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ABC News
4 days ago
- Politics
- ABC News
As Tasmania waits to find out who will form the next state government, here are the priorities of the new parliament's independents
Tasmania has elected another large crossbench that once again might equal or outnumber Labor Party members. Regardless of which major party forms government, they will need support from some or most of these politicians. The Liberal Party has the easier job when it comes to making up the numbers, but Labor has more in common with them. With negotiations underway, most of the independents are keeping tight-lipped on what they might be seeking, so what do we know about their priorities? Kristie Johnston was first elected as an independent in the 2021 election. This time around, she's had a massive swing towards her. Ms Johnston has been a fierce anti-stadium critic and has regularly raised concerns about the impact of pokies on her constituents. She even introduced a bill to the last parliament that would've forced gambling companies to repay money that had been stolen to put through poker machines. She's also used her time in parliament to raise awareness about the greyhound racing industry, and push for greater transparency and accountability around a range of issues including the budget and the stadium. Ms Johnston said the state has some very big decisions in front of it, and she wants to understand what the leaders are offering, particularly when it comes to budget repair. "What I want to see is someone after the election, after listening to what the people have said, is to come up with a clear plan," she said. "Treasury in their own PEFO report have indicated that we need to look at a number of factors to address the budget crisis. "The expenditure side, but also the revenue side, and they simply said looking at economic growth is not going to be enough to fix the issue. Speaking on election night, Ms Johnston said she wanted the major parties to do a better job at listening to and collaborating with the crossbench. "We need to see a respectful mature parliament that's respectful of everyone's voices." She has confirmed she would not want a ministry in a power-sharing government. Peter George is best known as an anti-salmon campaigner, having been the spokesperson for Neighbours of Fishfarming for years. While he leant into his anti-salmon reputation during the campaign, it certainly wasn't the only thing he spoke about. He was vocal in his opposition to the proposed Macquarie Point AFL stadium, and rolled out a variety of policies addressing concerns about health, housing and education. Like most of the independents and The Greens, Mr George wants to see a strengthened Integrity Commission with public hearings. He also wants to end native forest logging, crack down on short-stay accommodation, and address the state's soaring debt. "We have 5,000 people in this very small state … waiting to get decent roofs over their heads, we have a health system that's sort of tottering and teetering under the weight of demand, and we have an education system that's turning out functional illiteracy of somewhere close to 50 per cent. "Those are important things that we need to deal with. "I want to hear about that, and I want to see a parliament of 35 people roll up their sleeves and do some serious work across political lines." Mr George said he wants to hear what the parties' plans are for "rebuilding Tasmania's future" but so far his dealings with them have not won him over. "One area of concern is that Labor and Liberal seem to have drawn lines in the sand saying we won't talk about this, we're going to insist on that," he posted on a video on Facebook. "Well, that's not how minority government works, that's certainly not how collaboration works, so slight warning there, but we'll deal with this down the track." North West coaster Craig Garland received a massive jump in his primary vote this election. The fisherman was perhaps best known for his views on salmon farming before he was elected to parliament in 2024 — and he has certainly peppered the government with a lot of questions about the industry. But he has also spoken out on integrity and was so concerned about the budget, he was prepared to vote against it. This time around, Mr Garland wants a seat at the table. He wants to be included in budget repair and the development of policy. Speaking on election night, Mr Garland said "the focus has to flip". "The domestic violence in the North West Coast. We have four beds to deal with women fleeing domestic violence. One hundred and fifty women turned away, 147 children, and we're talking about building the biggest stadium." Mr Garland has spoken to both leaders but has yet to discuss any sort of policies or requests. "There's a lot of talk, and then in the same breath I hear, 'We're not moving on salmon, we're not moving on native forest logging,'" he said. Mr Garland is opposed to Hobart's waterfront stadium, which likely helped his vote in the seat of Braddon, and he is no fan of the proposed undersea electricity and data interconnector between Tasmania and Victoria, known as Marinus Link. A Labor Party veteran turned independent, David O'Byrne managed to make it work during the last parliament with Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff's minority government. He was one of the few crossbenchers who did not support the no-confidence motion in the premier. Speaking after the election about his dealings with the leaders, Mr O'Byrne said he is "not a transactional politician". He does not have "a shopping list of issues" and is instead focused on who could offer the most functional parliament. "My view is we need to get on with governing, we need to find someone who can not only get the numbers on the floor of parliament for the first vote, but can sustain those numbers for a long period of time," he said. In terms of his core issues, they are unsurprisingly Labor core issues — health, housing and the cost of living. In the last parliament, he spent a lot of time questioning the government about the ongoing staffing and reliability issues facing Metro Tasmania, various women's healthcare issues, and TasNetworks' wage negotiations. His bill to amend the Family Violence Act to include the abuse of animals passed parliament last year. He also tabled a bill to introduce Industrial Manslaughter laws, but it was superseded by Labor. Mr O'Byrne is the only crossbencher who supports the stadium. The Greens are the party neither the Liberals, nor Labor, wants to deal with — but having won five seats, they may not be easily ignored. Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff has made it clear that in a balance of power situation, she would do all she could to stop the stadium from being built. "We've been really strong. We're going to fight and do everything we can to pile on the pressure to stop this stadium. "We know that's what's needed. The budget's in a desperate situation. We will not support cuts to essential services." Other things on the Greens' agenda include a strengthened Integrity Commission, something Labor has voiced support for in the past, and they want to see a Treaty with Tasmania's First Nations, another policy Labor is on board with. They are also likely to try and seek some improvement for renters while clamping down on short stay accommodation. The party also wants to keep pushing the major parties to find new revenue for the budget. They would like to see salmon farming companies pay some royalties for the use of Tasmania's waterways, and increased mining royalties to bring Tasmania into line with other jurisdictions. The Greens will not hold the balance of power if the Liberals form a minority government as there will be at least four other crossbenchers they could rely on to get votes through. Labor will likely have to deal with the Greens, if it wants to govern with just 10 of its own MPs, but it will need some form of confidence and supply guarantee from the minor party. That does not mean there will necessarily be any trade on policy or concessions from Labor, but the two parties did combine forces several times in the last parliament to pass their own legislation, including introducing Industrial Manslaughter laws and lowering the political disclosure threshold to $1,000. As counting continues in the state election, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Carlo Di Falco does not even know if he has been elected in the seat of Lyons, but that hasn't stopped him from getting calls from the two major party leaders. He describes himself as a "former blue collar worker" and "not much of a public speaker". Mr DI Falco said that, like the name suggests, he will be fighting for the rights of rural Tasmanians. "The phone coverage of a lot of the Tasmanians that are missing out. Even where I live in Forcett, not that far from Sorell, I've got really patchy coverage where I am," he said. "We need to improve that." Mr Di Falco said there were also a lot of issues with "social cohesion". "That's why I'm pushing for more funding for Neighbourhood Houses because sometimes when people's lives go to custard, probably the best place to go is somewhere where you can talk to somebody in the community." Mr Di Falco is pro development but he is not too keen on the proposed AFL stadium on Hobart's waterfront. "I'd be taking that money and increasing Hydro storage. If you want to increase wealth, that comes off the back of cheap, reliable energy."
ABC News
22-07-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Liberals present draft 'stability agreement' to Tasmanian crossbenchers as Labor wins 10th seat in Franklin
Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff has presented a draft "stability agreement" to newly elected independent crossbenchers as he seeks support for a minority Liberal government following Saturday's election. As counting continues, the Liberals have locked in at least 14 seats in the new parliament, the most of any party — but still short of the 18 needed for a majority. Labor has won at least 10 seats, after gaining the final spot in the electorate of Franklin, according to ABC chief elections and data analyst Casey Briggs. At least four independents have also been elected — previous MPs David O'Byrne, Kristie Johnston, and Craig Garland, as well as newcomer Peter George. Carlo Di Falco from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party also has a chance to gain a seat in Lyons. Mr Rockliff said he is seeking feedback from each on a draft stability agreement. "And I look forward to meeting with key independents over the course of the next number of days to ensure that I can get their feedback on how what I have presented as a draft can be further improved upon as well." Saturday's snap poll took place after Labor last month moved a successful no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff, including in his ability to improve the state's soaring debt level. Mr Rockliff said his draft stability agreement would allow the co-development of parliamentary protocols and would feature a "multi-partisan budget panel". "So we can have good discussions prior to the budget and have everyone's input on that," he said. The agreement would also feature "ministerial consultation protocols" and a "crossbench liaison office". The ABC has contacted the elected crossbenchers for their response to Mr Rockliff's approach. Mr Garland, who has been re-elected in the seat of Braddon, said he was pleased to receive the draft agreement and was actively considering it. Earlier on Wednesday, he told ABC Radio Hobart the major parties needed to be open to collaboration if they wanted his support. "Well, there's a lot of talk, and then in the same breath, I hear [them say] 'We're not moving on salmon. We're not moving on native forest logging'. He said he wanted to be included in "budget repair" and the "development of policy". "Those two things, I think, are absolutely crucial with the talk of compromise and working together. "We have to be at the table to have input into that, I think." Other crossbenchers have not yet responded to the ABC. But on Monday, Mr George, who will represent Franklin, posted a video on Facebook in which he suggested the major parties needed to be more flexible in their approach with crossbenchers. "One area of concern is that Labor and Liberal seem to have drawn lines in the sand, saying we won't talk about this, we are going to insist on that," Mr George said. "Well, that's not how minority government works, that' certainly not how collaboration works. "So, a slight warning there, but we will deal with this down the track." A spokesperson said Labor was "working on a similar document but won't be releasing anything publicly before consulting with the cross bench and receiving their feedback". On election night, the party's leader, Dean Winter, indicated he would try to form a minority government if Mr Rockliff was unable to garner enough support from the crossbench.
The Advertiser
19-07-2025
- Politics
- The Advertiser
Liberals hold ground in Tassie as Labor vote tanks
Early voting in Tasmania's election points to the Liberals being in the box seat to rule, with the incumbent government's vote rising and Labor's collapsing. Saturday's vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's second in 16 months. All opinion polls have pointed to another hung parliament, with neither of the major parties gaining enough support to reach the 18-seat mark required for majority. Early tallies at 8pm (AEDT) with 14 per cent of the vote counted showed a 2.4 per cent swing toward the Liberals and a 3.9 per cent swing away from Labor. The ABC had called 12 seats for Labor, five for Labor and three for the Greens. Independent Kristie Johnston had also retained her seat. The Liberals held 14 seats coming into the poll, with Labor on 10, the Greens five and the remaining six either independents or other parties. Election analyst Casey Briggs said it was unclear if the Liberals may end the election with more than 14 seats. "The Liberal Party is looking well-placed to retain virtually all of their seats," Briggs said. "They may even gain - as we have been talking about - a fourth in Braddon while Labor is struggling to keep its 10." Labor has flagged trying to govern in minority even if they finish with fewer seats than the Liberals. Mr Rockliff and Labor leader Dean Winter have both ruled out doing a formal deal with the Greens to govern. However, Mr Winter has kept the door ajar for no-strings-attached informal supply and confidence arrangement with the Greens. "In terms of who wins the most seats, we're in a very different political environment than we have been a number of elections ago," Labor upper house MP Sarah Lovell told the ABC. "I don't know that it's fair to say that the party with the most seats automatically gets to claim victory." Liberal incumbent MP Eric Abetz said the party with more seats should get first crack at governing. "I have every expectation that at the end of tonight the Liberal Party will be holding more seats than the Labor Party," he said. The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have been in minority since 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench. Incumbent independents Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who are left-leaning and voted for the no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff, are likely to be returned. It could be weeks for the final count to be completed, with the last postal votes not expected to arrive until the end of July Election eve polling by YouGov had the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30) neck-and-neck, followed by backing for independents (20) and the Greens (16). There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. The no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff, put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbenchers, was critical of the budget and a bungled ferry delivery. Another key issue has been plans for a $945 million Hobart stadium, which is backed by the Liberals and Labor but opposed by the Greens and several crossbenchers. Early voting in Tasmania's election points to the Liberals being in the box seat to rule, with the incumbent government's vote rising and Labor's collapsing. Saturday's vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's second in 16 months. All opinion polls have pointed to another hung parliament, with neither of the major parties gaining enough support to reach the 18-seat mark required for majority. Early tallies at 8pm (AEDT) with 14 per cent of the vote counted showed a 2.4 per cent swing toward the Liberals and a 3.9 per cent swing away from Labor. The ABC had called 12 seats for Labor, five for Labor and three for the Greens. Independent Kristie Johnston had also retained her seat. The Liberals held 14 seats coming into the poll, with Labor on 10, the Greens five and the remaining six either independents or other parties. Election analyst Casey Briggs said it was unclear if the Liberals may end the election with more than 14 seats. "The Liberal Party is looking well-placed to retain virtually all of their seats," Briggs said. "They may even gain - as we have been talking about - a fourth in Braddon while Labor is struggling to keep its 10." Labor has flagged trying to govern in minority even if they finish with fewer seats than the Liberals. Mr Rockliff and Labor leader Dean Winter have both ruled out doing a formal deal with the Greens to govern. However, Mr Winter has kept the door ajar for no-strings-attached informal supply and confidence arrangement with the Greens. "In terms of who wins the most seats, we're in a very different political environment than we have been a number of elections ago," Labor upper house MP Sarah Lovell told the ABC. "I don't know that it's fair to say that the party with the most seats automatically gets to claim victory." Liberal incumbent MP Eric Abetz said the party with more seats should get first crack at governing. "I have every expectation that at the end of tonight the Liberal Party will be holding more seats than the Labor Party," he said. The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have been in minority since 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench. Incumbent independents Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who are left-leaning and voted for the no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff, are likely to be returned. It could be weeks for the final count to be completed, with the last postal votes not expected to arrive until the end of July Election eve polling by YouGov had the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30) neck-and-neck, followed by backing for independents (20) and the Greens (16). There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. The no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff, put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbenchers, was critical of the budget and a bungled ferry delivery. Another key issue has been plans for a $945 million Hobart stadium, which is backed by the Liberals and Labor but opposed by the Greens and several crossbenchers. Early voting in Tasmania's election points to the Liberals being in the box seat to rule, with the incumbent government's vote rising and Labor's collapsing. Saturday's vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's second in 16 months. All opinion polls have pointed to another hung parliament, with neither of the major parties gaining enough support to reach the 18-seat mark required for majority. Early tallies at 8pm (AEDT) with 14 per cent of the vote counted showed a 2.4 per cent swing toward the Liberals and a 3.9 per cent swing away from Labor. The ABC had called 12 seats for Labor, five for Labor and three for the Greens. Independent Kristie Johnston had also retained her seat. The Liberals held 14 seats coming into the poll, with Labor on 10, the Greens five and the remaining six either independents or other parties. Election analyst Casey Briggs said it was unclear if the Liberals may end the election with more than 14 seats. "The Liberal Party is looking well-placed to retain virtually all of their seats," Briggs said. "They may even gain - as we have been talking about - a fourth in Braddon while Labor is struggling to keep its 10." Labor has flagged trying to govern in minority even if they finish with fewer seats than the Liberals. Mr Rockliff and Labor leader Dean Winter have both ruled out doing a formal deal with the Greens to govern. However, Mr Winter has kept the door ajar for no-strings-attached informal supply and confidence arrangement with the Greens. "In terms of who wins the most seats, we're in a very different political environment than we have been a number of elections ago," Labor upper house MP Sarah Lovell told the ABC. "I don't know that it's fair to say that the party with the most seats automatically gets to claim victory." Liberal incumbent MP Eric Abetz said the party with more seats should get first crack at governing. "I have every expectation that at the end of tonight the Liberal Party will be holding more seats than the Labor Party," he said. The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have been in minority since 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench. Incumbent independents Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who are left-leaning and voted for the no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff, are likely to be returned. It could be weeks for the final count to be completed, with the last postal votes not expected to arrive until the end of July Election eve polling by YouGov had the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30) neck-and-neck, followed by backing for independents (20) and the Greens (16). There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. The no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff, put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbenchers, was critical of the budget and a bungled ferry delivery. Another key issue has been plans for a $945 million Hobart stadium, which is backed by the Liberals and Labor but opposed by the Greens and several crossbenchers. Early voting in Tasmania's election points to the Liberals being in the box seat to rule, with the incumbent government's vote rising and Labor's collapsing. Saturday's vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's second in 16 months. All opinion polls have pointed to another hung parliament, with neither of the major parties gaining enough support to reach the 18-seat mark required for majority. Early tallies at 8pm (AEDT) with 14 per cent of the vote counted showed a 2.4 per cent swing toward the Liberals and a 3.9 per cent swing away from Labor. The ABC had called 12 seats for Labor, five for Labor and three for the Greens. Independent Kristie Johnston had also retained her seat. The Liberals held 14 seats coming into the poll, with Labor on 10, the Greens five and the remaining six either independents or other parties. Election analyst Casey Briggs said it was unclear if the Liberals may end the election with more than 14 seats. "The Liberal Party is looking well-placed to retain virtually all of their seats," Briggs said. "They may even gain - as we have been talking about - a fourth in Braddon while Labor is struggling to keep its 10." Labor has flagged trying to govern in minority even if they finish with fewer seats than the Liberals. Mr Rockliff and Labor leader Dean Winter have both ruled out doing a formal deal with the Greens to govern. However, Mr Winter has kept the door ajar for no-strings-attached informal supply and confidence arrangement with the Greens. "In terms of who wins the most seats, we're in a very different political environment than we have been a number of elections ago," Labor upper house MP Sarah Lovell told the ABC. "I don't know that it's fair to say that the party with the most seats automatically gets to claim victory." Liberal incumbent MP Eric Abetz said the party with more seats should get first crack at governing. "I have every expectation that at the end of tonight the Liberal Party will be holding more seats than the Labor Party," he said. The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have been in minority since 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench. Incumbent independents Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who are left-leaning and voted for the no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff, are likely to be returned. It could be weeks for the final count to be completed, with the last postal votes not expected to arrive until the end of July Election eve polling by YouGov had the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30) neck-and-neck, followed by backing for independents (20) and the Greens (16). There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028. The no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff, put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbenchers, was critical of the budget and a bungled ferry delivery. Another key issue has been plans for a $945 million Hobart stadium, which is backed by the Liberals and Labor but opposed by the Greens and several crossbenchers.
ABC News
17-07-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Crossbench MPs expected to again hold power after the Tasmanian state election — how do they plan to use it?
Prominent independent candidates Kristie Johnston and Peter George say they won't sign confidence and supply deals with a new government if Tasmanians elect another hung parliament. But they insist the lack of a formal agreement won't result in political instability. Premier Jeremy Rockliff's government collapsed after just 15 months in June, after a majority of parliamentarians supported a no-confidence motion in him. An early election was called after the Liberals refused to change leader, and Labor declined to form a minority government with the Greens. With all polling released during the campaign indicating a hung parliament is the most likely result, both Labor and the Liberals have said they'll attempt to form a minority government with "sensible" independents if they fall short of winning the 18 seats required to form majority. Clark candidate Ms Johnston and Franklin candidate Mr George have both said they won't sign formal confidence and supply agreements — like those the Liberals signed with the Jacqui Lambie Network and independent David O'Byrne — with a new government. Ms Johnston — who was elected in 2021 and voted for the no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff — last year committed to supporting the previous government's budgets "on merit", and resolved to assess each no-confidence motion on their merits, eventually supporting all but one. She said confidence and supply deals were "a thing of the past". "And that's a matter of what's in front of me on the day." Mr George also said he didn't intend to sign a confidence and supply agreement with any party. "I will judge each legislation, each policy, on its merits and that does not mean we'll have an unstable government," he said. "There are so many good governments around the world which represent many different points of view, that's what democracy is all about. "That's not going to be a government hanging by a thread for god's sake, that's going to be a government upon which the voter is demanding that they cooperate with a broad range of views for the benefit of Tasmania." The anti-fish farm campaigner and former ABC foreign correspondent, who secured almost 22 per cent of the primary vote in Franklin at the recent federal election, said he'd support a no-confidence motion in cases of malfeasance, criminality, or "some outrageous stance by whatever minority party happens to be holding the reins". "But it'd have to be pretty extreme to do that … a democracy isn't supposed to work where the winner takes all. Mr George said he would not have supported the no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff, saying the motion brought by Labor "was not so extreme that it was worthwhile Labor trying to bring down the government". Independent Braddon candidate Craig Garland, who was elected last year, also voted for the no-confidence motion. He did not sign a confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals in the last parliament, but said he was more inclined to sign a deal with a new government in the next term, if he was elected. "I understand the significance of a written agreement, so if we can come to some sort of agreement, I have no worries doing a written agreement with whoever was going to form government," he said. Mr Garland said the no-confidence motion should not have brought about an early election, arguing Mr Rockliff should have stepped down as Liberal leader, and Labor should have tried to govern in minority. "I approached the Labor Party when the Liberals said they weren't going to change leader and Labor were in the mix," he said. "I said, 'look you can work with the Greens and get the support of three crossbenchers … we can sit down at the table, forget our own personal asks, let's sit down and work on the things we can do for the first 12 months like integrity and other things'. "I suggested that was the way to go, but they said, 'no we're not going to do that, we won't work with the Greens'." Franklin Independent candidate David O'Byrne voted against the no-confidence motion, warning it would lead to an early election. Mr O'Byrne, a former Labor minister who briefly held the party's leadership, signed a supply and confidence deal with Mr Rockliff, and said it was his intention to sign another deal with a new government, led by either major party. "You need to provide certainty and clarity, not only to the potential premier but to the Governor and you need to be transparent to the people of Tasmania on what basis you provide your confidence and supply and at what stage that will be withdrawn," he said. Mr O'Byrne said the major parties and the crossbench all needed to adjust their approach to avoid a string of constant elections. "Independent members need to work constructively; if you make it too hard for governments to agree with the things you feel strongly about, you're always going to upset yourself, and every issue cannot be the test of the relationship," he said. "We can't have constant elections, people will not sustain that. "It doesn't mean you trade away your values or what you feel strongly about, but you just need to be realistic, pragmatic, be mature about it and try to make parliament function as opposed to try and make the parliament fall apart." The National Party has also vowed to negotiate an agreement with either major party to form government. Lyons Nationals candidate John Tucker, a former Liberal-turned independent MP who lost his seat at last year's election, said his party would not form a coalition agreement with the Liberal Party, like it does at a federal level, and is open to working with both major parties. "We will negotiate with whichever party has the most numbers and looks like forming government if we're in the fortunate position to get a number of people elected and we can form a minority government," he said. "We will decide, depending on how many seats we do get, who has the most seats and their policy positions and where we can get the most benefit for rural and regional Tasmanians with our negotiations." But Mr Tucker said the party would not govern with any party that did a deal with the Greens. "We will not go into government with the Greens and we're making that very, very clear, we're ruling that out right from the word go," he said. Political analyst Robert Hortle, the deputy director of the University of Tasmania's Tasmanian Policy Exchange, said a minority government could function effectively without supply and confidence deals. "A party can still govern in minority without any formal agreements around confidence and supply, it just makes it a fair bit trickier for them because they have to negotiate the passage of every bill and the passage of the budget as well obviously, and also then negotiate around any no-confidence motions that might come up," Dr Hortle said. "It really depends on the attitudes that MPs take into the parliament, it doesn't have to be an unstable arrangement if MPs are able to approach those negotiations in the spirit of collaboration and compromise and focusing on what's best for Tasmania. "But if the approach is more sort of the polarised adversarial one that we've seen in the past then the absence of those deals can make it trickier because everything is up for negotiation at every stage." Dr Hortle said a new government could simply test whether it had the support of a majority of parliamentarians through a vote of confidence in the House of Assembly, without having formal deals secured. The National Party has failed to resonate with Tasmanians previously, but is hopeful it can become the state's fourth political force, after the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) announced it would no longer contest Tasmanian elections. The Nationals are running nine candidates across Braddon, Bass and Lyons, including former JLN MPs Andrew Jenner and Miriam Beswick. Mr Tucker said he hoped the party's pro-industry views, and stance against the contentious Macquarie Point stadium, would help the party pick up at least a seat at Saturday's election. "If we can get one person elected into the state parliament, we've achieved what we've set out to do," he said. Craig Garland was the last person elected in Braddon at last year's election after winning five per cent of the primary vote. He said it was "a rude shock" to find out he'd got in after multiple unsuccessful tilts at state and federal parliament. "I was actually sitting in the shed slinging a net … so I was in here, no phone reception, about 5:30 I walked out the door and my phone just pinged for god knows how long, there were lots and lots of messages and a lot from political representatives and I thought, 'oh no, I've got in'." he said. Mr Garland said he was hopeful he'd be returned, but was taking nothing for granted. All up, there are 161 candidates contesting Saturday's election, with 91 of them potential crossbenchers. The Greens are running seven candidates in each of the five seats, meaning there are 56 candidates running as independents or for the Nationals and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. The list contains a mix of current and former MPs seeking to return to state parliament, such as Mr Tucker and former Liberal attorney-general Elise Archer, who is running in Clark. There is also a large number of people seeking to enter state parliament for the first time, including Mr George.
