A Chunk Of The Atlantic Isn't Warming As Quickly As Usual. Here's How That Could Impact This Hurricane Season.
A large patch of the eastern Atlantic Ocean isn't quite keeping up to the typical rate of warming for this time of year and that has us questioning what, if any, impacts there might be this hurricane season.
Don't get us wrong here: That part of the Atlantic is still warmer than average, but the thermometers aren't as above average as they had been last month and certainly not as warm as they were last year.
There are months ahead of us before these water temperatures will have any direct impacts on the tropics. Even as we start the hurricane season on June 1, we won't be looking into the distant eastern Atlantic for a couple more months.
We initially look at cold fronts, thunderstorm clusters and other swirls in the atmosphere closer to home – the western Atlantic, western Caribbean and the Gulf – for tropical systems early in the season.
(MORE: Notable Storms That Developed Early)
While that is happening, the conveyor belt of tropical waves in Africa is increasing production. These are the seeds for many of the hurricanes across the Atlantic. These seeds are often duds in June and July since other atmospheric and oceanic conditions aren't quite right yet.
But that conveyor belt continues to crank out waves as conditions improve.
Water temperatures are typically the first condition that becomes favorable for tropical systems in the stretch of water between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. This typically happens in July or August.
Relating this to 2025, if the rate of warming continues at this sluggish pace, this benchmark for water temperatures may be delayed. In theory, this could knock the number of tropical storms or hurricanes down a tad.
The Bottom Line: We'll need to see what water temperatures look like after July to see how the number of tropical storms or hurricanes might shake out in the end. If they're warmer than average, hurricane activity tends to be higher. If they're cooler, hurricane activity tends to be lower.
(MORE: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
- Water temperatures are not the only factor that can dictate the activity of a hurricane season. Dry air or dust, the presence of El Niño or La Niña, long periods of sinking air or strong wind shear can change the path that hurricane season takes each year.
- Water temperatures can become cooler or warmer during a hurricane season. Redundant activity over the same areas and even dust can change how a patch of water warms or cools.
- We continue to expect a slightly more active than average hurricane season. You can read the latest outlook here.
Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for nearly 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
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