BJP's Southward Surge: Can It Crack Tamil Nadu in 2026?

The Hindu

4 hours ago

Published : Jun 20, 2025 21:05 IST - 10 MINS READ
The date was November 22, 2020. Sitting in his Hyderabad office, a political analyst could not believe the survey findings in front of him: it predicted that the BJP was poised to win only about 30 seats in the 150-ward Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) election. The election was less than 10 days away, scheduled for December 1. The news was communicated to Union Home Minister Amit Shah. 'What happened next is unbelievable. Almost the entire top brass of the BJP landed up in Hyderabad. They campaigned home to home, apartment to apartment, and street to street,' the analyst said. Everyone available was roped in: Union Ministers Amit Shah, Smriti Irani (no longer part of the Cabinet), and Rajnath Singh divided the city among themselves and coordinated with ground crews. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was a prominent presence in a city known for its susceptibility to communal polarisation and violence. Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an appearance on November 28, ostensibly to 'review vaccine development for COVID' at the Bharat Biotech facility but also to campaign—for a municipal corporation election.
No strategy was left unused. The campaign relied heavily on communal messaging, including the demonisation of Rohingya refugees living on the margins of Balapur and other suburbs.
The right-wing Swarajya magazine had this to say: 'The party, which is ruling at the Centre, has caught its supporters by surprise by bringing in many heavyweights to campaign for the GHMC elections in which the stakes seem to be high for it.' Its then executive editor wrote on November 27: 'Hyderabad could be BJP's gateway to Telangana and observers say the GHMC poll is more of an 'ideological battle'.'
From a mere four seats in 2016, the BJP increased its tally to 48 in 2020, forcing the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (Telangana Rashtra Samithi at that time) to join hands with Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen to run the corporation.
A political adviser, who has worked for the BJP and other political parties, said that there are two factors that distinguish the BJP from others: 'First, the BJP tries various permutations and combinations starting with the Hindutva push, in any State or any election. While the Hindutva push will always remain in the background, it will keep working at the ground level, crunching numbers to figure out how to make inroads. Second, there is a critical number that the BJP's leadership wants to achieve in a survey before it pushes forward with all its resources. Once the number is achieved, the party reacts quickly, decisively, and pulls out all the stops,' he said.
Three leaders from different political parties in the south, in different words, said the same thing: The BJP under Modi and Shah is an election-winning machine; it works very hard and looks for opportunities that could be exploited for votes. 'Can you imagine that every single leader—Amit Shah included—have a booth that he or she is responsible for. Show me a comparable system in any other party,' said one leader, requesting anonymity.
In Tamil Nadu, where the Assembly election is due in April 2026, the BJP's strategy has been to align with the main opposition party, push the narrative that the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is a corrupt party, and that only the 'first family' matters. 'The format which the BJP goes after is family rule, arrogance, and corruption. If they are not sure about the results, they will not touch it,' said one BJP sympathiser.
Corruption and family rule are topics that the BJP has continuously harped on in Tamil Nadu. 'The DMK has crossed all limits of corruption with one scam after another,' Amit Shah told a public meeting on June 8 in Madurai, in Hindi, a language that not many speak or understand in the State. He was in the State for the party's core council meeting. Shah's other allegations were that the DMK had dishonoured Lord Murugan, and that under its rule, crime and drugs have surged in Tamil Nadu.
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For the BJP, the attack on dynasty or family is only one part of its project. The other part is seeking an alliance that will propel the saffron party to power. For this, it has tied up with the the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which is the only major challenger to the DMK with its strong cadre base, a fact that best positions it to harvest any anti-incumbency votes.
But the manner in which the alliance was stitched up has not gone down well even with second-rung AIADMK leaders. On April 11, Amit Shah arrived in Chennai and at a press conference with AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami, it was Shah who announced the news of the alliance and named Palaniswami as the leader of the alliance, but the AIADMK leader remained silent on stage. When asked if this amounted to a humiliation of the party, one AIADMK functionary curtly responded: 'No.'
'Every act has a context. Please do not forget how long Maharashtra leaders [Devendra] Fadnavis and others had to wait in Delhi for an appointment. Finally, they met Modiji after about five days. In the case of Andhra Pradesh leaders, they did not even get an appointment after two days. They were just given a letter of support. Contrast that with Palaniswami getting Amit Shah to come to Chennai to make the announcement,' he added.
Then, there is the removal of former IPS officer K. Annamalai as the president of the BJP's State unit, reportedly at Palaniswami's insistence. While AIADMK leaders deny in public that the party made such a demand, they are more than happy to admit it in private and to claim that this incident proves that Palaniswami is not a pushover. On April 11, Annamalai was replaced by Nainar Nagendran, a former AIADMK Minister and current BJP MLA. Nagendran, who joined the party in 2017, contested from Tirunelveli in the 2021 Assembly election. Nagendran is soft-spoken compared with Annamalai and is expected to build rapport with alliance partners and smoothen the strained relationship.
Tamil Nadu BJP leaders are excited about Shah's announcement that he will make frequent trips to the State. 'From now, you will see how the BJP works when it sets its mind to something,' said a BJP State leader. Asked if this meant there would be more raids by Central agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate and the income tax department, he said: 'If someone is corrupt, then a raid is natural.'
While these are obviously the BJP's strengths, the party also has its share of problems. One of its key concerns is the space that the ousted Annamalai continues to occupy within the Tamil Nadu unit. For instance, at a meeting in Madurai on June 8, it was evident that he remained the most popular leader among the cadres—so much so that he had to repeatedly urge them to stop cheering for him.
Annamalai has also been freely expressing his views about the party and its alliance in press meets, often in contradiction with the party's stance. 'It will be a BJP rule,' he responded to a question on government formation after the 2026 Assembly election. This is different from what both Shah and Palaniswami had asserted. While Shah talked about a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in the State, the AIADMK made it clear that it would be an AIADMK government. There is no history of a coalition government in the State. In 2006, when the DMK fell short of a majority, the alliance partners supported the government from outside.
The second problem for the BJP is the challenge that actor turned politician Vijay poses. The BJP expects his party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), to take away some of the minority and Dalit votes. This may not happen in the way the BJP desires it. Vanni Arasu, a Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi MLA, said that merely because Dalit youths watch a lot of movies does not mean they will vote for Vijay. 'Young people know who has stood up for them in the villages and towns. Movies are entertainment that last for a few hours,' he said.
The third problem is that the natural allies of the NDA—the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)—are yet to make up their minds about an alliance. In the case of the DMDK, party leader Premalatha has said that the party will decide only by January 2026. In her reasoning, since the election is only in April 2026, there is no need to rush into an alliance. The DMDK, which was launched by Vijayakanth, a popular film star, emerged as the principal opposition party in the State Assembly in 2011 but is now a pale shadow of its former self. It, however, still has some following and has the option of moving to the DMK alliance if its demands are not met or are watered down.
The PMK is in the throes of an ugly battle between S. Ramadoss, the founder, and his son Anbumani Ramadoss. As of now, the son controls the party because he is the party president and almost all office-bearers are his loyalists. The challenge for Anbumani is that the Vanniyar community, which forms the party's main vote base, continues to place its trust in his father.
The NDA is grappling with the dilemma, and it even sent S. Gurumurthy, editor of Thuglak magazine, to settle the family feud. It did not work.
The BJP's strength, nationwide, lies in its ability to lure leaders from other parties, small and large. They are then used to bolster the BJP's strength and numbers in the respective States—from Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam to Jyotiraditya Scindia in Madhya Pradesh, this list is long.
In Tamil Nadu, this model has not worked in the manner that the BJP would have liked. In fact, one prominent person to move from the DMK to the BJP was Ku.Ka. Selvam, a former MLA from Thousand Lights, in 2020. He was a close associate of Chief Minister M.K. Stalin but parted ways when he was not accorded the importance he thought he deserved. Selvam blamed Stalin's son, Udhayanidhi, for his decision to quit the DMK.
He lasted under two years in the BJP, before returning to the DMK in 2022. Selvam said he was cast aside in the BJP because of intra-party politics. However, two other prominent former DMK faces continue to be in the BJP: former Deputy Speaker V.P. Duraisamy and former agriculture wing head K.P. Ramalingam. Duraisamy was expelled from the DMK in May 2020 after an outburst against the leadership. The BJP is keeping both on the sidelines.
Meanwhile, the DMK has been proactive in ensuring that disgruntled regional leaders do not leave the fold. In 2024, a prominent politician, who had held important portfolios in the DMK, expressed his interest in joining the TVK.
What happened next was straight out of a movie script. According to one source, a TVK leader contacted a DMK leader close to Stalin and revealed what was under way. The matter was then discussed extensively among the DMK's top leadership, who decided the leader in question had to be retained. A few months later, at a party event, the DMK instituted a new award and presented it to the very leader who had contemplated the move.
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The DMK's strategy has left the BJP with no choice but to focus on its core strengths to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu: through a mix of Hindutva slogans, relentless groundwork in coordination with the AIADMK, and the deployment of Central investigative agencies aimed at hampering the DMK and curtailing its finances.
The 2026 Assembly election is crucial for all political parties in the State. For Palaniswami, who lost the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections as well as the 2021 Assembly election, this is the last chance to prove that he can lead the AIADMK to victory. If not, the party will certainly cast him aside. For Vijay, this is a litmus test. A poor show could impact his film career as well. For the DMK, it will be a referendum on Stalin's first term as Chief Minister. And for the BJP, this election will decide if the Modi-Shah combine can establish the BJP as a formidable force in Tamil Nadu.