Britain's risk of power outages this winter lowest since pre-Covid, Neso says
The National Electricity System Operator (Neso) said there is set to be enough electricity to meet demand over the colder winter months.
In its early winter outlook, Neso anticipates an average operational margin – the difference between supply of electricity and demand for it – of 6.6 gigawatts (GW) from the end of October to the end of March.
This is the highest expected margin since the 2019-2020 winter and is greater than the 5.2 GW forecast last year.
The publicly-owned operator is tasked with ensuring that the supply of and demand for electricity always remains balanced.
If supply cannot meet demand then the country risks blackouts.
An increase in the margin has been driven by several factors, Neso said, including growth in electricity supply from battery storage at both a national and regional level – which enables power from renewables to be stored and then released when it is needed.
It also pointed to an increase in the availability of electricity generation from gas, and from a new power cable, known as the Greenlink interconnector, connecting electricity grids between Wales and Ireland.
This increased supply is expected to more than offset an expected rise in demand during peak periods.
The slight uptick marks a divergence from previous years, when demand has either stayed the same or fallen, but Neso said it is too early to say what might drive that increase.
Neso said it expects there to be around six minutes over the winter period where it might have to resort to special measures to keep the grid running smoothly.
In most cases where demand exceeds supply for a period of time, it is managed by the grid operator without any impact on consumers.
Neso stressed it was remaining 'vigilant' in its preparation for the winter amid changes in global energy markets.
'Our early view of the winter ahead shows a positive outlook with sufficient margins throughout the colder winter months,' Deborah Petterson, Neso's director of resilience and emergency management said.
'We will continue to monitor developments in global energy markets, remaining vigilant in our preparations to ensure that the resilience and reliability of the electricity network is maintained.'
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Telegraph
7 hours ago
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Britain to rely on France to avoid blackouts this winter
Britain will rely on electricity from France to guard against the risk of blackouts this coming winter, officials have said. The National Energy System Operator (Neso), which oversees Britain's electricity grid, said it would import power from France and other nearby European neighbours this winter to help backstop the network. It plans to use the interconnectors linking the UK with France, Holland, Belgium, Norway and Denmark to back up the UK's own power stations on 'tight days' when supplies are stretched. Interconnectors are high voltage cables laid across the seabed between the UK and its neighbours. Those currently in operation have a total capacity of about 9 gigawatts (GW), with plans to double that by 2030. Details of the UK's expected reliance on electricity imports have emerged in Neso's early winter outlook report, which sets out its plans for coping with the colder months. Officials said they expected 'sufficient operational surplus throughout winter, allowing for natural variations in weather'. However, they added: 'There may be some tight days and early indications suggest these are most likely to occur in early December or mid-January.' On these 'tight days', Neso will lean on imports from Europe to give the UK an extra safety margin of 6.6GW, or about 11pc of total demand, one of the highest buffers in recent years. Brush with disaster The large margin comes after a near disaster last Jan 8 when poor renewable power generation and soaring demand left grid operators scrambling to keep the lights on. The maximum demand the UK could face this coming winter is about 60.5GW, Neso said – roughly equivalent to 20 large nuclear power stations of the kind under construction at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Backup power supplies are essential to support the UK's power grid as the reliance on renewables such as wind and solar increases. British winters often include lengthy 'dunkelflaute' spells marked by low light levels, short days and low winds. Such weather triggers a slump in renewable power generation and was a key cause of the brush with disaster in January. Some of the interconnectors Neso was relying on had also been shut down as a result of failures or maintenance. Over the last year about 37pc of the UK's electricity has come from renewable sources but solar switches off at night and wind is highly variable, meaning alternative sources are important. The UK is increasingly reliant on overseas generators with annual cost of power imports hitting £3.1bn in 2024 compared with £1bn in 2019, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Most electricity comes from France. Longer-term projects include Xlinks – a planned 2,500-mile set of cables between the UK and Morocco, connecting with a 1,500 square mile array of wind and solar farms in the north African desert. Spanish lessons Managing supply and demand on the electricity grid is a vital job. Shortages or surpluses of electricity can cause voltage and frequency fluctuations that can trigger blackouts, as happened in Spain and Portugal in April. A report into Spain's disastrous April blackout on Tuesday blamed power grid operator REE for having too few thermal power stations switched on. Such power stations use the heat from nuclear reactors or from burning gas or coal to generate steam, which in turn spins heavy metal turbine generators at fixed speeds. It means the electricity they produce has a very constant frequency and voltage, which helps to stabilise the whole grid. REE did not have enough thermal power stations switched on during peak hours of April 28 when the surge caused a chain reaction leading to the power outage, Sara Aagesen, Spain's energy minister, said. The report also criticised a number of power plant operators for not being switched on when they were being paid to operate. The unnamed power plants 'should have controlled voltage and, moreover, many of them were economically remunerated to do so. They did not absorb all the reactive power that was expected in a context of high voltages,' she said.
South Wales Guardian
8 hours ago
- South Wales Guardian
Britain's risk of power outages this winter lowest since pre-Covid, Neso says
The National Electricity System Operator (Neso) said there is set to be enough electricity to meet demand over the colder winter months. In its early winter outlook, Neso anticipates an average operational margin – the difference between supply of electricity and demand for it – of 6.6 gigawatts (GW) from the end of October to the end of March. This is the highest expected margin since the 2019-2020 winter and is greater than the 5.2 GW forecast last year. The publicly-owned operator is tasked with ensuring that the supply of and demand for electricity always remains balanced. If supply cannot meet demand then the country risks blackouts. An increase in the margin has been driven by several factors, Neso said, including growth in electricity supply from battery storage at both a national and regional level – which enables power from renewables to be stored and then released when it is needed. It also pointed to an increase in the availability of electricity generation from gas, and from a new power cable, known as the Greenlink interconnector, connecting electricity grids between Wales and Ireland. This increased supply is expected to more than offset an expected rise in demand during peak periods. The slight uptick marks a divergence from previous years, when demand has either stayed the same or fallen, but Neso said it is too early to say what might drive that increase. Neso said it expects there to be around six minutes over the winter period where it might have to resort to special measures to keep the grid running smoothly. In most cases where demand exceeds supply for a period of time, it is managed by the grid operator without any impact on consumers. Neso stressed it was remaining 'vigilant' in its preparation for the winter amid changes in global energy markets. 'Our early view of the winter ahead shows a positive outlook with sufficient margins throughout the colder winter months,' Deborah Petterson, Neso's director of resilience and emergency management said. 'We will continue to monitor developments in global energy markets, remaining vigilant in our preparations to ensure that the resilience and reliability of the electricity network is maintained.'
North Wales Chronicle
8 hours ago
- North Wales Chronicle
Britain's risk of power outages this winter lowest since pre-Covid, Neso says
The National Electricity System Operator (Neso) said there is set to be enough electricity to meet demand over the colder winter months. In its early winter outlook, Neso anticipates an average operational margin – the difference between supply of electricity and demand for it – of 6.6 gigawatts (GW) from the end of October to the end of March. This is the highest expected margin since the 2019-2020 winter and is greater than the 5.2 GW forecast last year. The publicly-owned operator is tasked with ensuring that the supply of and demand for electricity always remains balanced. If supply cannot meet demand then the country risks blackouts. An increase in the margin has been driven by several factors, Neso said, including growth in electricity supply from battery storage at both a national and regional level – which enables power from renewables to be stored and then released when it is needed. It also pointed to an increase in the availability of electricity generation from gas, and from a new power cable, known as the Greenlink interconnector, connecting electricity grids between Wales and Ireland. This increased supply is expected to more than offset an expected rise in demand during peak periods. The slight uptick marks a divergence from previous years, when demand has either stayed the same or fallen, but Neso said it is too early to say what might drive that increase. Neso said it expects there to be around six minutes over the winter period where it might have to resort to special measures to keep the grid running smoothly. In most cases where demand exceeds supply for a period of time, it is managed by the grid operator without any impact on consumers. Neso stressed it was remaining 'vigilant' in its preparation for the winter amid changes in global energy markets. 'Our early view of the winter ahead shows a positive outlook with sufficient margins throughout the colder winter months,' Deborah Petterson, Neso's director of resilience and emergency management said. 'We will continue to monitor developments in global energy markets, remaining vigilant in our preparations to ensure that the resilience and reliability of the electricity network is maintained.'
