The week that was in international affairs: Trump's 'U-turn' on Putin; Estonia conducts HIMARS drill
Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly round-up of top international news. This week we are covering Trump's possible U-turn on
Putin
, Estonia and the Baltics get ready with HIMARS, EU unveils its 18th sanctions package, Israel attacks Syria, turmoil in Bangladesh, and a bonus about the singing chief rabbi of Ukraine:
Trump U-turn on Putin?:
Trump made statements on Putin that could be characterised as a big shift in his administration's approach to the war in Ukraine.
Trump said that he was very disappointed in Putin, that the Russian leader would engage in pleasant conversation with him but then bomb Ukraine.
He added that he thought a deal to end the war was on the cards at least four times in the last six months, but Putin did not come through.
Simultaneously, Trump finally announced a new $10bn military aid package for Ukraine that would include additional Patriot air defence systems that Ukraine desperately needs amid Russia's heightened aerial attacks on Ukrainian towns and cities.
The package, Trump said, would be fully paid for by US's European Nato allies that could see them send over their systems to Ukraine and then replace them with new American ones.
Interestingly, Trump was also contemplating sending Ukraine Tomahawk cruise missiles. But that, however, is not going to be part of the current package. In fact, according to some reports, during Trump's latest conversation with Zelenskyy, he asked why Kyiv wasn't targeting Moscow.
To which Zelenskyy reportedly responded that Ukraine could if it had the American weapons. Trump then also floated the idea of targeting St Petersburg.
Additionally, Trump gave Putin a 50-day deadline after which he has threatened to slap 100% tariffs, both on Russian exports to US (which are not that much) and on those countries that buy Russian exports, including oil. The latter secondary sanctions are really significant and could seriously put an economic squeeze on Russia.
After all, Moscow has managed to sustain this war because even though it has been largely cut off from the Western market, it continues to make billions by selling its oil and gas to other countries like China and India.
But if those countries are slapped with 100% tariffs on their exports to the US, that will certainly deter them from buying Russian energy.
Taken together, it seems that Trump is finally changing his view of Putin, and perhaps now realises that Moscow has no intention to end the war in Ukraine any time soon.
And if China engages in military adventurism in the Indo-Pacific, especially against Taiwan, while the war in Europe continues, US military resources will be badly divided. Hence, the need to end the war in Ukraine quickly. And maybe, just maybe, Trump realises that the only way to do that is by increasing pressure on Moscow.
Estonia conducts HIMARS drill:
Estonia conducted its first live-fire HIMARS multiple rocket launch system drill following four months of training.
Russia, predictably, accused the Baltic state of provocative actions and said that Moscow would defend its interests in the region. But all of this was started by Russia itself. In April, Moscow had accused Nato of escalating things along Russia's borders and warned that the Baltics and Poland would be the first to suffer in case of a wider conflict.
Ironic, given what Russia has done in Ukraine over the last three years.
The fact is Russia is already engaging in grey-zone tactics in the Baltics, and Estonia has been a prime target of Russian cyber security attacks – Tallinn fends off thousands of these every day. This is precisely why Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are boosting their defence spending and taking security measures to thwart a possible Russian attack. The Baltic Defence Line's construction is already underway. The Baltic Nato members know that after Ukraine, if Russia is to test Nato's resolve, it will be here in the Baltics.
And this is where China's plans also come in as mentioned in the previous segment. If Beijing decides to attack Taiwan for its own political reasons, it would logically want Russia to expand the war in Europe to divide Nato and American forces. And the Russians will most likely oblige by targeting the Baltics. Thus, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania preparing for all eventualities by shoring up their military depth – through HIMARS and other systems – is understandable.
EU unveils 18th sanctions package:
The European bloc unveiled its 18th sanctions package against Russia over its war in Ukraine after Slovakia lifted its veto. Slovakia, which relies significantly on Russian energy, wanted written assurances on the planned phase-out of Russian gas. That said, the unveiled package is being described as the strongest yet, targeting Russian oil, Moscow's shadow fleet, Chinese banks helping Moscow evade sanctions and even those Russian entities indoctrinating Ukrainian children.
Significantly, the package includes lowering the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel to undercut Moscow's energy revenues that feed its war machinery. The package also targets for the first time a flag registry and Russian oil giant Rosneft's biggest
Indian refinery.
It also blocks tech exports used in Russian drones, and includes measures against 105 vessels of the Russian shadow fleet.
These measures are certainly comprehensive.
However, it remains to be seen if they will bring Moscow to the negotiating table. Given Russia's imperialist ideological motivations for the war, Moscow is riding a tiger and won't get off unless it is compelled to. And now Russia is also beholden to China and its strategic calculations. Therefore, EU must keep up the support for Ukraine.
Israel attacks Syria:
Israel struck Syrian forces in the southern Syrian city of Sweida and the Syrian defence ministry in Damascus after clashes broke out between Sweida's Druze community and Sunni Bedouin tribesmen.
Israel, which has its own Druze population, says it was acting at the behest of the minority Druze community in Syria. Although there is some semblance of truce in Sweida at the time of writing, the situation remains volatile.
The episode puts the new Syrian government, established after the ouster of Bashar al-Assad last December, in potential conflict with Tel Aviv.
But honestly, Israel can't be militarily intervening in every internal matter of regional countries.
Note that the US has not backed Israel's strikes on Syria this time. If Tel Aviv continues on this path, it could only mean one thing: that Netanyahu does not want to give up his war-time powers in Israel, and wants to be in a perpetual state of conflict.
Turmoil in Bangladesh:
Clashes took place in Bangladesh's Gopalganj between supporters of Awami League and security forces in which four people lost their lives. Gopalganj is the birthplace of Bangladesh's founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
The skirmishes began after a rally of the National Citizen Party (NCP), which had played a key role in the ouster of Sheikh Hasina last year. It's quite apparent that the NCP rally had been organised to provoke Awami supporters in Gopalganj.
After all, elements of the current Bangladeshi interim government have been busy cleansing all state institutions of Awami supporters and sympathisers. This is bound to have a reaction.
In fact, what the so-called student leaders of the interim government are doing is no different from what they accused the Hasina dispensation of carrying out. If the latter had developed autocratic tendencies in its final moments, how is targeting Awami supporters, who too are Bangladeshi citizens, any less autocratic? Plus, this hardly creates a conducive environment for elections scheduled for April next year.
If things continue in the same vein, Bangladesh will simply be repeating its cycle of political violence and vendetta. And interim government chief, Muhammad Yunus, would have only sullied his reputation.
Bonus:
Finally, this week's bonus is about the Chief Rabbi of Ukraine, Moshe Reuven Azman, who has recorded a song for Trump, urging him to support Ukraine's defence against Russian aggression. Moshe Azman himself lost his son in the war. The video is some weeks old but still quite interesting. Follow the link below to check it out:
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/16tE9ThLm1/
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