', the worst punishment the church can mete out to a Catholic.
The voting cardinals are also told they will be excommunicated if they agree to 'any form of pact, agreement, promise or other commitment of any kind which could oblige them to give or deny their vote to a person'.
This may be seen to refer specifically to bribery or coercive behaviour, however, with John Paul II having noted: 'It is not my intention to forbid the exchange of views concerning the election.'
This gives cardinals leeway to undertake a certain amount of lobbying, said Brenden Thompson, chief executive of Catholic Voices, but they need to get most of this done before the conclave kicks off.
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'There is something beautiful and timeless about the way a conclave happens,' he said. 'If you're not predisposed to like Catholicism, it looks very secretive, like there's something very dodgy here. But they are trying to … choose somebody who is going to be a spiritual leader to a third of the world, so you want them to take that gravely and seriously'.
Most of the cardinals will never have met each other or taken part in a conclave, so will be undertaking their own crash-course on how the process works, Thompson said.
'They are human beings, so there's always going to be an inevitable amount of politics. They will have their own emphases and styles and [will know] whether they're looking for someone who is like Francis, a kind of continuity candidate, or want someone to be a contrast.
'Some may have their minds made up and know particular cardinals, but will be open to hearing [others].'
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Different issues will be important to different people, from gay and women's rights to the role of synods in shaping the church. 'A lot of those things will be flashpoints', Thompson said.
Some may be 'harbouring secret intentions' in wanting to be pope but will not want to be accused of careerism by openly lobbying for the role.
'It looks very poor form for someone to look like they are … clearly itching for the job,' Thompson said. 'I think it happens in subtle ways, if someone lets it be known they have the credentials'.
Cut off from the outside world, the cardinals are staying together in Casa Santa Marta. 'When they're in the apartments, they can have informal conversations,' Thompson said, because they ultimately need to coalesce around one candidate.
'You have to be able to start asking other people: 'What do you think?' and have to shift and change votes,' he said.
Amid all the lobbying and the prayers, one thing remains true. The naming of a new Archbishop of Canterbury could take a full year from Justin Welby's announcement of his resignation, but the election of a new pope has a brutal efficiency to it.
Thompson said: 'What it is, is a really stubborn attempt at saying: 'We're going to keep voting until someone comes out.''