The Oilers' tweak that could change Stanley Cup Final rematch vs. Panthers

New York Times

2 days ago

This week has been an overwhelming one for Edmonton Oilers fans. The injury to Zach Hyman that will cost the team its best winger for the rest of the playoffs, the return of Mattias Ekholm to the lineup and Calvin Pickard stepping in as backup goaltender were all explosive developments. Add that to the strong showing at home versus the Dallas Stars, and then closing out the series on Thursday night, and heads are spinning in Oilers Nation.
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It's been the equivalent of trying to take a drink from a firehose. Now, after the Florida Panthers flattened the Carolina Hurricanes to win the East, talk will move on to the Stanley Cup Final.
Oilers fans got one answer on Thursday night in the game versus Dallas. Corey Perry was deployed in Hyman's role on the No. 1 line and flourished.
Some answers will come in the days ahead. Key among them? How to overcome the Panthers, who are as close to the 1970s Philadelphia Flyers 'Broad Street Bullies' as we're likely to see in the modern hockey era. What can the Oilers do in order to defeat the Panthers' suffocating forecheck and fantastic skill on quick turnovers?
The key to winning is already evident.
The Oilers are enjoying an impressive run at five-on-five during this spring's playoffs. The SA-60 numbers in the game state are almost identical to last spring's playoffs, and the expected GA-60 is slightly higher than one year ago. With those facts in play, one would expect a higher GA-60, but the results in this year's playoffs are running counter to prevailing wisdom:
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
There are a few reasons this could be happening. Luck is often overlooked, and impossible to accurately measure, but it's important to acknowledge it exists and may skew the math. If regression hits during the Stanley Cup Final against Florida, we can safely credit luck and the natural order of things (regression) for it.
The eye test suggests the Oilers are defending less, and more specifically, are running around in their own zone less often during this spring's postseason. The team's save percentage year over year has improved markedly, but there's reason to believe (visually) the Oilers are doing a better job in puck retrieval and breakouts.
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Why are the Oilers better at five-on-five goal suppression this spring?
After Game 3 of the series against Dallas, Meghan Chayka of Stathletes published some powerful numbers. Ignoring the outstanding offensive numbers on the Edmonton side, Chayka pointed to the Stars' inability to get shots, scoring chances and goals off the rush. The Stars thrived in this area of the game during the regular season and have several proven drivers in this area of the game.
The Oilers' SA-60 numbers at five-on-five haven't changed much since last year, but the club is surrendering fewer goals. The Chayka numbers tell us that while Dallas was shooting the puck, the Stars were not, in fact, making the goalie move, nor scoring goals.
Low percentage shots from opponents and Edmonton playing less in its defensive zone are keys. Both innovations are helping the goaltenders. The year-over-year save percentage for the Oilers: .896 in 2024's playoffs, .922 this season. Stuart Skinner and Pickard are (as Chayka describes in her graph) in motion far less than last year.
The Oilers invested $3.6 million of the overall cap in goaltending in 2024-25. That's the lowest among true Stanley Cup contenders.
When general manager Stan Bowman arrived, he didn't look for an upgrade in net (although there were calls for it from many fans and media).
Instead, he addressed defence, and added men who could handle the puck. One of his first moves came when he acquired Ty Emberson. During the regular season, Bowman signed veteran John Klingberg, who struggled early but has emerged as a playoff giant in puck retrieval, outlets and finding seams for passes. It is Klingberg who gives the Oilers' second pairing a dangerous offensive edge.
Finally, at the deadline, Bowman acquired Jake Walman, who has a complete skill set. Walman is a puck mover, passer and creative thinker offensively, and has grown over the years as a coverage defenceman. Edmonton's defence is better for his presence, and the second pairing (Walman-Klingberg) has often been the best one during this year's playoffs.
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The top three unduplicated pairings (in blue) show exceptional goal suppression. The formula Edmonton is currently using for retrieval and outlets, matched to the defensive pairings that are doing well (as above), gives the Oilers an advantage fans did not see one year ago.
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That advantage should be on display against the Panthers in the final. Ekholm's presence will also be felt. Ekholm and Evan Bouchard played 10 clean minutes defensively at five-on-five against Dallas on Thursday night and were on the ice for one Oilers goal.
The idea of moving the puck expertly and deploying veteran defencemen isn't new to Edmonton management. The same summer the Oilers drafted Connor McDavid, new (at the time) general manager Peter Chiarelli signed veteran two-way defenceman Andrej Sekera. He was a perfect fit for the organization, and with young and astute puck movers like Oscar Klefbom in the system, the club appeared set for the next several years.
Injuries had an impact, but Edmonton managers could never find enough of this player type, let alone get ahead of the problem. Chiarelli added Adam Larsson, who was a quality shutdown type but not a pure passer. Nurse had passing issues.
When Ken Holland arrived in 2019, he immediately went to work on the problem. His solutions were expensive (Duncan Keith) and too old to have a sustained impact (again Keith). Once the organization signed Brad Holland as pro scouting director, and the analytics department held more sway, more capable names (specifically Ekholm) were added.
It should be noted that Bouchard was an astute draft selection by Chiarelli and his scouts in 2018. His growth in all areas over the last two seasons, and especially the playoffs, has been a key element in Edmonton's success in puck moving.
The Florida forecheck is suffocating. Stuart Skinner has improved as a puck handler, and that may come into play in an effort to aid the defencemen.
Using the middle of the ice for outlets has been effective for the Oilers, but Florida will have scouted Edmonton, and new wrinkles may be required.
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The bottom line for the Oilers: Bowman's acquisition of puck movers, specifically Walman and Klingberg, has tilted the ice in the Oilers' favour through three rounds of the postseason.
Will it work against the Panthers? Stay tuned.
(Photo of Roope Hintz and Jake Walman: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)