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Yahoo
16 hours ago
- Yahoo
July retail sales rise 0.5%: What it means for the Fed
Retail sales climbed 0.5% in July, coming in slightly below Wall Street estimates, according to fresh data from the Census Bureau. Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Allie Canal joins Morning Brief with Julie Hyman to discuss the details and what the numbers mean for the Federal Reserve going into the September FOMC meeting. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief. Ali, I'll start with you and that retail sales number, which I'm afraid doesn't make anything easier for the Fed, right? Sort of makes things murkier in terms of the economic picture. Right. It came in broadly stable, roughly in line with estimates, the second straight month that we've seen this uptick. We also saw May and June's numbers revised higher. So that shows the consumer is still spending. I'm looking at my inbox right now. Capital Economics out with their reaction, saying that this report shows households continue to spend in healthy amounts despite the threat of tariffs, especially given the increase in sales in areas which have experienced tariff-induced price pressures recently. And if we take a look under the hood at some of the categories that saw the biggest gains, we saw furniture up 1.4%, recreational commodity stores up 0.8%, cars and parts up 1.6%, and that was on the back of greater incentives that we saw last month as well. So seeing a lot of that resiliency, that being said, there were some signs of caution. For example, restaurants and bar sales that declined by 0.4%. We also saw electronic sales fall. Now that may reflect some of those tariff induced pricing pressures. But overall, we are seeing this resilient consumer, and that is key for the Fed, a consumer that continues to spend, but they're only going to continue to spend if they have a job. So that circles back to the labor side of the equation. That's why that is so important when it comes to the Fed's dual mandate. Of course, earlier this week, we saw that hotter than expected PPI print coming in at a three-year high. That complicates things for the Fed as it moves forward because they want to make sure that they have the labor market that is so solid that it can continue to support that consumer, but they don't want inflation to run away. So like you were saying, it really does not help the Fed when it comes to their decision next month. Related Videos Consumer health is 'relatively sunny,' but some risks persist What economists are saying about inflation now What Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium could mean for markets Markets still expect Sept. Fed rate cut, despite hot PPI data Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Yahoo
PPI comes in hot: When will wholesale inflation hit consumers?
Markets are digesting hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data, with rising services costs raising new concerns for the Federal Reserve. Yahoo Finance Senior Reporters Jennifer Schonberger joins Morning Brief with Julie Hyman to break down how the new data could influence interest rate cut expectations heading into the Fed's September meeting. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief. Jen, I want to start with you and that wholesale inflation data, which is a bit of a shocker. Yeah, it was definitely much hotter than expected by a long shot, right? Look at those numbers. Month over month, nine tenths of a percent versus two tenths of a percent that was expected. So prices certainly heating up for businesses. The question now is at what point does this translate over into CPI, right? Will businesses be pushing those cost increases onto consumers at some point? Um I'm also looking at, we we know that the Fed looks at the personal consumption expenditures index. And today's report PPI in conjunction with CPI that we got earlier uh this week are data from both reports are taken together for that PCE number, which we will get at the end of the month. Uh on its face, I would expect PCE to warm up based on uh the PPI data that we got this morning. I just got a note from Capital Economics. Um they are estimating the three month annualized rate would jump back up to 3.2% from 2.7 on core PCE. That certainly would be moving the Fed in the wrong direction. As for what this means for the Fed, I think it continues to put them in a conundrum between a rock and a hard place, where both sides of their dual mandate are seemingly coming into conflict, right? The hawks have been saying, we need to wait and see whether tariffs create inflation that's going to be passed on to consumers. Today's report is, as far as businesses are concerned, looks like we're starting to see the width of that. The question is, does that get passed on? Right? The president has said no, foreign governments, businesses are paying for this. Goldman Sachs has said businesses are paying for 64% of this right now, but it's gonna get passed on to consumers. So maybe this keeps many of those folks who are in that wait and see posture, continuing in that posture. And then on the other side, right, we had that weaker than expected jobs report, and we have folks like San Francisco, um Mary Daly coming out and saying, I'm worried about the trajectory of the job market more than inflation. So I don't think that this report solves anything this morning.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Yahoo
Mortgage rates dip below 6%: What this means for homebuyers
Mortgage rates are falling, with the 15-year rate dropping below 6% for the first time since February, according to the Mortgage Bank Association. Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Claire Boston joins Market Catalysts with Julie Hyman to explain what easing rates and slowing shelter costs could mean for buyers. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts. US mortgage rates dropped last week by the most since February. That's according to data from the mortgage bankers association. The rate on the 15-year mortgage fell below 6% for the first time in 4 months, matching its lowest level since October. The news comes as government data showed shelter costs continue to decelerate in July, though they still outpaced overall inflation. Joining me now, Danielle Hale, chief economist, and Yahoo Finance senior housing reporter, Claire Boston. Before we sort of dig into the shelter costs broadly, Claire, I do want to start with you just on this mortgage bankers, the latest rate news, that it is coming down. I imagine this is welcome news for folks who are trying to move, since we have seen those rates so persistently high. Yeah, Julie, you know, anything really helps here since we've pretty much been stuck at this kind of high 6% space for pretty much all of this year. Um, that being said, when I'm looking at this MBA application data, what sticks out to me is that we have not really seen an uptake in purchases yet. So, you know, that suggests to me, um, you know, people who are sitting on the sidelines are not jumping back in with rates a little bit lower. We are seeing refis tick up quite a bit though. So, you know, maybe if you have a 7% or higher mortgage rate, you know, getting a little bit of a drop here is going to entice you to refi, but we'll see kind of what happens in the coming weeks. Related Videos CoreWeave earnings don't answer the big question bears are asking Starbucks turnaround check-in: 1 yr. since CEO shake-up D-Wave CEO talks quantum computing's capabilities & what's next Cava stock plunges on Q2 results: CEO explains what happened Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
