‘Squid Game' Emmy predictions: Netflix's most popular drama still in play for these categories

Yahoo

6 hours ago

When it comes to the 2025 Emmys, it's not yet game over.
The Netflix thriller Squid Game made a major splash at the 2022 ceremony, earning 14 nominations for its first season, including Best Drama Series. The show brought home six awards that year: Best Actor for Lee Jung-jae, Best Directing ('Red Light, Green Light'), Best Drama Guest Actress for Lee Yoo-mi, Best Production Design ('Kkanbu'), Best Stunt Performance ('Stick to the Team'), and Best Visual Effects ('VIPs'). Three years later, Squid Game's second season continued to captivate audiences, logging over 192 million views on Netflix — behind only the show's record-breaking first season in 2021 (265 million) and the first season of Wednesday in 2022 (252 million).
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According to Gold Derby's latest odds, Squid Game is unlikely to match its impressive 14 nominations from Season 1. But are we underestimating this beloved series as it gears up to premiere its third and final season on June 27?
With eight slots available for Best Drama, Squid Game is barely holding onto the eighth position. Clear front-runners include Severance, The Pitt, The White Lotus, and The Last of Us, followed by strong contenders Slow Horses, Andor, and The Diplomat. Squid Game is now locked in a tight race for the final spot, facing stiff competition from newcomer Paradise and former nominee The Handmaid's Tale. While the second season of Squid Game wasn't as critically acclaimed as the first — scoring 83 percent on Rotten Tomatoes compared to 95 percent for Season 1 — it remains undeniably one of the most-watched and talked-about shows of this television season.
Netflix
"I wanted to create a show that was entertaining to watch, that people could enjoy," creator Hwang Dong-hyuk told Gold Derby. "After you enjoy watching the show, I wanted the show to give audiences some food for thought — maybe some conversation starters after watching it together with people that are close to [them]. Maybe you could talk about some of the themes that are explored in the show. I thought that that would be a nice bonus."
Three years ago, Lee Jung-jae made history as the first Asian man to win Best Drama Actor and the first to win for a non-English show. Could he really go from winning to falling completely off the ballot for Season 2? That's what our Best Drama Actor odds suggest. He's currently ranked 10th, and his chances aren't helped by the fact that the category will be limited to just five nominees this year. The last actor to go from winning to not receiving a nomination was 2016 champ Rami Malek for Mr. Robot.
Will The White Lotus dominate the Drama Supporting Actress category again, as it did two years ago when it claimed five of the eight slots? It's certainly possible, and with only seven slots available this year, the competition is tougher than ever — bad news for anyone trying to break through. While other shows will certainly be represented in this category, it seems like an unlikely spot for Squid Game to make its mark. Currently, Kang Ae-shim, for her role as protective mother Jang Geum-ja (Player 149), and Park Gyu-young as Kang No-eul, the determined North Korean defector fighting to save her daughter, are ranked 19th and 20th, respectively.
Netflix
Choi Seung-hyun (aka T.O.P.) is ranked ninth for Best Drama Supporting Actor for his portrayal of Thanos (Player 230), a rapper who joined Squid Game after incurring debts due to a failed cryptocurrency investment. "While he is a villain, he's not like a very villainous villain, but I think he's more of a loser guy," the actor told Gold Derby. "He's got a few screws loose, and he's a little bit clumsy. I think that's what makes him a little bit adorable to people." Although this category looks poised to be dominated by names from The White Lotus and Severance, Squid Game is certainly still in the mix in this seven-person field. Also in contention are Season 1 survivor Lee Byung-hun as the Front Man, currently ranked 14th, and Park Sung-hoon as heroic trans ex-soldier Hyun-ju (Player 120) in 16th place.
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The Guest Drama Actor category seems like an open race, with six nominees making the final ballot and no clear front-runner dominating the conversation. Sitting in eighth place is Gong Yoo, who reprises his role as the Recruiter in a showcase episode this season. In "Bread and Lottery," Recruiter tempts the unhoused and impoverished with a choice between bread or a lottery ticket. He later comes face to face with Gi-hun and proposes an irresistible deal, leading to a deadly game of Russian roulette.
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Squid Game played it smart by submitting just one episode, "Bread and Lottery," for writing, penned by creator and showrunner Hwang. In "Bread and Water," a vengeful Gi-hun (Lee Jung-jai) makes a U-turn at the airport. Later, in his hideout, he intensifies his search for the elusive Recruiter (Gong Yoo), who is seeking new players. Hwang earned an Emmy nomination in 2022 for writing "One Lucky Day," so he might be feeling lucky again this year. Tough competition will come from last year's winner, Slow Horses, which submitted Will Smith's Season 4 finale, "Hello Goodbye." Also in contention for the six slots in this category are three episodes from The Pitt ("7:00 A.M.," "10:00 A.M.," and "2:00 P.M."), the Season 2 finale of Severance ("Cold Harbor"), one episode of The White Lotus ("Full Moon Party"), and "Through the Valley" from The Last of Us.
As with writing, Squid Game has submitted a single episode for Best Drama Directing in Season 2. Since Hwang wrote and directed every episode, the Netflix series benefits from being able to select its strongest submission without risking internal competition among contenders. This year, Hwang opted for "O X" as his directing submission, an episode in which Jun-ho (Wi Ha-joon) and his team prepare to infiltrate a suspicious island. As tensions and monetary stakes continue to escalate, players are forced to split into two opposing factions, pushing the survival drama to new heights. Hwang previously won this category in 2022 for directing the iconic "Red Light, Green Light" episode. Among the top contenders competing for one of the seven directing slots this year are three episodes from The Pitt, three from Severance, one from The White Lotus, and one from Slow Horses.
Netflix
There are plenty more categories in play for Squid Game, even if it's considered a dark horse in most of the above-the-line races this year. As mentioned earlier, the crafts-heavy series previously won Emmys for production design, stunts, and visual effects three years ago — making it a strong contender in each of those categories once again. Additionally, Squid Game was a prior nominee for both editing and cinematography, areas where it continues to showcase strength this year. The series was also submitted for costumes, makeup/hairstyling, original dramatic score, and sound.
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