Middle East air passenger numbers to soar to 530m in 2043

Trade Arabia

2 days ago

Middle East air passenger numbers will double, reaching 530 million in 2043 with traffic growing at an average annual rate of 3.9% over the 2023 – 2043 period, it was revealed at the IATA AGM.
At a press conference to discuss Middle East performance, it was noted that the year to date demand for Middle East, which compares January to April 2025 with January to April 2024, was up 6% in line with global average.
The YTD cargo performance for Middle East reflects some challenges – it was down 5.3%
MEAN Safety
The global accident rate in 2024 was 1.13 per million sectors, up from 1.09 in 2023. That means just over one accident for every million flights. While still below the 5-year average of 1.25, the slight uptick is a reminder that safety progress is not guaranteed — and must be actively defended.
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) saw a positive trend: the all-accident rate dropped from 1.12 in 2023 to 1.08 in 2024. This improvement, although modest, reflects efforts to strengthen oversight, standardize procedures, and invest in safety culture.
Continued collaboration between regulators, airlines, and ground operations teams is essential to sustain this momentum, it was highlighted at the press conference.
Aviation in Middle East is not developing evenly
Overall, the Middle East is doing well in aviation. But the reality is that the region is not developing evenly, it was noted.
Ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Israel and Lebanon have resulted in prolonged airspace closures and significant disruption to flight operations. These conditions have weakened aviation infrastructure, eroded investor confidence, and limited access to critical markets.
Overflight restrictions, particularly around Iranian and Syrian airspace, have forced airlines to reroute — raising fuel consumption, increasing emissions, and extending flight times.
Conflict zones also hinder intra-regional connectivity, slowing economic integration and impeding the mobility of people and goods—especially in countries that would benefit most from enhanced air access.
Sanctions limit access to aircraft, parts, and finance—isolating some carriers from the global aviation system and hindering safety and growth.
While aviation has shown remarkable resilience amid political uncertainty, its full potential is unlocked in environments that are stable, peaceful, and open to international engagement, it was highlighted.
Economic Disparity
The region contains some of the world's richest and poorest countries, with stark gaps in aviation capacity and investment, the conference noted.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have built world-class hubs and fleets with strong government backing. However, in contrast, lower-income countries like Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria face declining infrastructure, underfunded civil aviation authorities, and outdated fleets. A coordinated regional approach is essential to narrow the gap, it felt.
Regulatory harmonisation is a priority for the Middle East region, the conference stressed, pointing out the following factors:
• No unified air transport market in the Middle East: There is currently no overarching framework allowing airlines to operate seamlessly across the Middle East. A more coordinated approach could enhance connectivity, efficiency, and economic integration.
• Fair and proportionate consumer protection regulations: Smart regulation that follows global best practices and industry standards is essential for aviation to thrive. Ineffective consumer legislation from Europe and the United States should not be imported. Consumer protection regulations must be fair and proportionate.
• Enhancing maintenance and safety oversight: Differences in national regulations for MRO operations mean that certifications obtained in one country may not be recognized in another. This lack of mutual recognition creates barriers for MRO providers seeking to operate across multiple Middle Eastern countries, leading to inefficiencies and increased costs.
• Cost-effective and timely investment in infrastructure through smart regulations: Airport and infrastructure development is guided by diverse economic regulation models. A regionally informed approach could help ensure infrastructure is cost-effective, scalable, and airline-friendly. A regulatory framework that balances ambition with economic sustainability is key. An example is Saudi Arabia's aviation transformation strategy which is driven by growth without overburdening operators.
There are varying degrees of prioritisation of aviation in the Middle East. A unified and collaborative approach will support in bridging the gap between countries and strengthen the region's role in aviation, it said.
According to the conference five priority areas to address are:
1. Evolve towards a more integrated air transport market: Foster greater regional collaboration on air service agreements to improve connectivity, reduce fragmentation, and enable more flexible route development.
2. Fair and proportionate consumer protection regulations: Work towards a consistent baseline that follows ICAO principles, global industry best practices and standards of passenger rights across the region—ensuring travelers experience fair, transparent treatment no matter where they fly.
3. Advancing cost-effective and timely investment in infrastructure through smart regulations: Promote infrastructure development that is cost-effective, scalable, and aligned with long-term traffic growth — ensuring airports and air navigation services remain accessible and affordable.
4. Enhance maintenance and safety oversight: Encourage mutual recognition of maintenance standards, training, and certifications to ensure consistent safety and support airline efficiency across borders.