Crossbench MPs expected to again hold power after the Tasmanian state election — how do they plan to use it?
Premier Jeremy Rockliff's government collapsed after just 15 months in June, after a majority of parliamentarians supported a no-confidence motion in him.
An early election was called after the Liberals refused to change leader, and Labor declined to form a minority government with the Greens.
With all polling released during the campaign indicating a hung parliament is the most likely result, both Labor and the Liberals have said they'll attempt to form a minority government with "sensible" independents if they fall short of winning the 18 seats required to form majority.
Clark candidate Ms Johnston and Franklin candidate Mr George have both said they won't sign formal confidence and supply agreements — like those the Liberals signed with the Jacqui Lambie Network and independent David O'Byrne — with a new government.
Ms Johnston — who was elected in 2021 and voted for the no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff — last year committed to supporting the previous government's budgets "on merit", and resolved to assess each no-confidence motion on their merits, eventually supporting all but one.
She said confidence and supply deals were "a thing of the past".
"And that's a matter of what's in front of me on the day."
Mr George also said he didn't intend to sign a confidence and supply agreement with any party.
"I will judge each legislation, each policy, on its merits and that does not mean we'll have an unstable government," he said.
"There are so many good governments around the world which represent many different points of view, that's what democracy is all about.
"That's not going to be a government hanging by a thread for god's sake, that's going to be a government upon which the voter is demanding that they cooperate with a broad range of views for the benefit of Tasmania."
The anti-fish farm campaigner and former ABC foreign correspondent, who secured almost 22 per cent of the primary vote in Franklin at the recent federal election, said he'd support a no-confidence motion in cases of malfeasance, criminality, or "some outrageous stance by whatever minority party happens to be holding the reins".
"But it'd have to be pretty extreme to do that … a democracy isn't supposed to work where the winner takes all.
Mr George said he would not have supported the no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff, saying the motion brought by Labor "was not so extreme that it was worthwhile Labor trying to bring down the government".
Independent Braddon candidate Craig Garland, who was elected last year, also voted for the no-confidence motion.
He did not sign a confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals in the last parliament, but said he was more inclined to sign a deal with a new government in the next term, if he was elected.
"I understand the significance of a written agreement, so if we can come to some sort of agreement, I have no worries doing a written agreement with whoever was going to form government," he said.
Mr Garland said the no-confidence motion should not have brought about an early election, arguing Mr Rockliff should have stepped down as Liberal leader, and Labor should have tried to govern in minority.
"I approached the Labor Party when the Liberals said they weren't going to change leader and Labor were in the mix," he said.
"I said, 'look you can work with the Greens and get the support of three crossbenchers … we can sit down at the table, forget our own personal asks, let's sit down and work on the things we can do for the first 12 months like integrity and other things'.
"I suggested that was the way to go, but they said, 'no we're not going to do that, we won't work with the Greens'."
Franklin Independent candidate David O'Byrne voted against the no-confidence motion, warning it would lead to an early election.
Mr O'Byrne, a former Labor minister who briefly held the party's leadership, signed a supply and confidence deal with Mr Rockliff, and said it was his intention to sign another deal with a new government, led by either major party.
"You need to provide certainty and clarity, not only to the potential premier but to the Governor and you need to be transparent to the people of Tasmania on what basis you provide your confidence and supply and at what stage that will be withdrawn," he said.
Mr O'Byrne said the major parties and the crossbench all needed to adjust their approach to avoid a string of constant elections.
"Independent members need to work constructively; if you make it too hard for governments to agree with the things you feel strongly about, you're always going to upset yourself, and every issue cannot be the test of the relationship," he said.
"We can't have constant elections, people will not sustain that.
"It doesn't mean you trade away your values or what you feel strongly about, but you just need to be realistic, pragmatic, be mature about it and try to make parliament function as opposed to try and make the parliament fall apart."
The National Party has also vowed to negotiate an agreement with either major party to form government.
Lyons Nationals candidate John Tucker, a former Liberal-turned independent MP who lost his seat at last year's election, said his party would not form a coalition agreement with the Liberal Party, like it does at a federal level, and is open to working with both major parties.
"We will negotiate with whichever party has the most numbers and looks like forming government if we're in the fortunate position to get a number of people elected and we can form a minority government," he said.
"We will decide, depending on how many seats we do get, who has the most seats and their policy positions and where we can get the most benefit for rural and regional Tasmanians with our negotiations."
But Mr Tucker said the party would not govern with any party that did a deal with the Greens.
"We will not go into government with the Greens and we're making that very, very clear, we're ruling that out right from the word go," he said.
Political analyst Robert Hortle, the deputy director of the University of Tasmania's Tasmanian Policy Exchange, said a minority government could function effectively without supply and confidence deals.
"A party can still govern in minority without any formal agreements around confidence and supply, it just makes it a fair bit trickier for them because they have to negotiate the passage of every bill and the passage of the budget as well obviously, and also then negotiate around any no-confidence motions that might come up," Dr Hortle said.
"It really depends on the attitudes that MPs take into the parliament, it doesn't have to be an unstable arrangement if MPs are able to approach those negotiations in the spirit of collaboration and compromise and focusing on what's best for Tasmania.
"But if the approach is more sort of the polarised adversarial one that we've seen in the past then the absence of those deals can make it trickier because everything is up for negotiation at every stage."
Dr Hortle said a new government could simply test whether it had the support of a majority of parliamentarians through a vote of confidence in the House of Assembly, without having formal deals secured.
The National Party has failed to resonate with Tasmanians previously, but is hopeful it can become the state's fourth political force, after the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) announced it would no longer contest Tasmanian elections.
The Nationals are running nine candidates across Braddon, Bass and Lyons, including former JLN MPs Andrew Jenner and Miriam Beswick.
Mr Tucker said he hoped the party's pro-industry views, and stance against the contentious Macquarie Point stadium, would help the party pick up at least a seat at Saturday's election.
"If we can get one person elected into the state parliament, we've achieved what we've set out to do," he said.
Craig Garland was the last person elected in Braddon at last year's election after winning five per cent of the primary vote.
He said it was "a rude shock" to find out he'd got in after multiple unsuccessful tilts at state and federal parliament.
"I was actually sitting in the shed slinging a net … so I was in here, no phone reception, about 5:30 I walked out the door and my phone just pinged for god knows how long, there were lots and lots of messages and a lot from political representatives and I thought, 'oh no, I've got in'." he said.
Mr Garland said he was hopeful he'd be returned, but was taking nothing for granted.
All up, there are 161 candidates contesting Saturday's election, with 91 of them potential crossbenchers.
The Greens are running seven candidates in each of the five seats, meaning there are 56 candidates running as independents or for the Nationals and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.
The list contains a mix of current and former MPs seeking to return to state parliament, such as Mr Tucker and former Liberal attorney-general Elise Archer, who is running in Clark.
There is also a large number of people seeking to enter state parliament for the first time, including Mr George.
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