It's a homebuyer's market — if you can afford one

Axios

2 days ago

It's a buyer's market in real estate — if you can afford it: There are nearly 500,000 more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market, Redfin estimates.
Why it matters: That's the widest gap on record — and a big reversal from just a few years ago, when home buyers were desperate to find a place to live, sending prices into the stratosphere.
By the numbers: There are 33.7% more sellers than buyers now. At no other point since Redfin began tracking in 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers by this large a percentage.
A year ago, sellers outnumbered buyers by just 6.5%, and two years ago, buyers outnumbered sellers.
Redfin counted sellers as the number of active listings in a given area and created a model to estimate the number of buyers.
Where it stands: The one-two punch of still-high home prices and high mortgage rates is making it hard for buyers, especially first-timers, to find a place they can afford.
Add to that, the extreme economic uncertainty of 2025. Tariff news, layoff fears and, for many federal workers, layoff realities, are tamping down buyer demand.
The other side: For home sellers "the mortgage rate lock-in effect is easing," per Redfin. "For most people, it's not realistic to stay put forever; job changes, return to office mandates and divorce force people to move."
Higher mortgage rates are also becoming normalized. "The idea of taking on a higher mortgage rate also isn't as shocking as it was when rates first skyrocketed in 2022."
Between the lines: Buying a home is still far out of reach for most Americans, as the National Association for Realtors pointed out in a recent report.
The median price of a home sold in the U.S. in the first three months of this year was $417,000, per federal data — 33% more than it was during the same period in 2019, before the housing market went haywire, outpacing inflation and incomes.
What to watch: Historically, when sellers outnumber buyers, prices drop. And in some markets, prices have already started falling.
Home prices fell in 11 of the top 50 most populous U.S. metro areas in the four weeks ended April 20, per Redfin. That includes Austin; Oakland, California; and Tampa, Fla.
Redfin believes prices will dip 1% by the end of the year (not exactly a huge sale, to be sure).