Rupee slips, volatility expectations unruffled by looming tariff deadline
MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Indian rupee declined on Wednesday as the dollar nudged higher ahead of closely watched U.S. economic data, with investors focused on prospects for trade deals ahead of a July 9 deadline.
The rupee closed at 85.7025 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.2% on the day.
Asian currencies declined as well, led by the Malaysian ringgit, which fell 0.7%. The dollar index was up nearly 0.3% and hovering just shy of the 97 handle.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data released on Tuesday offered mild support to the greenback with investors now awaiting a key non-farm payrolls report on Thursday and developments on bilateral trade negotiations.
Despite the looming trade deadline, the rupee's very near-tenor implied volatility, a gauge of future expectations, was hovering a tad below its three-month average, indicating that traders are not yet pricing in the possibility of sharp swings in the near-term.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he was not considering extending the deadline for countries to negotiate trade deals but expects an agreement will be reached with India.
While Trump has ruled out an extension of the deadline, "markets are wary of taking this at face value given recent reversals," ING said in a note.
"The prevailing view may be that global tariff threats peak before another last-minute reprieve," ING said.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect the rupee to be largely rangebound over the next year, trailing Asian peers amidst sustained weakness in the dollar.
In three months, the rupee is forecast to decline 0.1% from current levels to 85.75 per dollar. It is then expected to trade at 85.50 in six months and weaken marginally to 86.13 in a year, according to the median forecast of 41 FX strategists.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
29 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Moody's raises Southern Water's outlook after Macquarie's $1.63 billion boost
(Reuters) -Ratings agency Moody's on Thursday raised Southern Water's outlook to stable from a review for downgrade, after the British water utility secured an equity lifeline from Australia's Macquarie and a credit refinancing to avert a debt crisis. Moody's also confirmed Southern Water's rating at 'Ba1'. The firm's bonds were up on Thursday, adding to the sharp jump they saw after a consortium led by Macquarie Asset Management agreed to inject up to 1.2 billion pounds ($1.64 billion) in Southern Water on Tuesday. While the utility faces performance penalties from Britain's water regulator and potential cost overruns, the equity injection provides Southern Water with enough buffer to maintain its credit quality, Moody's said in a report. ($1 = 0.7331 pounds)
San Francisco Chronicle
31 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
How Ukraine can cope with the US pause on crucial battlefield weapons
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The decision by the United States to pause some weapons shipments to Ukraine has come at a tough time for Kyiv: Russia's bigger army is making a concerted push on parts of the roughly 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line and is intensifying long-range drone and missile attacks that increasingly hammer civilians in Ukrainian cities. Washington has been Ukraine's biggest military backer since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbor on Feb. 24, 2022. But the Trump administration has been disengaging from the war, and no end to the fighting is in sight, despite recent direct peace talks. Specific weapons needed from U.S. Amid recurring concerns in Kyiv about how much military support its allies can supply and how quickly, Ukraine has raced to build up its domestic defense industry. The country's output has gradually grown, especially in the production of more and increasingly sophisticated drones, but Ukraine needs to speedily scale up production. Crucially, some high-tech U.S. weapons are irreplaceable. They include Patriot air defense missiles, which are needed to fend off Russia's frequent ballistic missile attacks, but which cost $4 million each. That vital system is included in the pause, and many cities in Ukraine, including Kyiv, could become increasingly vulnerable. A senior Ukrainian official said Thursday that Patriot systems are 'critically necessary' for Ukraine, but U.S.-made HIMARS precision-guided missiles, also paused, are in less urgent need as other countries produce similar assets. 'Other countries that have these (Patriot) systems can only transfer them with U.S. approval. The real question now is how far the United States is willing to go in its reluctance to support Ukraine,' he told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because of sensitivity of the subject. The official said that Patriot missiles exist in sufficient numbers globally, and he said that accessing them requires political resolve. 'There are enough missiles out there,' he said, without providing evidence. He also stated that Ukraine has already scaled up its domestic production of 155 mm artillery shells, which were once critically short, and is now capable of producing more than is currently contracted. 'Supplies from abroad have also become more available than before,' he said. Backup plan Amid at times fraught relations with U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been enlisting greater European help for his country's arms manufacturing plans. European countries don't have the production levels, military stockpiles or the technology to pick up all the slack left by the U.S. pause, but Zelenskyy is recruiting their help for ambitious joint investment projects. Draft legislation to help Ukrainian defense manufacturers scale up and modernize production, including building new facilities at home and abroad, will be put to a vote in the Ukrainian parliament later this month, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced this week. Zelenskyy said last month that major investments will go to the production of drones and artillery shells. 'The volume of support this year is the largest since the start of the full-scale war,' he said about commitments from foreign countries. Under Trump, there have been no new announcements of U.S. military or weapons aid to Ukraine. Between March and April, the United States allocated no new help at all, according to Germany's Kiel Institute, which tracks such support. For the first time since June 2022, four months after Russia's full-scale invasion, European countries have surpassed the U.S. in total military aid, totaling 72 billion euros ($85 billion) compared with 65 billion euros ($77 billion) from the U.S., the institute said last month. Big battlefield problem Without Patriot missiles, as well as the AIM-7 Sparrow air-to-air missile and shorter-range Stinger missiles that are also included in the pause, Ukrainian cities likely will take a bashing as more Russian missiles pierce air defenses. On the front line, Ukrainian troops haven't recently voiced complaints about ammunition shortages, as they have in the past. They have always said that during the war, they have never had as much ammunition to as their disposal as Russian forces. The army faces a different problem: It's desperately short-handed. It's turning to drones to compensate for its manpower shortage, and analysts say the front isn't about to collapse. 'This is war — and in war, steady deliveries are always crucial,' he said. ___ Barry Hatton reported from Lisbon, Portugal. ___
San Francisco Chronicle
31 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
The US labor market continues to surprise and the unemployment rate, against the odds, is falling
U.S. employers added 147,000 jobs in June as the American labor market continues to show surprising resilience despite uncertainty over President Donald Trump's economic policies. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in May, the Labor Department said Thursday. Hiring rose modestly from a revised 144,000 in May and beat economists expectations of fewer than 118,000 new jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate The U.S. job market has cooled considerably from red-hot days of 2021-2023 when the economy bounced back with unexpected strength from COVID-19 lockdowns and companies were desperate for workers. So far this year, employers have added an average 130,000 jobs a month, down from 168,000 in 2024 and an average 400,000 from 2021 through 2023. And, according to the data released Thursday, it's getting harder to find a new job if you lose one. But the June numbers were surprisingly strong. Healthcare jobs increased by 39,000. State governments added 47,000 workers and local governments 33,000. But the federal government lost 7,000, probably reflecting Trump's hiring freeze. Manufacturers shed 7,000 jobs. Labor Department revisions added 16,000 jobs to April and June payrolls. The number of unemployed people fell by 222,000. Average hourly wages came in cooler than forecasters expected, rising 0.2% from May and 3.7% from a year earlier. The year-over-year number is inching closer to the 3.5% year-over-year number considered consistent with the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. The U.S. labor force — the count of those working and looking for work — fell by 130,000 last month following a 625,000 drop in May. Economists expect Trump's immigration deportations — and the fear of them — to push foreign workers out of the labor force. Hiring decelerated after the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023. But the economy did not collapse, defying widespread predictions that the higher borrowing costs would cause a recession. Companies kept hiring, just at a more modest pace. Employers are now contending with fallout from Trump's policies, especially his aggressive use of import taxes – tariffs. Mainstream economists say that tariffs raise prices for businesses and consumers alike and make the economy less efficient by reducing competition. They also invite retaliatory tariffs from other countries, hurting U.S. exporters. The erratic way that Trump has rolled out his tariffs — announcing and then suspending them, then coming up with new ones — has left businesses bewildered. The upside surprise in June payrolls likely will encourage the Fed to continue its wait-and-see policy of leaving rates unchanged until it has a better idea of how Trump's tariffs and other policies will affect inflation and the job market. The Fed cut rates three times last year after inflation cooled but has turned cautious in 2025. "Today's results are more than positive enough to reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts in the wake of tariffs and policy chaos, at least for now,'' Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a commentary. With unemployment low, most Americans enjoy job security. But as hiring has cooled over the past couple of years it's become harder for young people or those re-entering the workforce to find jobs, leading to longer job searches or longer spells of unemployment. The Labor Department said the number of discouraged workers, who believe no jobs are available for them, rose by 256,000 last month to 637,000. When he was laid off earlier this year from his job as a communications manager for a city government in the Seattle area, Derek Wing braced for the worst. 'The word I would use is: 'terrifying''' to describe the experience, he said. Lots of big local employers like Microsoft continue to cut jobs. And he'd heard horror stories of people applying for jobs and then – crickets. 'I had a couple of experiences where I would apply for a job and just feel like it was going out into the ether and never hearing back,'' he said. But Wing's fortunes turned quickly. He applied for an opening with Gesa Credit Union. 'When I saw the job, it immediately felt right,'' he said. 'I actually told my wife: 'This is the job I want.'' Six weeks later – 'superfast in this economy'' -- he had a job as a communications strategist for Gesa. The Richland, Washington, credit union had revamped its hiring process to be easier and more transparent for applicants when it was tough to find workers in the hiring boom that followed the COVID-19 pandemic. 'It was really an employee's market for a while,'' said Cheryl Adamson, Gesa's chief risk officer. 'Then the winds have shifted a little bit more in favor of the employer.''
