Trump's deal with Pakistan raises a big question: Does India's arch-rival really have large oil reserves? Here's what we know

Time of India

4 days ago

Trump Pakistan Deal: Donald Trump announced a new energy deal between the U.S. and Pakistan, hinting at potential oil sales to India despite recent tariffs. Pakistan's current proven reserves are modest, but seismic surveys suggest significant offshore potential. Realizing this potential requires substantial investment and could face geopolitical challenges from China.
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Just hours after slapping 25% tariffs on India, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new energy deal with Pakistan on Wednesday, framing it as a joint project to tap what he called the country's 'massive oil reserves.' Trump's remarks, shared on Truth Social , included a surprising hint: that Pakistan might one day sell oil to India. The bold claim has reignited debate over Pakistan's real oil potential — a subject that remains more promise than proven reality.In a post on his social media platform, Trump said the United States and Pakistan are 'in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership' aimed at developing Pakistan's oil resources. Framing the deal as a future-looking energy alliance, Trump wrote, 'Who knows, maybe they'll be selling Oil to India some day!' The timing — coming just after economic penalties on India — adds geopolitical weight to the deal.Despite Trump's grand language, Pakistan is not currently sitting on confirmed 'massive' oil reserves. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Worldometer data, Pakistan had 353.5 million barrels of proven oil reserves as of 2016, placing it 52nd globally and accounting for just 0.021% of the world's total reserves. At current consumption levels (about 556,000 barrels per day), these reserves would cover less than two years of domestic demand without imports or new discoveries.Daily oil production in Pakistan hovers around 88,000 barrels, far below national consumption, forcing the country to import about 85% of its oil.Trump's comment may be based on recent geological surveys in Pakistan's Offshore Indus Basin, where seismic data has pointed to potential hydrocarbon formations. A three-year survey, conducted with support from a 'friendly country,' identified large underwater structures with oil and gas signatures. Some speculative estimates suggest these could rank among the world's top four reserves, after Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.However, these claims are not yet substantiated. No commercial drilling has confirmed the presence, size, or quality of these resources. Experts warn these are not reserves in the technical sense, as they lack development plans, proven recoverability, or commercial viability.The Indus Basin's geological structure, shaped by tectonic activity and rich in mudstone formations, does make it a promising zone for future oil and gas discovery. Seismic interpretation suggests thick source rocks and possible traps, but no successful offshore extraction has occurred in Pakistan so far. Past offshore attempts, such as the Kekra-1 well, failed to yield results.Nonetheless, the energy ministry and the state-run Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) are hopeful that with foreign investment and advanced exploration, this picture could change.In early 2024, Pakistan's Ministry of Energy made headlines by announcing the preliminary results of a multi-year offshore seismic survey in the Offshore Indus Basin, claiming the discovery of substantial hydrocarbon potential.Former Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) member Muhammad Arif and technical experts from state-run companies like OGDCL clarified that these formations cannot yet be classified as "reserves." In the petroleum industry, a resource is only considered a 'reserve' when it is discovered, commercially viable, and supported by a full development plan. In this case, no exploratory drilling has been carried out, and no oil or gas has been commercially extracted from these offshore zones.The 2024 claims are based on 2D and 3D seismic interpretations that point to promising structural traps and thick source rocks in tectonically active zones along the Murray Ridge, where the Indian and Eurasian plates meet. The geological setup includes potential source rocks from the Cretaceous to Miocene age, raising hopes among geologists about future discoveries.Developing these potential reserves isn't cheap. Experts estimate it could take $5 billion and 4–5 years just to confirm and begin development of the offshore sites. Infrastructure — pipelines, refineries, ports — would require even more capital. Pakistan's ongoing economic crisis, including a $126 billion external debt and a high energy import bill of $17.5 billion (2023), complicates matters.Refining capacity is also limited. Pakistan's existing refineries handle around 450,000 barrels per day, already strained by domestic needs.Discovered in the 1960s with ~60 million barrels in place, though only 12–15% is recoverable.Discovered in the 1980s and now contribute the bulk of Pakistan's onshore oil production.Pakistan's largest gas field, discovered in 1952, but not a source of crude oil.These legacy fields contribute to current production but are nowhere near enough to meet demand.Trump's suggestion that Pakistan might supply oil to India someday is highly speculative. Beyond the uncertain state of Pakistan's reserves, political and logistical barriers loom large. India already secures oil from the Middle East and Russia at scale. Any energy corridor from Pakistan would require improved diplomatic ties, stable cross-border infrastructure, and verified commercial production.The US entry into Pakistan's oil exploration space could also unsettle China, which has already made significant strategic and financial investments in the country, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Many of these projects, including energy infrastructure and port development, are concentrated in Balochistan, a province that is not only home to untapped oil and gas potential but also to a long-running insurgency and local protests against federal resource control. If the US-Pakistan oil partnership moves forward in regions like Balochistan, it could trigger geopolitical friction with Beijing, which views Pakistan as a key Belt and Road ally. Furthermore, local armed groups in Balochistan have repeatedly targeted both Chinese workers and Pakistani state infrastructure, raising questions about security, sovereignty, and the viability of any large-scale foreign-led energy project in the region.President Trump's announcement of a joint oil venture with Pakistan has put the spotlight on a country rarely discussed in global energy circles. But there's a long road between promise and production. Until exploratory drilling confirms the size and quality of these formations, Pakistan's oil future remains speculative. For now, the Trump-Pakistan deal is more about strategic positioning than proven petroleum power.As of 2016, Pakistan has 353.5 million barrels of proven oil reserves, placing it 52nd in the world.Pakistan produces approximately 88,000 barrels per day, far below its daily consumption of over 550,000 barrels.Not yet. Seismic surveys in the Offshore Indus Basin suggest potential reserves, but no commercially viable discoveries have been confirmed.Around $5 billion and 4–5 years of exploration, drilling, and infrastructure investment are required just to begin commercial development.That's highly speculative and would require confirmed reserves, production scale-up, and improved diplomatic and trade relations between the two countries.