Magna latest to downgrade global ad spending forecast, expects $979B
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Global advertising revenue for media owners is expected to hit $979 billion in 2025, a 4.9% increase from 2024, according to a report released by Magna, a unit of IPG Mediabrands, on June 16. The forecast marks a spending revision down 1.2 percentage points from its last update in December.
Revenue from traditional advertising sources, such as publishing, TV and radio, is expected to drop 3% to $264 billion in 2025, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty. Digital platform ad sales are projected to total $715 billion, an 8% increase.
Search and retail media ads will reach $357 billion, an 8% increase. Social media ad sales will rise 11% to $242 billion and short-form video content ad sales are expected to rise 7% to $80 billion. Digital platforms allow for easier scalability and accountability, making them a prime investment for periods of lower visibility.
U.S. advertising revenue for media owners is expected to hit a record-high of $398 billion, a 4.6% increase over 2024 and a 6.9% increase when excluding cyclical spending. While ad revenue continues to grow, it is slightly slower than years prior. In 2024, growth was 9.9%. However, the economic forecast has been steadily improving, and the first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 9.1%, when excluding cyclical spending. Despite this growth, investors and consumers remain wary of the economic landscape as tariff concerns persist. Magna is the latest to cut its ad spending predictions following a similar move by WPP Media last week.
Major live events continue to prop up traditional media outlets, per Magna's 'Global Ad Forecast.' Though traditional media ad revenue is expected to decline in 2025, revenue remains flat when adjusting for the Olympics and U.S. elections.
Digital continues to be a driver of growth, largely due to an increase in usage. Retail media networks are predicted to generate $163 billion in sales. Growth factors, such as surging e-commerce, increased engagement and an expanded presence in emerging markets, continue to fuel retail media networks. Amazon Ads is the largest retail media network in the U.S. and is estimated to be larger than all other U.S. networks combined.
Keyword search, the largest digital ad format, will grow 8% to $357 billion. Core search, which includes Google and Bing, is expected to increase 7% to $217 billion. Retailer search will jump 12% to $140 billion and short-form platforms, including YouTube and Twitch, will see a revenue expansion of 7% to $80 billion, per the report.
Ad-supported streaming has proven to be popular, especially as consumers look to cut costs. Ad revenue from premium long-form CTV streaming services, including Hulu and Netflix, makes up 15% of total long-form video advertising globally, accounting for $23 billion out of $155 billion. In certain markets, such as the U.K. and the U.S., it accounts for 20% to 25% of total category revenue.
While the global ad market is seeing a slowdown in 2025, it is expected to recover in 2026 due to economic stabilization and major televised events, such as the FIFA World Cup, the Winter Olympics and the U.S. Midterms. The forecast calls for 2026 global ad sales to rise 6.3%, passing $1 trillion in revenue for the first time. The U.S. market will see a growth of 7.8% and pass $400 billion in revenue.
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