The Global Economy Is Powering Through a Historic Increase in Tariffs
Faced with extreme uncertainty, businesses and households have surprised economists with their ability to hedge, finding a short-term path through as they await clarity on where tariffs will end up.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
10 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Donald Trump announces trade deal with Japan
US President Donald Trump has announced a trade framework with Japan, placing a 15% tax on goods imported from that nation. 'This Deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs – There has never been anything like it,' Mr Trump posted on Truth Social, adding that the United States 'will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan'. The president said Japan would invest 'at my direction' 550 billion dollars into the US and would 'open' its economy to American cars and rice. The 15% tax on imported Japanese goods is a meaningful drop from the 25% rate that Mr Trump, in a recent letter to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, said would be levied starting on August 1. Early Wednesday, Mr Ishiba acknowledged the new trade agreement, saying it would benefit both sides and help them work together. With the announcement, Mr Trump is seeking to tout his ability as a dealmaker — even as his tariffs, when initially announced in early April led to a market panic and fears of slower growth that for the moment appear to have subsided. Key details remained unclear from his post, such as whether Japanese-built cars would face a higher 25% tariff that Mr Trump imposed on the sector. But the framework fits a growing pattern for Mr Trump, who is eager to portray the tariffs as a win for the US. His administration says the revenues will help reduce the budget deficit and more factories will relocate to America to avoid the import taxes and cause trade imbalances to disappear. The wave of tariffs continues to be a source of uncertainty about whether it could lead to higher prices for consumers and businesses if companies simply pass along the costs. The problem was seen sharply on Tuesday after General Motors reported a 35% drop in its net income during the second quarter as it warned that tariffs would hit its business in the months ahead, causing its stock to tumble. As the August 1 deadline for the tariff rates in his letters to world leaders is approaching, Mr Trump also announced a trade framework with the Philippines that would impose a tariff of 19% on its goods, while American-made products would face no import taxes. The president also reaffirmed his 19% tariffs on Indonesia. The US ran a 69.4 billion dollar trade imbalance on goods with Japan last year, according to the Census Bureau. America had a trade imbalance of 17.9 billion dollars with Indonesia and an imbalance of 4.9 billion dollars with the Philippines. Both nations are less affluent than the US and an imbalance means America imports more from those countries than it exports to them. The president is set to impose the broad tariffs listed in his recent letters to other world leaders on August 1, raising questions of whether there will be any breakthrough in talks with the European Union. At a Tuesday dinner, Mr Trump said the EU would be in Washington on Wednesday for trade talks. 'We have Europe coming in tomorrow, the next day,' Mr Trump told guests. The president earlier this month sent a letter threatening the 27 member states in the EU with 30% taxes on their goods to be imposed starting on August 1.
Yahoo
10 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Analysis-US-Japan trade deal averts worst for global economy
By Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Japan's trade agreement with the U.S. could serve as the benchmark for many other deals currently being negotiated with Washington, and the global economy could just about support the 15% level agreed overnight, economists said. Tokyo's deal with the U.S. lowers tariffs on auto imports to 15% from levies totalling 27.5% previously. Duties that were due to come into effect on other Japanese goods from August 1 will also be cut to 15% from 25%. The deal with the world's fourth-largest economy, which includes commitments for U.S.-bound investment and loans, is the most significant of a clutch of pacts U.S. President Donald Trump has concluded to date. It raises pressure on China and the European Union, which both face crucial August deadlines. Although 15% is still a significant duty, such a level is still manageable and less damaging than the volatility created by the uncertainty, which has made it near impossible for firms to plan investments, some economists argue. "Average tariffs for the U.S. were around 2.5% for 2024 (while) currently, average tariffs stand around 17%," Mohit Kumar at Jefferies said, referring to the rise in global duties since Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" announcement on April 2. "Our base case remains that when the dust settles, we could see average tariffs around 15%, though recent deals suggest that this number could be slightly higher," Kumar said. "While a negative from a macro point of view, the world can live with 15% or so tariffs." Financial markets heaved a sigh of relief on Wednesday. AUTOMAKERS LEAD STOCK GAINS Japan's Nikkei stock index jumped 3.5% on the deal but European shares were also higher, driven by automakers, on growing optimism that workable deals are possible. "It looks like the benchmark for major economies is going to be 10-15% and a somewhat higher level for smaller economies," Derek Halpenny, head of research at MUFG in London, said. Volvo Car stocks jumped more than 10% while Germany's Porsche, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen, all with significant U.S. sales, rose between 4% and 7%. "This more positive trade news has really helped to ease investor fears that tariffs are about to snap back higher on August 1," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said. "But of course, the threat of much higher tariffs still remains for several large economies, including the 30% on the EU, 35% on Canada and 50% on Brazil," Reid added. "We also know from experience that we might not know the outcome until hours before the deadline." Longer-term U.S. inflation expectations eased a touch on the deal, suggesting that trade agreements could alleviate some price fears and give the U.S. Federal Reserve room to lower interest rates later this year. However, markets continue to see a close to zero chance of a Fed rate cut next week and the first move is not fully priced in until October. The EU, which negotiates trade deals on behalf of its 27 members, could be next. Trump has said he will impose 30% tariffs by August 1, triggering threats of retaliatory measures from the EU. Such a level would be economically debilitating for a bloc that relies heavily on trade and would wipe out whole chunks of transatlantic commerce. The EU originally hoped it could secure a tariff of around 10% but has since accepted the outcome is likely to be several points higher at least. Pressures also remain high on China, which is facing an August 12 deadline before tariffs could snap back to 145% on the U.S. side and 125% on the Chinese side without a deal or a negotiated extension. "The US-Japan deal will put more pressure on other major Asia exporters to secure better deals," ING said. "We've already seen trade deals with the Philippines and Indonesia. Before 1 August, there should be more deals struck with Asian exporters."
Yahoo
10 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Hilton beats earnings expectations despite modest RevPAR decline
-- Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.20 surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.03. Revenue for the quarter came in at $3.14 billion, slightly above the analyst forecast of $3.1 billion. The hotel giant's system-wide comparable RevPAR (revenue per available room) declined 0.5% on a currency neutral basis compared to the same period in 2024, attributed to modest occupancy declines that were partially offset by ADR (average daily rate) gains. Despite this top-line weakness, management and franchise fee revenues increased 7.9% YoY. Hilton's stock edged up 0.6% following the announcement. "We continued to demonstrate the power of our resilient business model as we delivered strong bottom line results in the quarter, even with modestly negative top line performance given holiday and calendar shifts, reduced government spending, softer international inbound business and broader economic uncertainty," said Christopher Nassetta, President & CEO of Hilton. For the full year 2025, Hilton projects adjusted earnings per share between $7.83 and $8.00, compared to the analyst consensus of $7.96. The company expects system-wide RevPAR to be flat to up 2.0% on a comparable and currency neutral basis versus 2024. Hilton's development pipeline reached a record 510,600 rooms as of June 30, up 4% from the previous year. The company added 26,100 rooms to its system during the quarter, resulting in 22,600 net additional rooms and contributing to net unit growth of 7.5% YoY. Related articles Hilton beats earnings expectations despite modest RevPAR decline Clients buying into summer rally, bracing for later pullback, says BofA's Hartnett If Powell goes, does Fed trust go with him? Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
