Latest news with #JonathanBelles
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Ask A Met: Why Can't You Bomb A Tornado?
This week Morning Brief reader Lynda Buckler writes, "I've wondered why a plane couldn't fly above a tornado cloud and drop something into the cloud to disperse the funnel? I read of tornados traveling miles and miles with destruction in their path…so?" Senior Digital Meteorologist Jonathan Belles: Well, just to begin historically, I'm not aware of anyone attempting to divert a tornado, but we have diverted rain clouds. In fact, this has famously been done around the Olympics. Basically, the idea is that you want good weather for the Olympic games, so we want the rain that would normally fall to fall out somewhere else. China has done this a couple of different times. What they're doing is seeding clouds. Basically, a plane injects molecules into the clouds to make them heavier and cause the water molecules to fall out sooner. Typically, they're 100 miles upwind of where the storm would normally go. They seed the clouds and make them rain out before they get into the area that would be impacted. In theory, I think it's possible to apply that kind of technology to a tornado. You're just trying to get the storm to rain itself out. Tornadoes need thunderstorms. Thunderstorms need rain. And rain, obviously, needs moisture. You're trying to take one of those ingredients away from those thunderstorms, so that they can be less successful at producing a tornado later on. The problem with a tornado is a much, much smaller scale. They don't last very long in a thunderstorm or a big thunderstorm complex. Tornadoes may only last a couple of minutes. Sure, a rare one may go for more than 100 miles, but you still have to scramble the plane, arrange all of the ingredients to get the cloud seeding done, and get the pilot into the correct spot. So it's very, very tricky, I think. In the film Twisters in 2024, part of the plot is some kind of idea about being able to stop a tornado. Basically they are forcing the molecules to be too heavy, so that they'll fall out. The video effects in the film are a little pseudoscience-y. They show the actual thunderstorm complex doing, like, a little donut and falling to the ground. It's not probably how that would end up working, but, basically the idea is the same as the cloud seeding in China that I mentioned. If we somehow got 50 years down the line, totally hypothetical here, into the pattern of seeding every storm or every storm system that came across the Plains to produce tornadoes, we would be producing rain in the Rockies or fundamentally changing the climate of some other location. Do you want all of that water coming down into Denver, because we want to possibly stop a tornado in Kansas? Probably not. Somebody's going to be mad about that. We'd be adding rain somewhere and taking it away from somewhere else. So, we'd just be moving the problem from one place to another, right? But I do think this will be an ongoing discussion for the end of time. Do you have a question to ask the meteorologists at Write to us at and we'll pick a new question each week from readers to answer.
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane season forecast complication: The Atlantic has cooled
Hurricanes thrive on warm seawater, and meteorologists say cooler spring temperatures in the ocean where storms often form could mean we're in for a less punishing hurricane season. Meteorologists keeping a close watch on ocean temperatures in the Atlantic say it isn't as hot as it's been in recent years: "A large patch of the eastern Atlantic Ocean isn't quite keeping up to the typical rate of warming for this time of year and that has experts questioning what, if any, impacts there might be this hurricane season," said meteorologist Jonathan Belles in an online forecast. Another expert, Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY that "Tropical sea-surface temperatures are thankfully much cooler than they were last year at this time." How much cooler is the Atlantic? In fact, on average, sea-surface temperatures are almost 2 degrees cooler than this time in 2024, he said. That may not sound like much, but in the world of meteorology, it's a significant difference that can affect hurricane formation. "That's obviously good news for Atlantic hurricane potential, but overall, sea-surface temperatures are still a bit above normal overall," Klotzbach said. What about location? Klotzbach said ocean temperatures are a bit warmer than normal in the Caribbean Sea and eastern subtropical Atlantic and a bit cooler than normal in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Overall, though, "thankfully, sea-surface temperature anomalies are WAY cooler than they were last year at this time. They were downright scary in late April of 2024." The preseason predictions in 2024 called for a hyperactive season with dozens of storms possible. While the season finished above average, it wasn't quite as active as had been foreseen, with a total of 18 storms. This is because other factors also influence hurricane formation, such as dry air or dust in the atmosphere, the presence of El Niño or La Niña, along with long periods of sinking air or strong wind shear, Belles said. All of these "can change the path that hurricane season takes each year," he said. What does this year's forecast say? Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1. According to the most recent forecast from Colorado State University released in early April, another active season is likely with as many as 17 storms expected. Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast that nine will become hurricanes. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven of them spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records from 1991 to 2020. Colorado State will provide an updated forecast in early June. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast comes out later in May. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season forecast complication: The ocean has cooled
Yahoo
03-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Megaquake Could Greatly Increase Flood Risk In The Northwest, Study Says
A major earthquake could drastically change the geography of the Pacific Northwest and enhance the flood risk for those in the region. The new study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, says that if a megaquake rupture on the Cascadia Fault, some locations could drop by six feet almost instantly. The Cascadia fault line runs through California's North Coast, along with coastal areas of Oregon and Washington and into southwest Canada. Megaquakes have occurred on the fault at least seven times in geological records dating back over 3,000 years. It is thought that such quakes, those with magnitudes over 8.0, occur there every 400-600 years. This extreme subsidence expands the floodplain in the region from 35 to 116 square miles or roughly the size of Fresno, California. The floodplain is the area that has a 1-in-100 chance of flooding each year. (Recent News: Earthquake Strikes Near Chile, Argentina, Tsunami Alert Canceled) Besides just the change in geography, impacts to daily lives would be extreme. More than 14,000 residents and 22,500 structures would find themselves in the new floodplain. Nearly 800 miles of roads would also be more likely to flood. This megaquake would double flood exposure for the region. The Cascadia fault line sits on the "Ring of Fire" zone typically associated with volcanoes, but this region is also a hotbed for large quakes. Important caveat: There is no expectation that such a big quake is on the way any time soon, but scientists caution that when the big one hits, we may only have a few moments notice to get ready. The last major earthquake that struck the region was the 1700 Cascadia Earthquake – a magnitude 9.0 quake. According to the USGS, it's one of the largest quakes in the history of North America and hundreds of people were killed by either landslides or the tsunami that followed. Entire villages were swept away or buried. (WATCH: Elephants Form "Alert Circle" During California Quake) That quake caused rapid subsidence of 1.5 to 6.5 feet. Researchers are using the quake to create estimates of what a similar megaquake could do today. More recently, land sank by more than 3 feet in parts of Japan following the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for for nearly 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
USA Today
03-05-2025
- Climate
- USA Today
Hurricane season forecast complication: The Atlantic has cooled
Hurricane season forecast complication: The Atlantic has cooled Meteorologists are keeping a close watch on ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and have noted they aren't as hot they've been in recent years. Show Caption Hide Caption 2025 Atlantic hurricane season set to bring 17 storms across US The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be busier than average with 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, according to Colorado State University meteorologists. unbranded - Newsworthy Hurricanes thrive on warm seawater, and meteorologists say cooler spring temperatures in the ocean where storms often form could mean we're in for a less punishing hurricane season. Meteorologists keeping a close watch on ocean temperatures in the Atlantic say it isn't as hot as it's been in recent years: "A large patch of the eastern Atlantic Ocean isn't quite keeping up to the typical rate of warming for this time of year and that has experts questioning what, if any, impacts there might be this hurricane season," said meteorologist Jonathan Belles in an online forecast. Another expert, Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY that "Tropical sea-surface temperatures are thankfully much cooler than they were last year at this time." How much cooler is the Atlantic? In fact, on average, sea-surface temperatures are almost 2 degrees cooler than this time in 2024, he said. That may not sound like much, but in the world of meteorology, it's a significant difference that can affect hurricane formation. "That's obviously good news for Atlantic hurricane potential, but overall, sea-surface temperatures are still a bit above normal overall," Klotzbach said. What about location? Klotzbach said ocean temperatures are a bit warmer than normal in the Caribbean Sea and eastern subtropical Atlantic and a bit cooler than normal in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Overall, though, "thankfully, sea-surface temperature anomalies are WAY cooler than they were last year at this time. They were downright scary in late April of 2024." The preseason predictions in 2024 called for a hyperactive season with dozens of storms possible. While the season finished above average, it wasn't quite as active as had been foreseen, with a total of 18 storms. This is because other factors also influence hurricane formation, such as dry air or dust in the atmosphere, the presence of El Niño or La Niña, along with long periods of sinking air or strong wind shear, Belles said. All of these "can change the path that hurricane season takes each year," he said. What does this year's forecast say? Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1. According to the most recent forecast from Colorado State University released in early April, another active season is likely with as many as 17 storms expected. Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast that nine will become hurricanes. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven of them spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records from 1991 to 2020. Colorado State will provide an updated forecast in early June. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast comes out later in May.
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
A Chunk Of The Atlantic Isn't Warming As Quickly As Usual. Here's How That Could Impact This Hurricane Season.
A large patch of the eastern Atlantic Ocean isn't quite keeping up to the typical rate of warming for this time of year and that has us questioning what, if any, impacts there might be this hurricane season. Don't get us wrong here: That part of the Atlantic is still warmer than average, but the thermometers aren't as above average as they had been last month and certainly not as warm as they were last year. There are months ahead of us before these water temperatures will have any direct impacts on the tropics. Even as we start the hurricane season on June 1, we won't be looking into the distant eastern Atlantic for a couple more months. We initially look at cold fronts, thunderstorm clusters and other swirls in the atmosphere closer to home – the western Atlantic, western Caribbean and the Gulf – for tropical systems early in the season. (MORE: Notable Storms That Developed Early) While that is happening, the conveyor belt of tropical waves in Africa is increasing production. These are the seeds for many of the hurricanes across the Atlantic. These seeds are often duds in June and July since other atmospheric and oceanic conditions aren't quite right yet. But that conveyor belt continues to crank out waves as conditions improve. Water temperatures are typically the first condition that becomes favorable for tropical systems in the stretch of water between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. This typically happens in July or August. Relating this to 2025, if the rate of warming continues at this sluggish pace, this benchmark for water temperatures may be delayed. In theory, this could knock the number of tropical storms or hurricanes down a tad. The Bottom Line: We'll need to see what water temperatures look like after July to see how the number of tropical storms or hurricanes might shake out in the end. If they're warmer than average, hurricane activity tends to be higher. If they're cooler, hurricane activity tends to be lower. (MORE: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.) - Water temperatures are not the only factor that can dictate the activity of a hurricane season. Dry air or dust, the presence of El Niño or La Niña, long periods of sinking air or strong wind shear can change the path that hurricane season takes each year. - Water temperatures can become cooler or warmer during a hurricane season. Redundant activity over the same areas and even dust can change how a patch of water warms or cools. - We continue to expect a slightly more active than average hurricane season. You can read the latest outlook here. Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for for nearly 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
