'No end in sight' to Gaza war as Europe changes tone on Israel: Professor
Chatham House's Yossi Mekelberg tells Silvia Amaro "just suspending talks is not going to make a difference," after Germany becomes the latest European nation to change its tone on Israel.
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CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
What Germany's Merz wants to tackle in Trump meeting
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday, with much to discuss at a time of trade disputes and ongoing war in Europe. During both of his presidential terms, Trump has triggered tensions between long-standing allies U.S. and the European Union. "The tone is as rough as it has not been in a long time," German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said in a speech on German-U.S. relations earlier this week. White House officials have not always found friendly words for Berlin in recent months, and vice versa. But there have been some signs of rapprochement, with the country's leaders now reportedly being on a first name basis after several phone calls. Building on this will be a top priority for Merz in D.C. "Top of the agenda for the German Chancellor will be to strike the right chord with Trump," Jörn Fleck, senior director of the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council, told CNBC. Merz's conservative views on immigration, his links to U.S. businesses — the chancellor is a former BlackRock executive — "and a profile as an old-school outsider who was underestimated but won an election by pledging to restore his country's economy and security," could work in his favor, Fleck explained. Export-reliant Germany counts the U.S. as its biggest trading partner, leaving it vulnerable in the face of Trump's trade agenda. Penny Naas, who leads on the German Marshall Fund's allied strategic competitiveness work, told CNBC that this is especially true for sector-specific tariffs, for example targeting autos and steel. They "hit industries at the core of the German economy," she said. "Merz will want to see if there is any room for negotiation on these tariffs," such as the U.S. and EU cutting all industrial duties to zero, Naas added. Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs, which have also been imposed on the European Union, are also set to be on Merz's agenda, Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC. "He is likely to stress his support for free trade and a EU-US trade deal. He may point to the EU's proposal of a zero-for-zero tariff deal as an ideal outcome," she said. Negotiations between the EU and U.S. have so far been tough, but European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic on Tuesday signaled talks were "advancing in the right direction." The Russia-Ukraine war will also almost certainly be discussed, especially after Trump's Wednesday phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. European leaders have pushed Trump to apply pressure on Putin, and Merz is expected to follow suit, the Atlantic Council's Fleck said. Palmas meanwhile said Merz would likely "reiterate Germany's strong support for Ukraine and the need for European countries to be involved in peace negotiations." U.S. support for Kyiv has been uncertain, along with Trump's focus on expediting peace-making between Russia and Ukraine — raising concerns in Europe. Topics like U.S. support for European troops on the ground, enforcing sanctions and sharing information may therefore come up, Fleck added. Another critical topic will be the NATO military alliance in which both Germany and the U.S. participate and specifically members' defense contributions. Trump has long been pushing for these expenditures to rise to 5% of each country's gross domestic product, meeting some resistance. Fleck noted that "Merz will want to make sure Germany is no longer seen as a laggard on defense spending and capabilities." Given Germany's recent fiscal reforms that allow for higher defense costs and its support for Trump's 5% NATO spending target, the German chancellor should have "a positive story to tell" on this front. Capital Economics' Palmas added that Merz may even use the occasion to announce a specific defense spending target.
Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
Trump's F-47 Could Become Sitting Ducks for China
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. U.S. aircraft, including the in-development F-47 stealth fighter, could be threatened by advanced Chinese weapons at U.S. bases in the Indo-Pacific, experts warn as Washington turns its gaze toward the region and possible Chinese designs on Taiwan. F-47s at U.S. Air Force (USAF) bases in the Indo-Pacific will have to contend with China's mid- and long-range missiles, said John Hemmings, the deputy director for geopolitics at the Council on Geostrategy in the U.K. "Combine that with what some have seen as under-investment in active base defenses, and we see that USAF—like all services and allies—will have critical issues keeping their aircraft safe," Hemmings told Newsweek. There is a "growing cruise and ballistic missile threat" to USAF bases in the Pacific, prompting the U.S. military to take a long look at its air defenses around these facilities, the RAND think tank said in an analysis commissioned by the U.S. Pacific Air Forces and published on Tuesday. President Donald Trump beside an image of an F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 21. President Donald Trump beside an image of an F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 21. Pool via AP China is able to attack "all U.S. bases in the Indo-Pacific region," and defenses around these bases have not kept up with the threats they could face, according to the think tank. The USAF has looked at ways to make air bases in the region more protected, but "improvements to date have been limited, though the threat has advanced substantially," the analysis said. More money has been spent on "active defenses," such as missile systems, but "spending on passive defenses has significantly lagged behind," it continued. Passive defenses can include camouflage and decoys. The U.S. under President Donald Trump has made its intention to turn away from Europe toward the Indo-Pacific clear, sparking a flurry of commitments among European allies to raise defense spending and rely less on American personnel and U.S.-supplied kit. "The U.S. is prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific," U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told European allies in Brussels in February, adding, "Together, we can establish a division of labor that maximizes our comparative advantages in Europe and Pacific respectively." Hegseth said on Saturday that Beijing was "preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific" and was gearing up for the "real deal" of an invasion push on Taiwan. Imagery captured by the ESA's Sentinel-2 satellites on May 30 shows Kadena Air Base on Okinawa Island in southwestern Japan. Imagery captured by the ESA's Sentinel-2 satellites on May 30 shows Kadena Air Base on Okinawa Island in southwestern Japan. Copernicus Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway part of mainland China that it intends to one day reunite under central control. But Taipei, which has established a democratic government, has long asserted its independence from Beijing and aligned itself with Western allies. "The threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent," Hegseth said during a speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense forum in Singapore. China's Foreign Ministry denounced the speech as "filled with provocations and intended to sow division." "China deplores and firmly opposes them and has protested strongly to the U.S.," Beijing added. Imagery captured by the ESA's Sentinel-2 satellites on May 29 shows Andersen Air Force Base on the U.S. territory of Guam. Imagery captured by the ESA's Sentinel-2 satellites on May 29 shows Andersen Air Force Base on the U.S. territory of Guam. Copernicus Trump announced in March that Boeing would be the main contractor for a new Air Force sixth-generation stealth jet, currently known as the F-47. "Nothing in the world comes even close to it," Trump said at the time. The U.S. Navy's parallel program to get a sixth-generation jet in the air is known as F/A-XX. The Pentagon hopes to prioritize the F-47 development over the F/A-XX, believing going after two programs at once could slow both down, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. China is developing its own sixth-generation fighter, the J-36. Footage emerged late last year appearing to show a new Chinese stealth fighter flying over the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu. The future F-47, when deployed in the Indo-Pacific, will need fixed bases that would "be under mortal threat" from China's long-range weapons, Tom Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security think tank, wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday. Militaries across the world will have to rethink how they protect their air bases and expensive aircraft after Ukraine pulled off an elaborate, coordinated drone attack on several Russian air bases on Sunday, analysts say. Ukraine said it hit 41 of Russia's aircraft, including at least one of its scarce A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft and several long-range, nuclear-capable bombers. One Ukrainian official said 13 aircraft had been destroyed, which could not be independently verified. Satellite imagery from the Siberian air base of Belaya and Olenya, an Arctic base in Murmansk—just two of the targeted bases—showed several destroyed Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers. Airfields and aircraft "will need to have their passive and active defenses upgraded to deal with this UAV [uncrewed aerial vehicle] threat," said Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst with the Dutch think tank TNO. "If there ever was a clear call for action, this is it," he told Newsweek. "The genie is out of the bottle." Hemmings added, "We are in a new era of asset vulnerability."
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
How Merz plans to avoid an Oval Office pasting
No other European leader has criticised Donald Trump as fiercely as Friedrich Merz, Germany's new chancellor. On Thursday, the two will come face to face in Washington in what is the biggest test of Mr Merz's tenure so far. It means entering the gladiatorial arena of the Oval Office and enduring the impromptu press conferences now dreaded by visiting leaders the world over. Mr Trump has already ambushed Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky, South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa and Jordan's King Abdullah II in front of the cameras. But Mr Merz is no pushover. 'When he comes into the room, everyone goes quiet, like when the schoolteacher comes in,' a source from his centre-Right Christian Democrats (CDU) said. 'And he can be really tough on people, to the point of being rude.' Leaders in Europe will be hoping that Mr Merz will be able to soften Mr Trump's stance on Ukraine and convince the president to drop 50 per cent tariffs on EU imports. And Mr Merz has been doing his homework before his daunting date at the White House. He has sought advice from Giorgia Meloni, Italy's prime minister who is admired by Mr Trump, and Alexander Stubb, Finland's president, who scored a diplomatic coup by playing an impromptu round of golf with the US leader. Mr Merz, a former BlackRock banking executive, will look to bond with Mr Trump, rather than directly confront him. He has been advised to let the president do most of the talking and if he must commit the sin of interrupting, to soften that with praise. But like Canada's Mark Carney, who survived his Oval Office visit unscathed, Mr Merz is not afraid of confronting the world's most powerful man. The bespectacled old school conservative rounded on Mr Trump on the night of his election victory in February. Mr Merz was incensed that JD Vance and Elon Musk had endorsed and promoted the far-Right Alternative For Germany (AfD) during the campaign. He declared the Trump administration was meddling in Germany's democracy after the AfD came second in their best ever election result. Mr Merz added that Berlin and Europe could no longer rely on the US for its security and warned that Nato could soon be 'dead'. It felt like the end of the international order created from the ruins of the Second World War. The two leaders have since spoken on the phone during which the chancellor told the president the US remained Germany's 'indispensable partner'. But the truce did not last long. Asked about the call at a conference later, Mr Merz mimicked Mr Trump's voice, to laughs from the audience, and said every second or third word the president said was 'great'. Days later, when Germany's domestic intelligence agency designated the AfD as a 'Right-wing extremist' group, Mr Vance, the Oval Office attack dog, went for the jugular. 'The West tore down the Berlin Wall together. And it has been rebuilt – not by the Soviets or the Russians, but by the German establishment,' the vice-president said. These were 'absurd accusations', replied Mr Merz. 'I did not interfere in the American election campaign,' the chancellor said before telling the US government to 'largely stay out' of German politics. The two leaders' differences over Ukraine have narrowed recently but Mr Trump has a problem with Germany. His dislike of Angela Merkel, the former chancellor, was plain and he had little to no time for Olaf Scholz, her successor. For the tariff-wielding president, Berlin has too long profited from a massive trade surplus with the US, spending the money on woolly social policies while freeloading on America's defence of Europe. To make matters worse, it is deeply committed to the EU, which the president says was set up just to 'screw' the US. Germany, a faltering exporting powerhouse, now faces the prospect of massive 50 per cent US tariffs on the EU imports. The AfD wants Germany to strike its own tariff deal with Washington, but Mr Merz has ruled out breaking ranks with the EU. 'Together, we are even bigger than the US,' he said in May. ' We are united, to a large extent anyway, and that will be my message to the American government.' CDU sources said Mr Merz was optimistic about the relationship, and that they did not need a 'reset' with the US. Mr Merz and Mr Trump share a background in the macho corporate world and are of a similar age. The chancellor has two private jets, while the president has his own Boeing 757, nicknamed Trump Force One. Mr Merz is a family man with two daughters: Constanze, a doctor, and Carola, a lawyer – more potential common ground with Mr Trump, who has five children. They also share a love of golf, although Mr Ramaphosa, the South African president, was not spared fake accusations of white farmer genocide even though he brought golf legend Ernie Els with him to Washington. And King Abdullah II won't forget being told to take in displaced Gazans under Mr Trump's 'Middle East Riviera' plan. But Mr Merz shares a populist streak with Mr Trump. Soon after taking office, Mr Trump declared a national emergency over immigration. Mr Merz did exactly the same thing. Mr Merz is also no fan of Mrs Merkel, who sidelined him from the CDU during her 16 years in power. The chancellor's vow to make Germany's army Europe's strongest may convince the president the two can do business. Günter Krings, a senior CDU MP, said: 'Given his business background, his self-confident appearance and his focus on Germany's role in the world, there is a very good chance Trump will see him as his main European counterpart in the coming years.' German political analysts said Mr Merz would show 'respect' to Mr Trump, but expect the same in return. 'I suspect that Trump will give Merz a chance. He's got a decent story to tell on promised defence spending increases,' a European diplomatic source in Washington said. 'The real risk is Vance in the Oval Office on freedom of speech – particularly the new laws in Germany banning extremism which Vance has seen as an attack on the AfD and anti-democratic.' 'The Americans know that the fight for freedom of expression and sovereignty is being waged everywhere,' an AfD source told The Telegraph. 'That's why they cannot look away when democracy is simply abolished in their most populous ally.' The AfD is now the main opposition and just a whisker behind the CDU in the polls. It will be watching on intently from Berlin as Mr Merz and Mr Trump meet in Washington, as will the world. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
