Ranking the NFL's 25 best rookie QB seasons of the past 25 years

New York Times

9 hours ago

Playing quarterback in the National Football League is not just one of the hardest jobs in sports — it's one of the hardest anywhere. And playing quarterback as a rookie is even harder.
The pressure, the expectations, the degree of difficulty and the absence of any margin for error can confound even the most seasoned veterans. Plenty of rookie quarterbacks — some of the best we've ever seen — weren't ready to start a game during their first year, let alone to lead a team through an entire season. And though plenty have also come out firing, it's important to note that how a quarterback performs during his first season in the NFL is not always an exact harbinger of what's to come.
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With all that in mind, as we prepare for the NFL season, let's look back at the 25 best rookie quarterback performances of the past 25 years:
Stats: 331-of-480 passing (69.0 percent) for 3,568 yards, 25 TDs, nine INTs; 891 yards rushing, six TDs
Team result: 12-5 (second place, NFC East), lost NFC title game
A few first-year quarterbacks have thrown for more yards and touchdowns or had better EPA numbers. But no one on this list was able to enter a rocky situation and completely change the math overnight the way Daniels did last season in Washington — he nearly became the first rookie QB to start a Super Bowl.
One of the league's brightest young stars, Daniels set NFL rookie QB records for rushing yards, fourth-quarter/overtime TDs and overall completion percentage.
Stats: 319-of-499 passing (63.9 percent) for 4,108 yards, 23 TDs, five INTs; 167 yards rushing, three TDs
Team result: 10-7 (first place, AFC South), lost in divisional round
Purely from a big-money passing standpoint, Stroud would be No. 1 on this list. His 2023 season was a revelation and immediately silenced draft scouts who questioned whether Stroud was smart enough to handle an NFL offense. At 22 years, three months and 10 days, he became the youngest NFL starting QB to win a playoff game when Houston knocked off Cleveland in the wild-card round.
Stroud also set rookie records for passing yards (470) and TDs (5) in a game, as well as most attempts without a pick to start a career (191) and number of games with at least 350 passing yards (3).
Stats: 311-of-459 passing (67.8 percent) for 3,667 yards, 23 TDs, four INTs; 282 yards rushing, six rush TDs
Team result: 13-3 (first place, NFC East), lost in divisional round
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The 2016 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Prescott notched a sizzling rookie-record 104.9 QB rating. And though it would take him eight years to top that number, the season was an indicator of Prescott's efficiency (66.8 percent for his career) — his rookie completion percentage (67.8) was the NFL record until Daniels broke it. One could even argue the 2016 season was the most accurate of Prescott's career, as his completion rate above expected was a whopping 7.3, easily a career best.
Now 32, Prescott hasn't quite lived up to the crazy bar he set as a rookie — he's never topped the .23 EPA/dropback number he notched that year. He has, however, spent the bulk of his run near the top of the league's second QB tier.
Stats: 258-of-393 passing (65.6 percent) for 3,200 yards, 20 TDs, five INTs; 815 yards rushing, seven TDs
Team result: 10-6 (first place NFC East), lost in wild-card round
It's possible this is too low, as RGIII (the NFL's first starting QB born in the 1990s) tore through the league as a dynamic, big-play, dual-threat passer and finished with more than 4,000 total yards. His EPA/dropback of .22 is second only to Prescott's (.23) among rookies this century.
Griffin required major knee surgery following the 2012 season and was never the same. He ultimately lost his starting job to Kirk Cousins by 2015.
Stats: 196-of-295 passing (66.4 percent) for 2,621 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs; 144 yards rushing, one TD
Team result: 15-1 (first place, AFC North), lost AFC title game
Context is required to understand how big a deal Roethlisberger's rookie year was at the time. He began the year as Pittsburgh's No. 3 but found himself on the field in Week 2 after an injury to starter Tommy Maddox. Roethlisberger would go on to start — and win — his next 13 games, helping Pittsburgh to the league's best record.
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In his second season, he became the youngest Super Bowl-winning QB, posting a scorching .21 EPA/dropback and proving to be the missing piece Pittsburgh needed for an elite run.
Stats: 252-of-393 passing (64.1 percent) for 3,118 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs; 489 yards rushing, four TDs
Team result: 11-5 (second place, NFC West), lost in divisional round
I've long considered Russell Wilson the originator of the transfer portal, as his graduate move to — and subsequent performance at — Wisconsin in 2011 popularized the movement. He showed an ability to immediately fit within a talented roster as a Badger, then was able to do it again as a rookie in Seattle.
Wilson and Bobby Wagner were exactly what Seattle needed. The young QB pushed the offense into uncharted waters, posting a .19 EPA/dropback number with a rate of 9.9 air yards per attempt.
Stats: 339-of-627 passing (54.1 percent) for 4,374 yards, 23 TDs, 18 INTs; 255 yards rushing, five TDs
Team result: 11-5 (second place, AFC South), lost in wild-card round
One of the most fearless NFL quarterbacks we've ever seen, Luck averaged better than 10 air yards per attempt as a rookie while showing zero hesitation into tight windows or over the middle of the field. His interception total was high, but his work bouncing back after mistakes was very impressive from a young player.
Luck was sacked a career-high 41 times as a rookie (fourth highest in the NFL that year) and kept getting up, willing a group that went 2-14 in 2011 to 11 wins one year later.
Stats: 396-of-595 passing (67.6 percent) for 4,336 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs; 234 yards rushing, five TDs
Team result: 7-9 (third place, AFC West)
The NFL record-holder for most passing yards through the first two, three, four and five seasons of a career, Herbert didn't even open his rookie year as the Chargers' starter — he took over in Week 2 for an injured Tyrod Taylor before exploding for one of the most productive opening seasons ever.
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Herbert was the ninth-best NFL starter that year against two-high coverage and ranked among the top 10 in completion percentage above expected (102.4), making it one of the most accurate years of his career to date.
Stats: 310-of-517 passing (60.0 percent) for 4,051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 TDs; 706 yards rushing, 14 TDs
Team result: 6-10 (third place, NFC South)
Newton set the NFL record for total touchdowns by a rookie QB (35) in 2011 (Herbert broke it in 2020 with 36). The former No. 1 pick still holds the league record for total yards by a rookie quarterback (4,784, including a 27-yard reception) and was the league's first 4,000-yard rookie passer.
In his first NFL game, Newton threw for 422 yards and had three total touchdowns. He never won a title, but when he was physically right, he was one of the most unique quarterbacks we've ever seen and helped set the table for future dual-threat players.
Stats: 376-of-567 passing (66.3 percent) for 3,775 yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs; 430 yards rushing, four TDs
Team result: 10-7 (third place, AFC West), lost in wild-card round
A rookie quarterback surviving the experience that is Sean Payton's complex offense is enough to earn a spot somewhere on this list. But Nix did more than survive. There are limitations to Nix's game, but he rarely tries to work outside his capabilities — nor does Payton ask him to.
Nix was very efficient for a rookie, piling up 12.5 first downs per game, not far behind Daniels' number of 13.2 (which tied with Josh Allen).
Stats: 349-of-542 passing (64.4 percent) for 3,722 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs; 544 yards rushing, four TDs
Team result: 5-10-1 (fourth place, NFC West)
Despite being sacked a league-high 48 times in 2019, the diminutive Murray still hit nearly 65 percent of his throws while maintaining his presence as a dual-threat player. He showed better arm strength as a rookie than some expected, was confident in all areas of the field and emerged as a perfect fit in Kliff Kingsbury's offense (which is a good one for young QBs).
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Stats: 351-of-562 passing (62.5 percent) for 3,541 yards, 20 TDs, six INTs; 489 yards rushing
Team result: 5-12 (fourth place, NFC North)
Daniels' historic season certainly stole some thunder from Williams, the No. 1 pick in 2024. However, it's not fair to suggest Williams had a 'bad' or 'disappointing' season.
Williams had a stretch of 354 throws without a pick last year, an NFL rookie record. And in similar fashion to Murray, he did this while being sacked more times (68) than anyone in the NFL — even if plenty of those were his own fault.
Stats: 265-of-434 passing (61.1 percent) for 3,440 yards, 16 TDs, 11 INTs; 104 yards rushing, one TD
Team result: 11-5 (second place, NFC South), lost in wild-card round
The Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2008, Ryan became the NFC's first rookie quarterback to start every game and take a team into the playoffs. Ryan's performance was critical in helping revive an Atlanta franchise that had lost Michael Vick and dealt with Bobby Petrino just one year prior.
Stats: 126-of-204 passing (61.7 percent) for 1,699 yards, 19 TDs, eight INTs; 269 yards rushing, two TDs
Team result: 4-12 (fourth place, AFC South)
Watson made just six starts in 2017 (Weeks 2-7) before going down with an ACL injury in early November, but he was on pace for a potentially historic run — his numbers stretched over the full season would've given him a shot at 4,000 yards passing and 50 touchdowns.
Stats: 310-of-486 passing (63.8 percent) for 3,725 yards, 27 TDs, 14 INTs; 131 yards rushing
Team result: 7-8-1 (third place, AFC North)
Let the record show that Mayfield's run in Cleveland didn't end because he never made plays. Consistency was certainly an issue, but he also had some great days — such as throwing for more than 500 yards combined with seven touchdowns (and zero interceptions) in two wins over the Bengals or his near 400-yard passing performance in a two-point loss at Baltimore to close the season.
Stats: 114-of-170 passing (67.1 percent) for 1,374 yards, 13 TDs, four INTs; 13 yards rushing, one TD
Team result: 13-4 (first place, NFC West), lost NFC title game
Purdy's rookie year was sort of the opposite of Watson's, in that he started the season's final five games (and attempted 37 passes in relief the game before that stretch), leading the 49ers into the playoffs with an incredibly accurate showing. Purdy was fearless over the middle that season, earning a .47 EPA number on attempts between the numbers.
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Stats: 285-of-470 passing (60.6 percent) for 3,271 yards, 21 TDs, six INTs; 344 yards rushing
Team result: 6-10 (fourth place, AFC South)
It's fair to wonder what might have been for Minshew had the Jaguars not landed the No. 1 pick and the right to draft Trevor Lawrence in 2021. Minshew was very good as a rookie and played well early in 2020, despite the talent around him.
He hasn't earned a full-time role since, but Minshew remains an accurate, confident passer — one who has outperformed his sixth-round draft slot.
Stats: 312-of-535 passing (58.3 percent) for 4,042 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INTs; 213 yards rushing, six TDs
Team result: 6-10 (fourth place, NFC South)
Turnovers have always been a problem for Winston, and his rookie year was no exception. But Winston never let a mistake throttle back his aggression. He became the youngest player in NFL history (21 years, 363 days) to throw for 4,000 yards in a season.
Stats: 352-of-521 passing (67.6 percent) for 3,801 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs; 129 yards rushing
Team result: 10-7 (second place, AFC East), lost in wild-card round
To date, 2021 remains the best year of Mac Jones' career — and by a good amount. However, the Patriots did him zero favors. Jones' rookie year was the last in New England for Josh McDaniels. Matt Patricia was Jones' OC for Year 2 and his play has dwindled ever since.
Stats: 225-of-338 passing (66.6 percent) for 2,276 yards, 15 TDs, 10 INTs; 421 yards rushing, two TDs
Team result: 4-13 (fourth place, AFC East)
Maye got off to a bit of an awkward start, as he began the year as the backup despite looking ready to hold the No. 1 job post-training camp. He finally got the nod in Week 6 and kept his head above water the rest of the way, all while guiding one of the least talented rosters in football.
DRAKE MAYE! RHAMONDRE STEVENSON! @PATRIOTS TIE IT UP! pic.twitter.com/ThCEJxhA0b
— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
Stats: 257-of-428 passing (60.0 percent) for 2,971 yards, 14 TDs, 12 INTs; 180 yards rushing, two TDs
Team result: 11-5 (second place, AFC North), lost AFC title game
One of four quarterbacks on our list to lead his rookie squad to a conference title game, Flacco was the only rookie starter on a talented, veteran roster in Baltimore. He played with enough maturity, however, to support an always-productive Ravens defense in John Harbaugh's debut season.
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Stats: 259-of-402 passing (64.4 percent) for 2,919 yards, 14 TDs, 12 INTs; 209 yards rushing, one TD
Team result: 7-9 (third place, NFC North)
Younger fans of today's game need to know that Bridgewater was on his way to potential stardom before suffering a devastating and career-altering knee injury in 2016.
Early in his rookie campaign, Bridgewater replaced Matt Cassel and played his best football down the stretch before taking the Vikings to the playoffs in his second season (and earning a Pro Bowl nod).
Stats: 230-of-370 passing (62.2 percent) for 2,818 yards, 19 TDs, 10 INTs; 252 yards rushing, two TDs
Team result: 3-13 (fourth place, AFC South)
Mariota threw four touchdown passes in the first half of his first NFL game and eventually tied Mark Rypien for most touchdowns by a rookie through three starts (8). The former No. 2 pick posted a combined 45 touchdowns over his first two seasons before injuries and inconsistency caught up with him.
Stats: 379-of-607 passing (62.4 percent) for 3,782 yards, 16 TDs, 14 INTs; 150 yards rushing, two TDs
Team result: 7-9 (fourth place, NFC East)
Wentz's 379 completions set an NFL rookie record — that number stands now as the second highest of his career. His mark of 3,782 pass yards is also the second best of his career, as Wentz's boom-or-bust debut season paved the way a stellar 13-game run to open 2017.
Wentz suffered a knee injury in Year 2, but the Eagles still captured a Super Bowl title.
Stats: 284-of-459 passing (61.9 percent) for 3,027 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs; 279 yards rushing, two TDs
Team result: 4-12 (third place, NFC East)
Jones' rookie year was the best of his career to date — and it's probably the chief reason Saquon Barkley is no longer in New York. Jones threw nine more TD passes as a rookie than in any season since, and his performance served as catalyst for the eventual extension the Giants would come to regret.
(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Andy Lyons, Tom Pennington, Jonathan Ferrey / Getty Images)
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