Will the future of Asia be one of conflict or cooperation?
Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said the world stands on the precipice of a 'once-in-a-century turning point in history'. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
News analysis Will the future of Asia be one of conflict or cooperation?
– The 21st century is meant to be the 'Asian century', but will the world's largest continent live up to its brimming potential, or will it be derailed by conflict?
This was the biggest question weighing on the minds of politicians, business leaders and academics who convened in Tokyo for the Future Of Asia conference, held by Japanese media conglomerate Nikkei Inc on May 29-30.
Many attendees sounded the clarion call for solidarity and unity, saying that only by entrenching cooperation can the world overcome its many fissures.
Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, citing wars, pandemics and financial turmoil, said the world stands on the precipice of a 'once-in-a-century turning point in history'.
'When we look at each of the events that are happening, it is hard not to feel the similarities between today and 100 years ago,' he said. 'A stable international order is no longer a given.'
That is an ominous message for a flagship forum – of which The Straits Times is a media partner – that is celebrating its milestone 30th year. Is the future of Asia doomed?
Plenty of positivity was dished up over two days of speeches which were, however, lacking in substantive suggestions for action.
What was of note, however, were some young participants who gave a glimpse of what the future might hold with their innovative ideas and their optimism.
First up was Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, who said: 'Asia, home to more than half of humanity, sits at the epicentre of uncertainty. It is also at the centre of possibility at the same time.'
Although he warned that 'cooperation is not always guaranteed', he pointed to the region's 'formidable collective strength'.
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet described Asia as 'relatively peaceful, stable and prosperous, at least for the moment', even as a Cambodian soldier was killed in gunfire with the Thai military during a brief clash on May 28 on a disputed stretch of the border between Cambodia and Thailand.
Mr Jin Liqun, head of China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, insisted: 'Asia can maintain its growth regardless of what's happening in the rest of the world.'
Yet it is impossible to ignore the undercurrents of uncertainty and tumult as the world experiences whiplash from United States President Donald Trump's unpredictable policies.
The restrictions on international students enrolling in US universities is an affront to the role that education plays in innovation and in fostering the exchange of ideas across continents and political divides.
The effective abolition of the US Agency for International Development, which provides aid to about 130 countries and regions, inflicts more suffering on the impoverished people in these areas.
The US pullout from the Paris Agreement on climate change ignores climate risks that threaten countries worldwide, particularly those in vulnerable regions such as South Asia and Africa.
What has been most disruptive, however, are Mr Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs imposed on more than 100 of America's trading partners and ranging from 10 per cent to 50 per cent.
On pause for 90 days from April 9 while negotiations take place, they form an assault on the rules-based multilateral trading order.
Former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, speaking at the forum, pointedly said that Mr Trump has effectively made 'the whole world the enemy'.
It became clear that weaker economies are lower down the pecking order for tariff negotiations – major economies such as the European Union, China and Japan are in the midst of negotiation – when Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith told the conference that Vientiane has reached out for talks but not yet received any response. Laos was hit with a 48 per cent rate.
'Protectionism disrupts the global equilibrium and heightens tension, therefore leading to an increasing risk of armed conflict,' Mr Thongloun said.
Speakers including Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said that a possible antidote to such inward-looking tendencies of the US is to entrench existing partnerships and forge new alliances.
Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa added that a 'renewed commitment to cooperation' was necessary as the Indo-Pacific becomes a theatre for intensifying US-China rivalry.
'The old saying, 'unity is strength', is now more crucial than ever,' he said. 'While we do not seek confrontation, we must protect our interests in a world shaped by the competition of giants.'
It goes without saying, however, that national interests vary from country to country. This can be seen in the vastly different positions adopted by different countries in the unfolding conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
How, then, will countries respond in the event of an accidental conflict in contested waters, as Chinese and Philippine military activities intensify around shoals in the South China Sea over which the two sides have overlapping claims? Or if China invades Taiwan, which Beijing considers a renegade province to be reunified by force if necessary?
To stave off conflict, Mr Ishiba said Japan's position is to continue communicating with China at all levels to build a relationship 'based on true trust (and) common strategic interests for a constructive and stable relationship'.
He also emphasised the need for 'an enduring US commitment to the region at a time of growing Chinese economic and security influence'.
While Mr Ishiba's remarks sound contradictory, they point to the delicate diplomatic tightrope Japan needs to tread, given that it has close economic ties with China but is wary of its giant neighbour in security terms due to their historical tensions and Beijing's growing military power.
But his remarks leave open the question whether China will engage with Japan on the same terms.
For Mr Hun Manet, the solution is clear: 'New tensions are rising in many traditional flash points, so our leaders need to stay united in purpose, strategic in vision and steadfast in collective actions.'
Heavy geopolitics aside, there were some bright sparks at the forum in the form of a young generation of start-up leaders who were invited to discuss social innovation and the prospects for Asian growth.
Among them was Singapore's Mr Kee Cheng Heng, 29, of HelloHolo that uses virtual reality to support language learning.
While most start-ups do not take off, he credited Singapore with having built an environment where failure is a learning journey and 'a badge that you can wear proudly'.
Fellow start-up founder Shunsuke Inoue, 25, of data optimisation company Japan Process Mining Technology, agreed that the tide seems to be turning in Japan which traditionally does not take too kindly to failure. He said: 'I don't think one failure means that you never get another chance.'
The future of Asia, clearly, will lie in its youth and their never-say-die perseverance.
The 84-year-old Dr Yunus summed it up best: 'The future of Asia is not just about economics or geopolitics. It's about people, it's about ideas. It's about the young people wanting to create a new world different from the one they were born in.'
He added: 'Let us be guided not by fear, but by possibilities. Not by power, but by purpose. Let us have the courage to imagine a better world.'
Walter Sim is Japan correspondent at The Straits Times. Based in Tokyo, he writes about political, economic and socio-cultural issues.
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As commoners, the spouses and children would be free to express their opinions that could impugn the imperial family's 'political neutrality and dignity'. It further points to how the unbroken bloodline, across millennia, had been sustained by concubines, with 55 illegitimate children having become Emperors. Meanwhile, traditionalists also favour bringing back members of 11 former branches of the imperial family that were disbande d after World War II, through 'adoption'. It is said that there are at least 10 unmarried male descendants in their 20s or younger among these branches. But the idea has very little traction among the public. Eighty years have passed since the war, and members of these branch families would have grown accustomed to life as commoners, outside the public eye and rigid rules of the imperial household. Kanda University of International Studies lecturer Jeffrey Hall told ST that this plan would 'raise questions about the human rights of the individuals involved', noting that the Yomiuri sees this as 'a more unreliable and unpredictable solution that could dilute public support for the monarchy'. Dr Hall noted that the monarchy is not a major issue for moderate or centre-right voters, although there is a 'very vocal minority' of extreme conservatives who prefer the Sankei to the Yomiuri for 'more consistently taking their side on culture war issues'. While they are not the majority of LDP voters, the party would have difficulty winning elections without their support, he said. 'To many Japanese, the insistence on male-only succession seems to clash with the concepts of gender equality and women's rights,' Dr Hall said. 'But die-hard conservatives will do almost anything to protect what they see as one of their nation's most sacred traditions.' Walter Sim is Japan correspondent at The Straits Times. Based in Tokyo, he writes about political, economic and socio-cultural issues. Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
