Power plays, tax fights and lost voices: PVO reveals what the first week of new parliament tells us

Daily Mail​

24-07-2025

Parliament returned this week not with a bang, but with a calculated rhythm.
No drama in the numbers, no early leadership tension, and no surprise legislative ambushes.
And yet beneath the calm surface, the first full sitting week of this new term - which only included two days of Question Time - revealed a lot.
The government was keen to look measured but quietly ruthless, an opposition still licking its electoral wounds was slowly finding its voice, while the crossbenchers immediately discovered just how little leverage they now have, other than the Greens who hold the balance of power in the Senate in their own right.
There was strategy at play on all sides: defensive, offensive and performative. And with tax policy fast becoming the next political battlefield during this parliamentary term, the tone may already have been set.
What were Anthony Albanese 's priorities?
Labor returned to Canberra laser-focused. Top of the list: pushing the HECS‑HELP cut to student debts through the parliament. Their signature pre-election promise - a 20 percent wipe-off for roughly 3 million Australians - was formally introduced in the House on Wednesday.
But beyond policy, optics mattered too. Labor deliberately dialled down the triumphalism. The tone was 'steady hand', not swagger. Ministers fronted the media emphasising unity and focus, a calculated effort to sidestep hubris.
Welcoming new MPs added another layer to the week. Ali France, Sarah Witty and others delivered first speeches: personal, grounded and in contrast to the Coalition's more familiar faces (those few who survived the electorate's cull).
Labor also took the chance to underscore the Coalition's troubles on the floor of parliament. Their failure to back a modest income tax cut before the election got plenty of Question Time airplay. So too the divisions over net zero. And a depleted number of Liberal women in the opposition's party room took away from its first female leader strutting her stuff.
The Nationals remain publicly split on 2050 emissions targets, with Barnaby Joyce and Michael McCormack pushing to scrap them entirely. It's hard not to think that at some point sooner or later there will be another challenge Nats leader David Littleproud will need to navigate.
Then came trade. Australia lifted biosecurity restrictions on US beef imports, widely seen as a move to smooth tensions with Washington and hopefully negotiate down the Trump trade tariffs.
Labor tried to claim the timing of the policy change was a coincidence, but the Coalition isn't buying that. It wants the decision reviewed, using the final Question Time to push its case that biosecurity standards have been sacrificed to the interests of trade.
There was no policy switch on beer tax, as Labor went ahead with its election promise to freeze the excise for the next two years. Cheers! A nice win for the outgoing CEO of the Brewers Association, John Preston, who had long advocated for an end to the continual hikes which have given Australia some of the highest beer taxes in the world. With pressure on the government to ease the cost of living, it will be interesting to see if the industry can successfully lobby to make the freeze permanent.
If the Coalition looked fractured and reactive, Labor appeared focused and composed. Less interested in gloating, more committed to governing, or at least projecting that impression.
How did the new Opposition leader perform?
Taking on what's often called the toughest job in politics, Sussan Ley managed her first full week with steadiness and restraint. It wasn't flashy, to be sure, but she avoided missteps.
Ley anchored her messaging to one issue: Labor's plan to tax unrealised super gains. It was a deliberate pitch to older Australians and SMSF holders. Her lines in Question Time were clear and targeted. She even ventured briefly into housing, territory the government prefers to control.
Ley didn't bite at the attempts to reignite the net zero wars. She stayed out of the mess, refusing to endorse or criticise the move, thus avoiding inflaming an already unstable internal debate. That said, it's likely this issue will explode within the Coalition sooner rather than later.
Away from the chamber, Ley focused on authenticity. Her 60 Minutes appearance on the Sunday before the sitting week commenced - speaking about the death of her mother and her reasons for taking the job - struck the right tone: restrained and sincere. It didn't prevent the first Newspoll of her leadership revealing that the opposition starts this term further down in the polls than the poor election showing in May.
Commentary on Ley's performance in her first parliamentary sitting week was mixed. Some accused her of lacking ideological edge. Others noted her improved recognition and clearer messaging. Her approval ratings remain low but she has time to turn that around.
Behind the scenes, Ley began rebuilding with internal reviews, outreach to business and community groups, and a reshaped shadow team. It's too soon to judge, but she made it through her first test without slipping. She even met with former long term Liberal deputy leader Julie Bishop during the sitting week, no doubt receiving some tips on how to navigate the male-dominated shadow cabinet she leads.
Does anyone remember the crossbench?
The crossbench went to the 2025 election with high hopes. A hung parliament was on the cards, and the independents and Teals saw themselves as likely policy shapers and kingmakers. But Labor's outright majority removed that possibility in an instant.
In the lower house, the crossbench is now politically irrelevant. Their speeches will still be heartfelt, and they'll get a sizeable share of questions given how small the opposition party room now is. But without leverage anything they do is largely symbolic.
The Senate, however, is a different story, but only for the Greens. With eleven seats, they hold the balance of power and have made clear they intend to use it. Most of what's passed so far hasn't been contentious, but that won't last.
Greens Senator Mehreen Faruqi ensured the crossbench wasn't entirely invisible. During the Governor-General's address, she stood mid-speech and unfurled a sign reading: 'Gaza is starving… Sanction Israel.' It drew formal censure and headlines, but no policy traction. Still, it was a reminder that the Greens won't fade quietly despite their poor performance in lower house electorates.
The rest of the crossbench? Watching from the sidelines, for at least the next three years. That includes ACT Senator David Pocock who made such a splash in his first term. The team of four One Nation senators led by Pauline Hanson also has little power, but their enlarged party room is a lead indicator that they will be in the running to share the balance of power after the next election.
What debates will we hear more about in the coming weeks?
The biggest issue emerging from this week is the looming political fight over taxing unrealised gains in superannuation. The government's Division 296 proposal (a 15 percent tax on earnings for super balances over $3 million, including on gains not yet realised) has become the central line of Coalition attack.
Ley and her deputy and shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien are already framing it as a broader tax threat. 'Will Labor now tax unrealised gains on everything?' was the line floated in Parliament, designed to create unease among all Australians, not just the rich few with huge super balances.
Labor maintains that the tax hits only 0.5 percent of people and will raise over $40 billion in the next decade. But there's disquiet, even internally. Some Labor MPs reportedly 'hate' the idea of taxing paper profits, even if they accept the budget imperative. Whatever way you cut it, the policy is badly designed, even if the goal of restricting super tax concessions for the wealthy has some merit.
The industry pushback is already intense, precisely because the design is so poor. SMSF groups warn they'll bear the brunt of what's coming. Hostplus wants indexation to avoid younger savers being caught by the tax in the future.
Then there's the politics. Anthony Albanese joked in Question Time: 'The time to run a scare campaign is just before an election, not after one.' A wry line, but from a man who well knows how effective a scare campaign can be.
Chalmers is framing the debate in class terms: 'This side of the House is cutting taxes for 14 million Australians. That side is going to the wall for 0.5 percent.' That may resonate, but it won't silence critics, and it gives away the Treasurer's penchant for class warfare, which might cripple his efforts to embrace serious tax reform. If indeed he is even serious about that looming debate.
The August tax summit will keep the issue of super in the headlines at the same time as broadening the discussion. Whether it resolves anything is another matter.
The noise around Division 296 will therefore carry into August, but it won't be the only game in town. What this week showed (quietly but clearly) is how each player plans to operate in the new political reality. Labor in control and careful not to overreach. The opposition disciplined, for now at least, despite Joyce and McCormack's best efforts. The crossbench adjusting to irrelevance.
The curtain has only just gone up, but the tone of the new parliamentary term is already taking shape.