Meta's AI Innovations Drive $850 Price Target as Analysts See Strong Q2 Ahead
The firm is optimistic about Meta's second Q2 results and believes that the setup is compelling as it moves into FY26.
'We expect Meta to report solid Q2 results, with ad revenue growth remaining in the mid-teens y/y despite some modest q/q deceleration, in part reflecting tariff-driven uncertainty impacting budget deployments in the earlier part of the quarter. Growth likely remained buoyed by continued AI-driven improvements to content creation and ads recommendation models, with Meta having introduced a new generative ads recommendation model in Q1 that is twice as efficient at improving ad performance as legacy models. Looking ahead, we expect the pace of innovation to remain robust given recent AI investments, including acquiring 49% stake in Scale AI, hiring OpenAI and Apple researchers, unveiling Meta Superintelligence labs, and acquiring voice AI startup PlayAI.
Copyright: buchachon / 123RF Stock Photo
"These investments, coupled with the technical infrastructure build out, should support Meta's reported goal of enabling brands to fully create and target ads using AI by the end of 2026, among other initiatives. For Q2, we forecast ad revenue and total revenue to both increase ~14% y/y (vs. +16% y/y in Q1), with the modest q/q deceleration in part reflecting tariff-related uncertainty, and we expect OI of $16.7B, 37.5% margin, modestly below consensus. Given the recent investments Meta has been making in AI engineers/researchers, we do see some increased upside risk to FY25 OpEx guidance. That said, in addition to continued improvements to core monetization functions, Meta has several new tailwinds that should progressively build, including further automation of key advertiser functions, ads on WhatsApp and Threads, and a potential general release of the WhatsApp Business' chatbot offering. While we acknowledge shares are trading near all-time highs, we continue to think the setup is compelling, particularly as we move into FY26.'
While we acknowledge the potential of META as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
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