Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: Futures Mixed on Fed Rate Cut Hopes
Treasuries rallied as tepid US economic data reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 10 basis points to the lowest level in almost a month. Equity-index futures for Asia were mixed while an index of US-listed Chinese shares rose 2%. We get a read on markets from Willem Sels, Global Chief Investment Officer at HSBC Global Private Banking and Premier Wealth. Plus - economic activity declined slightly in the US in recent weeks, indicating tariffs and elevated uncertainty are rippling across the economy, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. Mentions of tariffs came up 122 times in the Beige Book, compared with 107 in the prior report. Variations of the word "uncertain" appeared 80 times. We look at what it may mean for monetary policy with David Bahnsen, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at the Bahnsen Group.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Forbes
22 minutes ago
- Forbes
‘Ticking Time Bomb'—Stark $37 Trillion Wall Street Warning Fuels Huge Bitcoin Price Predictions
Bitcoin and crypto prices have soared this year, fuelled by a combination of U.S. president Donald Trump's support and Wall Street adoption (with Tesla billionaire Elon Musk making a dramatic return to the front lines of crypto this week). Front-run Donald Trump, the White House and Wall Street by subscribing now to Forbes' CryptoAsset & Blockchain Advisor where you can "uncover blockchain blockbusters poised for 1,000% plus gains!" The bitcoin price, after rebounding sharply from its April lows, has held above $100,000 per bitcoin since early May even after BlackRock issued a serious bitcoin warning. Now, as fears swirl of a 'cataclysmic' U.S. dollar collapse, Jim Esposito, the president of market maker Citadel Securities, has warned the spiraling $37 trillion U.S. debt pile is a 'ticking time bomb'—adding to similar warnings that some think could be about to send the bitcoin price sharply higher. Sign up now for the free CryptoCodex—A daily five-minute newsletter for traders, investors and the crypto-curious that will get you up to date and keep you ahead of the bitcoin and crypto market bull run Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is grappling with a $37 trillion debt "ticking time bomb" as ... More Wall Street's embrace of crypto pushes up the bitcoin price. 'The stock of debt and the budget deficit is a ticking time bomb,' Esposito said at the Piper Sandler Global Exchange & Trading Conference in comments reported by Reuters. 'No one is smart enough to predict when exactly it will rear its ugly head. We've been talking about this for more than 20 years, so in some ways the market's gone into complacency, but over a multi-year period we can work this out.' Esposito added that Citadel Securities, a Wall Street market-making giant that was founded by hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin, plans to ramp up its bitcoin and crypto trading this year in anticipation of a new crypto regulatory framework. "Crypto is definitely a space we're going to get bigger in, and we're excited about the prospects," Esposito added. The worsening U.S. debt crisis, which has dramatically blown up the relationship between Elon Musk and president Trump this week, was exacerbated by massive government spending through Covid lockdowns. The rise in U.S. debt comes as the Federal Reserve, led by chair Jerome Powell, holds the line on interest rates despite pressure from Trump and the bond market suffers highly volatile swings that are a sign of waning faith in the U.S. from investors. Economic and monetary uncertainty has pushed some traders and companies toward bitcoin, leading to a flood of bullish bitcoin price predictions. Sign up now for CryptoCodex—A free, daily newsletter for the crypto-curious The bitcoin price has set a new all-time high in recent weeks, soaring as fears swirl around the ... More spiraling U.S. debt pile. 'The dominant story for bitcoin has changed again,' Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick wrote in an emailed note. 'It was correlation to risk assets ... It then became a way to position for strategic asset reallocation out of U.S. assets.' Kendrick has predicted the bitcoin price will soar to $500,000 per bitcoin by the end of Trump's presidency in early 2029 as a result of his U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve and the ending of stifling regulations that will see more companies by bitcoin. 'Institutions are reinforcing their exposure to bitcoin, building out their bitcoin treasuries,' Seamus Rocca, the chief executive of bitcoin and crypto custody company Xapo Bank, said in emailed comments. "Whether you're looking at institutional flows or retail behavior, the message is the same: conviction in bitcoin's long-term value is holding firm–and growing.'
Business Insider
23 minutes ago
- Business Insider
Job growth was better than expected in May despite heightened economic uncertainty
The US added 139,000 jobs in May, more than expected, and the unemployment rate didn't budge. Economists predicted job growth of 126,000 and for unemployment to remain at 4.2%. This is the third straight month of a 4.2% rate and the 13th straight month at or above 4%. The new data release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is just one of several recent reports illustrating the much-watched US labor market. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that some businesses are delaying hiring due to economic uncertainty. Separately, the National Federation of Independent Business showed small business optimism has continued to weaken. While insured unemployment claims are still low, they climbed in May. The back and forth on tariffs, including a 90-day pause with China and higher duties on steel and aluminum, is adding pressure to business decisions. Cuts and deferred resignations within federal government agencies could mean job seekers turn to the private sector or leave the labor force. "Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies' workforces," Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a report before Friday's news release. "Companies are spending less, slowing hiring, and sending layoff notices." President Donald Trump has argued tariffs will help the US economy, despite some short-term pain for businesses and consumers. CME FedWatch showed based on market trades an overwhelming chance the Federal Reserve will decide to hold interest rates steady at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in mid-June. Like business owners, the Fed is hoping for more clarity on the evolving economy.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Jobs data from May could show a mostly stable economy, but economists say Trump tariffs will soon bite
Signs are growing that President Donald Trump's unprecedented tariffs strategy is starting to take a bigger bite out of the U.S. economy. Still, the latest jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to show some economic stability persisted into May. Forecasts were for 120,000 new payrolls added in the last month; most economists consider anything above 100,000 a healthy figure — though it would still represent the fewest monthly jobs created since February and fall below the recent 12-month average of about 150,000. Even if the job numbers beat forecasts, other data are already pointing to signs of a softening economy. On Wednesday, private payroll processor ADP reported the weakest monthly jobs total since March 2023. While economists say ADP's data often align with the official BLS data, the trend is clear, with ADP reporting fewer jobs added in five of the past seven months. A separate report from the Institute for Supply Management showed that activity at U.S. service firms unexpectedly contracted last month for the first time in nearly a year, while hiring decelerated. On Thursday, the Department of Labor reported weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected, reaching their highest level since October — while continuing unemployment claims remained elevated, an indication that it is taking longer for out-of-work people to find a job. 'We're throttling back — and the damage from the trade war is still coming,' Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told NBC News. Zandi said forthcoming inflation readings are likely to reflect firms raising prices due to Trump's import taxes. Indeed, a Federal Reserve survey released Wednesday indicated 'widespread reports' of companies 'expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward,' with higher tariffs 'putting upward pressure on costs and prices.' Separately, a Congressional Budget Office study now estimates inflation will increase by an average of 0.4 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 as a result of Trump's tariffs. As prices begin to rise, consumer dollars won't go as far, Zandi said. That will likely lead to a feedback loop of reduced economic activity and reduced hiring. 'The job market already feels fragile,' he added. As demand softens 'more palpably,' Zandi said, 'we'll start to see layoffs' — with BLS jobs data likely falling consistently below 100,000 in the coming months. Already, firms are showing signs of holding back on investment and bringing on new workers. Earlier in the week, the BLS reported that the hiring rate remains stuck at levels last seen in 2014, when the U.S. economy was still emerging from the Great Recession. Trump has claimed that thanks to his tariffs, the U.S. economy is 'booming.' Yet he continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which would make it easier for businesses and consumers to borrow money. In a post on Truth Social Wednesday, he pointed to the weak ADP payrolls numbers as evidence that the economy needs support. Analysts say that despite the gathering signs of economic deterioration, the bar remains high for the Federal Reserve to lower rates. Instead, the central bank will likely continue to err on the side of keeping interest rates elevated to ensure the pace of price growth remains under control, said Andrew Husby, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas financial group. For consumers, that means relief is still not in sight. 'It's going to take something obviously cracking in a sustained way' for the Fed to reduce borrowing costs, Husby said. This article was originally published on
