S&P 500, Nasdaq close at record highs, cap best quarter in over a year
Nasdaq
reached record closing highs on Monday, capping their best quarter in over a year as hopes for
trade deals
and possible rate cuts eased investor uncertainty.
Both indexes ended the quarter with double-digit gains. The S&P 500 gained 10.57% during the period, the Nasdaq rose 17.75%, and the Dow climbed 4.98%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap index rose 8.28% in the quarter. Still, the three main indexes posted their weakest first-half performances since 2022, as the uncertainty around trade policy has kept investors wary during the year, with tensions peaking after President Donald Trump disclosed widespread tariffs on April 2.
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Trade deals with China and the UK have fueled optimism that an all-out global trade war can be minimized, with hopes for more deals to be reached before Trump's July 9 trade deadline.
The end of the quarter was also influenced by managers tweaking their portfolios to look more attractive at quarter-end.
"Animal spirits seem to have taken hold here," said Roy Behren, co-president of Westchester Capital management fund. "It is also quite common for the last couple of days of a quarter to see strength because of the window dressing." On Sunday, Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting U.S. tech firms, just hours before it was due to take effect, in a bid to advance stalled trade negotiations with the United States. But U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Monday that countries could still face sharply higher tariffs on July 9 even if they are negotiating in good faith, and any potential extensions will be up to Trump. Meanwhile, U.S. Senate Republicans will try to pass Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill, despite divisions within the party about its expected $3.3 trillion hit to the $36.2 trillion national debt. Trump wants the bill passed before the
July 4 Independence Day
holiday.
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Key
economic data
releases this week include monthly non-farm payrolls and the Institute for Supply Management's survey on manufacturing and services sectors for June.
Several U.S. central bank officials including
Federal Reserve
Chair Jerome Powell are scheduled to speak later this week.
A raft of soft economic data and expectations that Trump will replace Powell with someone dovish have pushed up bets of rate cuts from the Fed this year.
On Monday, nine of the 11 S&P indexes closed up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 275.50 points, or 0.63%, to 44,094.77, the S&P 500 gained 31.88 points, or 0.52%, to 6,204.95 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 96.28 points, or 0.48%, to 20,369.73. Shares of big U.S. banks rose after most cleared the Federal Reserve's annual "stress test," paving the way for billions in stock buybacks and dividends.
Leading the S&P 500 were Hewlett Packard Enterprise, up 11.1 %, First Solar up 8.8 %,and Juniper Networks up 8.45 %.
"The current rally was driven by few heavyweight stocks that drove indexes up, giving the market a sense of optimism despite rising deficit and unresolved policy issues," said Cole Smead, CEO and portfolio manager of Smead Capital Management.
"The stock market doesn't seem to care at all, people think this party is going to go on forever," he said. "I think this game is over. It's just a matter of when and how bad it gets."
Volume on U.S. exchanges was 17.12 billion shares, compared with the 18.23 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
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India Today
27 minutes ago
- India Today
The thick red line: Why India shouldn't agree with US on agri
July 9, Donald Trump's tariff deadline, is fast approaching. He's expecting a "very big deal". Indian officials camping in Washington, DC, have extended their stay, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar rushing to the US capital to meet his counterpart, Marco Rubio. Amid all this diplomatic hustle and heat, New Delhi's goal is clear — secure a favourable interim deal for India before Trump's threatened high tariffs, up to 26%, on Indian exports, kick in. But there's an impasse in the talks. India has a "big red line", on which it will find difficult to negotiate. Team Trump is reportedly seeking concessions from India in the agriculture and dairy sectors. There are big reasons why India shouldn't agree to the US demands on agri and Delhi has dug in its heels, and is determined to safeguard India's domestic agricultural sector, and the dairy domain. Millions of Indians, about 40% of the population, are employed in the sector, even though it's not as heavily subsidised as farming in the US, whose government is driving a hard bargain to ensure American agricultural products don't face steep import tariffs in the US tries to project it as an attempt at creating a level playing field, the situation is heavily tilted in its favour. A mere quid pro quo tariff regime will not address the mismatch created by the US by providing massive subsidies to its farmers vis-a-vis farmers in India. While farmers in the US get over $61,000 in subsidies annually, their counterparts in India get just $282 a India rightly called the agriculture and dairy sectors a "big red line", it, in all likelihood and fairness, shouldn't give in to Trump's demands because doing so could jeopardise the livelihoods of nearly half the country's workforce dependent on agriculture, say the data and could expose the Indian market to heavily subsidised US farm dumping, undermine food security standards, some tied to religious and cultural practices, fear experts and reportedly the Indian government and a think tank."As far as the import of genetically modified (GM) soybean, maize and dairy products from the US is concerned, the government does not seem to be ready for it at all," agricultural expert Om Prakash tells India Today there are risks of cross-pollination from GM crops that could harm India's native seed varieties. There's also the matter of dietary sensitivities and consumer trust, especially in dairy, where feeding cattle animal remains clashes with Indian cultural and religious values."India is protective of its farmers, which is why they have relatively high tariffs compared to anywhere in the world," agricultural trade expert Sharon Bomer Lauritsen told Politoco."They're going to protect their farmers," added the former negotiator of the US Trade ROLE IN EMPLOYMENT: INDIA-US CONTRASTadvertisementFirst, let's look at the numbers. They will highlight how agriculture produces, employment, and their demand and supply vastly differ between India and the US, and why trade negotiations must acknowledge these realities with of 2020, around 196.64 million people were employed in agriculture in India, compared to just 2.11 million in the US. Agriculture accounts for 41% of total employment in India, while in the US, it is merely 1%. At 14.6%, agriculture is one of the biggest components of India's GDP, while it contributes 0.92% to the American it comes to average farm size, the difference is average farm holding in the US is about 180 hectares, while in India, it is just 1.08 in the US also receive significantly more government support, with an average of $61,286 per farmer (2016), compared to $282 per farmer in India (2018–19), according to World Trade Organisation (WTO) data, accessed from Kisan Tak, India Today Digital's sister portal on agriculture, farmer welfare and expert Om Prakash says that India has been constrained by the WTO's discriminatory policies since the Agreement on Agriculture (AOA) came into effect on January 1, 1995. He argues, "India's farm subsidy is significantly lower, even more so when adjusted per farmer, yet the WTO continues to pressure India to reduce it even further".advertisementKisanTak's Prakash ties them directly to the WTO's flawed subsidy accounting WTO's subsidy accounting method is flawed because it doesn't look at how many farmers India has. It just counts the total money given to them. On the other hand, the US, with fewer farmers, gives more money, and each farmer gets a much bigger sum. But in India, where millions of farmers get little help, it looks like India is giving more than it should, even when it's IF INDIA LOWERS TARIFFS ON US FARM AND DAIRY GOODS?To ring-fence its farmers and the agriculture sector, India is forced to charge much higher import tariffs on agricultural products compared to the average, India puts a 39% tax on farm goods coming from other countries. But for the items that are imported the most, the tax goes up to 65%. This shows how strongly India protects its farmers by making imported farm goods more expensive. In contrast, the US keeps its agricultural import taxes lower, with a simple average of just 5% and a trade-weighted rate of 4%, according to data from the New Delhi-based think-tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has warned that reducing import tariffs on subsidised US agricultural products, particularly grains, could harm Indian farmers and destabilise food prices in India. Lowering tariffs could allow cheap, subsidised US grains to flood the Indian market, especially when global prices are would potentially undercut local farmers and disrupt the domestic food supply in staples like frozen shrimp, basmati rice, and spices still lead India's export basket, there's been a notable surge in shipments of processed cereals and other value-added food products. On the import side, India continues to source premium items from the US, with almonds, pistachios, and walnuts making up a significant AAYOG BACKED GM IMPORTS, CONGRESS PROTESTEDA March NITI Aayog discussion paper titled Promoting India-US Agricultural Trade Under the New US Trade Regime highlighted stark productivity gaps between the two noted that "India's average soybean yield has stagnated around "one tonne per hectare", whereas in the US, it is "3.4 tonnes per hectare". Similarly, "maize yields in India are just 3.5 tonnes per hectare," compared to "11.1 tonnes per hectare in the US".advertisementThese differences, the now-withdrawn paper says, show there is "a clear scope for improvement" in India's agricultural paper, whose withdrawal attracted Congress MP Jairam Ramesh's attack on the Centre, argued that beyond strategic trade management, "India must undertake medium-term structural reforms to improve the global competitiveness of its farm sector". These reforms should focus on "bridging the productivity gap with developed nations by embracing appropriate technologies", while also "nudging states to undertake long-pending reforms".It further called for "liberalising private sector participation", enhancing logistics, and developing "competitive value chains" to strengthen India's agricultural exports. The Centre's move to do the same suffered backlash during the farm protests of is the world's biggest buyer of edible oil, and the US has a lot of soyabean oil to export, which comes from genetically modified crops. The NITI Aayog paper said India could allow some imports of this oil to reduce the trade imbalance with the US, without hurting local farmers."Except for cotton, no other GM crop is allowed to be cultivated in India. In such a scenario, the question of importing GM soybean and maize from the US for consumption simply does not arise. In essence, the US-India trade deal poses a trial by fire for the Indian government, to safeguard the interests of farmers, agriculture, and the faith of the country's vegetarian population," Om Prakash tells India Today NITI Aayog paper also said India should try to get better access to the US market for top exports like shrimp, fish, spices, rice, tea, coffee, and rubber. India earns about $5.75 billion every year from farm exports to the US, and this could grow if India negotiates for lower duties or special trade leader Jairam Ramesh, on June 30, pointed out that the NITI Aayog working paper had been withdrawn from the think-tank's website. India Today Digital also could not access it. Ramesh alleged that the paper recommended duty-free import of GM maize and soyabean from the US. He added, "For the Modi sarkar, the interests of Midwestern American farmers and large Multinational Corporation traders are bigger than that of the maize farmers of Bihar and soyabean farmers of MP, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan".Lowering tariffs could also disrupt India's food security."In today's geopolitically unstable world, food security must remain sovereign," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava was quoted as saying by news agency Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in a June interview with the Financial Express, said that New Delhi will not compromise on areas that affect vulnerable domestic said that agricultural and dairy sectors remain "very big red lines" in the HOLDS FIRM ON BAN OVER ANIMAL-FED COW MILK PRODUCTSThen there are dietary, cultural and religious sensitivities that complicate the issue of dairy imports from the US, especially when it comes to genetically modified products or items derived from animals not raised according to the norms of several Indian communities. These concerns are deeply rooted and can't be dismissed as mere trade hurdles, as they touch upon dietary restrictions, traditional practices, and firmly maintains its ban on importing dairy products from cows fed animal-derived feed, according to the USRT's National Trade Estimate (NTE) Report, according to news agency ANI."Imagine eating butter made from the milk of a cow that was fed meat and blood from another cow. India may never allow that," GTRI's Srivastava wouldn't like to compromise with milk and dairy products as they are used in religious rituals are several reasons why the big red line exists when it comes to food imports. Cultural beliefs, employment, the agricultural markets, and concerns over the long-term impact are some of them. GM crops' impact on health and the environment is another concern. These are not just policy preferences but emotional and political red zones trade is deeply sensitive in India too. These developments follow the massive farmer protests in 2020-21 and again in 2024. The policy shift revamping agricultural trade triggered protests and resistance, enough for the Centre to a way forward may be there. Sure, it'll take time, persuasion, trust-building, and change, which could be in favour of one of the two parties. But why not both?- EndsTune InMust Watch
Hindustan Times
28 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
In pics: Car sales in India slump in June, SUVs contonue to buck the trend
1/10 The Indian PV market witnessed a mixed sales performance in June 2025, with three of the top four OEMs, including Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai and Tata Motors recording sales slump amid weak consumer sentiment. The automakers have blamed it to the geopolitical crisis, Weighed down by a slowdown in retail demand, car manufacturers reduced passenger vehicle supplies to the auto dealers in June. This resulted in a seven per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in wholesale dispatch numbers. Seven of the country's largest car manufacturers, cumulatively accounting for 95 per cent of the domestic PV market, dispatched 300,226 units to their dealer networks last month. 2/10 The small car sales continued to see a lacklustre performance last month, while SUVs bucked the trend of declining sales. Since 2019, the Indian PV industry's entry-level price point has increased by more than 70 per cent, which was largely driven by stricter safety and emission regulations. Over the same period, sales of small cars have dropped by more than 70 per cent. This has directly impacted the carmakers such as Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai and Tata Motors adversely. 3/10 Maruti Suzuki registered its weakest domestic monthly sales in more than 18 months. The OEM that has the largest pool of small cars saw a 13 per cent YoY drop in wholesale volumes in June 2025, down to 118,906 units compared to 137,160 units sold in June last year. Small cars like Alto K10 and S-Presso saw sales plummet to 6,414 units from 9,395 units. On the other hand, sales of compact models like Baleno, Celerio, WagonR, Swift, Ignis, and Dzire declined to 54,177 units from 64,049 units. Sales of the brand's utility vehicles, including Grand Vitara, Brezza, and Jimny, dropped to 47,947 units from 52,373 units, despite high demand for SUVs. 4/10 Hyundai reported a 12 per cent drop in wholesale numbers last month, with 44,024 units sold as compared to 50,103 units recorded in June 2024. Hyundai has blamed this on the geopolitical crisis and low consumer sentiment as key factors and anticipates recovery with lower repo rates, improving liquidity and the Talegaon plant production. However, Hyundai Creta retained the crown of highest selling passenger vehicle for the third consecutive time in June 2025. 5/10 Tata Motors too posted a steep decline last month, with its wholesale volume slumping 15 per cent YoY to 37,083 units, including electric vehicles. While demand for its ICE-powered models came under pressure, the homegrown auto company noted continued strength in its EV portfolio, where it sells models like Tiago EV, Tigor EV, Punch EV, Nexon EV, Curvv EV, and recently introduced Harrier EV. 6/10 Kia recorded a three per cent YoY sales slump at 20,625 units in June 2025. The South Korean car manufacturer under the Hyundai group sells popular cars like Sonet, Seltos, Carens and Carens Clavis, among others. The car manufacturer has a presence in the Indian electric car market as well. 7/10 Honda Cars India too reported a 22 per cent sales slump with 5,124 units in June 2025, comprising 4,618 units sold in the domestic market and 506 units exported. Domestic sales of the company dropped by 3.9 per cent, while exports saw a slump of 89.8 per cent YoY. The Japanese car manufacturer sells popular models like the Amaze, City, and Elevate. 8/10 Mahinda is the only car manufacturer among the top four in the Indian passenger vehicle market that reported growth last month. The homegrown auto giant retained its second position in the sales chart last month. The automaker registered an 18 per cent YoY wholesale growth, ending the last month with 47,306 units. The OEM sells some of the popular SUVs like Thar, XUV 3XO, XUV700, Scorpio N, Bolero Neo, Scorpio Classic, Thar Roxx, etc. 9/10 Toyota Kirloskar Motor too was able to buck the trend slightly. The Japanese car manufacturer registered a modest three per cent YoY increase in June wholesales with 26,453 units. The carmaker sells popular models like the Innova Crysta, Fortuner, among others. 10/10 JSW MG Motor India charted a 21 per cent YoY sales growth in June sales numbers, with 5,829 units sold. The automaker sells models like the Hector, ZS EV, Comet, Gloster, etc. However, since the launch of the Windsor EV, MG has been witnessing continuous growth in its passenger vehicle sales. First Published Date: 03 Jul 2025, 14:10 PM IST
Business Standard
32 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Nifty tad above 25,500 level; consumer durables shares rally for 4th day
The key equity benchmark traded with modest gains in early afternoon trade, amid positive global cues. The Nifty traded a tad above the 25,500 level. Consumer durables stocks extend gains for the fourth straight session. At 12:30 IST, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, advanced 154.15 points or 0.18% to 83,563.84. The Nifty 50 index jumped 54.95 points or 0.22% to 25,508.35. In the broader market, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.18% and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index jumped 0.46%. The market breadth was positive. On the BSE, 2,111 shares rose and 1,710 shares fell. A total of 181 shares were unchanged. Economy: The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 60.4 in June 2025 against 58.8 in May 2025. Monitored companies linked the upturn to positive demand trends and ongoing improvements in sales. Indian service providers ended the first fiscal quarter on strong footing. Output and new order intakes rose at the fastest rates since August 2024, aided by another robust expansion in international sales and job creation. New orders expanded at the quickest rate since August 2024. Services companies benefited most from the continued strength of the domestic market, alongside a marked increase in new export business. The HSBC India Composite PMI Output Index rose from 59.3 in May to 61.0, indicating the fastest rate of expansion in 14 months. Growth quickened at both manufacturers and service providers. Derivatives: The NSE's India VIX, a gauge of the market's expectation of volatility over the near term, fell 1.30% to 12.28. The Nifty 31 July 2025 futures were trading at 25,597.60, at a premium of 89.25 points as compared with the spot at 25,508.35. The Nifty option chain for the 31 July 2025 expiry showed a maximum call OI of 44.8 lakh contracts at the 26,000 strike price. Maximum put OI of 66.9 lakh contracts was seen at the 25,000 strike price. Buzzing Index: The Nifty Consumer Durables index rose 0.84% to 39,235.45. The index gained 2.76% in four consecutive trading sessions. Blue Star (up 4.49%), Voltas (up 2.87%), V-Guard Industries (up 2.53%), Havells India (up 2.35%), Whirlpool of India (up 2.03%), Kajaria Ceramics (up 2%), Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (up 1.25%), Bata India (up 1.02%), Amber Enterprises India (up 0.93%) and Cera Sanitaryware (up 0.83%) advanced. On the other hand, Kalyan Jewellers India (down 0.98%), Titan Company (down 0.3%) and Century Plyboards (India) (down 0.08%) edged lower. Stocks in Spotlight: CSB Bank added 2.03% after the banks gross advances increased by 32% to Rs 33,142 crore as of 30 June 2025 from Rs 25,099 crore as of 30 June 2024. Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services rose 2.50% after the company reported a 1% year-on-year increase in overall disbursements at Rs 12,800 crore for the first quarter.
