Asia Comes to Grips With the New US Tariff Landscape
After six months of maximum uncertainty where tariff rates on China at one point hit a stratospheric 145% and some smaller Asian exporters faced levied of around 50%, Trump's latest trade deals finally offered some clarity.
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EU strikes trade deal with US but final decision still to be made on alcohol
The United States and European Union have agreed a trade deal in which a 15% tariff is set to be placed on most EU exports entering the US market, though a final decision is yet to be made on alcohol. Yesterday (27 July), the EU Commission announced that besides the 15% levy, the US and EU had also agreed on "zero-for-zero tariffs" on several goods, including "certain agricultural products". When asked in a press conference following the deal whether the zero-for-zero agreement included alcohol, spirits and wine, president of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen said "no decision' had been made yet. She added that the topic was something that would be discussed in the 'next days". In the Commission's statement, the president added that the deal creates "more predictability for our businesses". She added: "We are ensuring immediate tariff relief. This will have a clear impact on the bottom lines of our companies. And with this deal, we are securing access to our largest export market. At the same time, we will give better access for American products in our market. "This will benefit European consumers and make our businesses more competitive. This deal provides a framework from which we will further reduce tariffs on more products, address non-tariff barriers, and cooperate on economic security." Secretary general of The Brewers of Europe, Julia Leferman said that the United States is the "second most significant export market for European breweries, accounting for over a quarter of total European beer exports." She added: 'As it emerges that no decision has yet been taken on the treatment of alcoholic beverages and negotiations continue on the list of products - including agri-food, that could be covered by a zero-for-zero arrangement - The Brewers of Europe calls on EU and US negotiators to put beer on this list and also remove beer from the aluminium derivatives tariffs set by the US." Reflecting on the news, president of the European wine trade body Comité Européen des Entreprises Vins (CEEV) Marzia Varvaglione said: "We are still awaiting the full details of the agreement reached today and are watching with great anticipation the outcome of the upcoming negotiations regarding the list of products that will be included under the zero-for-zero tariff arrangement, among them some agricultural products' "We truly believe the trade of wine is of great benefit for both EU and U.S. companies, and it must be included in the zero-for-zero tariff arrangement. "And it's not just the EU side saying this - our U.S. counterparts have also been strong advocates for protecting this vital exchange" Varvaglione added. Meanwhile, secretary general of CEEV, Ignacio Sánchez Recarte said that it is "encouraging to know that we may be just days away from putting an end to the trade uncertainty that has weighed on our sector in recent months." He added: 'However, the consequences of failing to include wine in the final zero-for-zero deal would be severe. "We therefore call on negotiators to take decisive action: Include wine in the zero-for-zero agreement and safeguard a trade that has always delivered value, growth, and cooperation," Recarte said. President and CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council (DISCUS), Chris Swonger said the deal was "great news for US and EU relations, and we greatly appreciate President Trump's leadership." He added: 'We are optimistic that in the days ahead this positive meeting and agreement will lead to a return to zero-for-zero tariffs for US and EU spirits products". Just Drinks has also contacted spiritsEurope and FoodDrinkEurope for comment. "EU strikes trade deal with US but final decision still to be made on alcohol" was originally created and published by Just Drinks, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Weather Shocks vs. Oversupply: Are You Trading SRW Wheat's Next Big Move?
The 2025/26 marketing year, June 01 to May 31, for Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat shows a mixed supply and demand picture, with harvest occurring from late May to August, primarily in the U.S. South, Great Lakes, and Atlantic regions. The USDA's Economic Research Service projects that U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 will be the highest since 2019/20, up 10% from 2024/25, driven by larger beginning stocks. U.S. wheat exports are projected to be down by 20 million bushels, constrained by larger projected exports from competitors like the EU, Argentina, and Russia. Demand remains steady but faces headwinds from global competition, as SRW is the world's cheapest wheat, with funds holding net short positions since 2022. This competitive pricing stems from robust U.S. production and improved moisture conditions as crops enter the heading phase, which could keep prices subdued. Speculators should note the potential for volatility tied to inter-market spreads with other grains, while hedgers must monitor export demand and global stock levels to manage risk effectively. The latest crop progress report indicates that the U.S. winter wheat harvest is 63% complete, slightly behind the 5-year average. Spring wheat is 78% headed, exceeding the average by 3%. The good to excellent condition rating for spring wheat increased by 4% to 54%, with notable improvements in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. This abundance, especially in SRW, could flood the market and cause depressed prices. More News from Barchart Warren Buffett Warns Inflation Turns Business Into 'The Upside-Down World of Alice in Wonderland' But Weeds Out 'Bad Businesses' Why GOOGL Stock May Be the Market's Next Big Winner Alphabet Posts Lower Free Cash Flow and FCF Margins - Is GOOGL Stock Overvalued? Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! A positive event supporting higher prices is continuing weather disruptions in regions like Southern Russia, Ukraine, or Northern Europe, where dryness and frost risks persist. Such events could tighten global supply, boosting SRW demand as a cost-competitive alternative. The wheat market outlook remains cautious for the upcoming season, with prices likely to stay range-bound to lower unless significant weather shocks disrupt supply. Speculators might find opportunities in short-term weather-driven rallies. At the same time, hedgers may consider locking in prices during potential spikes, given the bearish bias from ample U.S. stocks and global competition. Technical Picture Source: Barchart Since the recent peak in February 2025, the 50 simple moving average (SMA) has contained the short-lived price rallies. Price action appears to be trading sideways, but the SMA is still sloping down. The market will be keeping an eye on the 543'6 low from May. The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Source: CME Group Exchange The managed money traders' COT report shows aggressive selling(red lines) and remaining net short (yellow line) since July 2022. They hold 31% of open short positions, a slight increase from three months ago. Source: Barchart The continuous weekly nearest contract wheat chart shows the price action since managed money traders went net short in 2022 and have remained with that sentiment. The wheat market has been holding support at the 506'0 to 514'0 level. However, the rallies from these levels appear weaker with each attempt failing to get any traction or sentiment change from the trend-following managed money traders. Seasonal Pattern Source: Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI) MRCI seasonal research often finds patterns tied to the expiration or delivery of a futures contract. The upcoming seasonal window (yellow box) correlates to the September wheat contract's First Notice Day (FND), as prices historically have declined into this period. The reasons may be the convergence of the futures to spot prices at expiration, storage, and carry cost, as the premium may erode as expiration approaches, or just the new supply coming to the latest market year that started in June. With the technical picture showing weak levels off of the May lows and the bearish sentiment remaining in the managed money traders' camp, the upcoming seasonal sell may be the catalyst to lower prices. Source: MRCI MRCI research has found that over the past 15 years, the December wheat contract has closed lower on approximately September 01 than on August 05 for 13 years, with an 87% occurrence rate. In addition, three of the years never had a daily closing drawdown. Based on hypothetical testing, the average net profit has been 24 cents or $1,204 per standard-sized 5,000 bushel wheat contract. As a crucial reminder, while seasonal patterns can provide valuable insights, they should not be the basis for trading decisions. Traders must consider various technical and fundamental indicators, risk management strategies, and market conditions to make informed and balanced trading decisions. Assets to Trade the Wheat Market Wheat futures are traded on the CME Group Exchange: The standard-size contract (ZW) and the mini-size contract (XW). Options on the wheat futures at the CME Group Exchange are also available. Equity traders may find that the exchange-traded fund (ETF) (WEAT) offers opportunities in their equity accounts without opening futures trading accounts. In Closing….. The 2025/26 marketing year for Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat, spanning June 01 to May 31, presents a complex supply and demand landscape for speculators and hedgers. Harvested from late May to August across the U.S. South, Great Lakes, and Atlantic regions, SRW faces bearish pressures from a projected 10% increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks, the highest since 2019/20, driven by robust production and larger beginning stocks, according to the USDA. Global competition from the EU, Argentina, and Russia caps U.S. exports, down 20 million bushels. At the same time, SRW's position as the world's cheapest wheat fuels record net short positions by managed money traders since 2022. Improved crop conditions, with 54% of spring wheat rated good-to-excellent and the U.S. winter wheat harvest 63% complete, signal an ample supply that could depress prices further. However, weather disruptions in Southern Russia, Ukraine, or Northern Europe could tighten global supply, potentially lifting SRW demand and prices. The market's technical picture underscores bearish sentiment, with prices trading sideways below a declining 50 SMA and weak rallies off the 506'0–514'0 support. Seasonal patterns add another layer, with Moore Research Center (MRCI) data indicating an 87% chance of December wheat futures closing lower by September 01 compared to August 05, possibly driven by annual futures-to-spot convergence, storage costs, and new supply. The Commitment of Traders report confirms managed money traders' aggressive selling, holding 31% of open short positions, reinforcing a bearish outlook. Speculators can target short-term weather-driven rallies, while hedgers should lock prices during potential spikes to manage downside risk. The challenge is clear: Will you act on the bearish seasonal window and technical weakness, or wait for a weather shock to shift sentiment? Use assets like CME wheat futures (ZW, XW), options, or the WEAT ETF to position strategically, but don't rely solely on seasonal patterns—integrate technicals, fundamentals, and risk management to navigate this volatile market. On the date of publication, Don Dawson did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
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Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN) to Rebrand as Qfin Holdings
We recently compiled a list of Qifu Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: QFIN) stands fifth on our list and is currently undergoing a rebranding process. Qifu Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:QFIN), a leading AI-powered Credit-Tech platform in China, is undergoing a major transformation. The company recently announced it will rebrand as Qfin Holdings, Inc., following shareholder approval in June 2025, marking a strategic shift alongside new leadership appointments and updated governance policies. Recognized as a 'Most Honored Company' in the 2025 Extel Asia Best Managed Teams rankings, the business has earned top accolades for its CEO, CFO, and investor relations team, reflecting its excellence in corporate transparency and execution. Qifu Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:QFIN) is doubling down on its 'AI + Finance' strategy, with innovations aimed at revolutionizing digital lending and risk assessment. A major highlight is TRIDENT, its proprietary Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM), designed to enhance fraud detection, streamline customer service, and optimize user experience using multimodal data. A lab technician inspecting a credit card processor chip. The corporation is also expanding through embedded finance channels, with nearly half of the new users in Q1 2025 acquired via APIs. At the same time, it continues to scale its capital-light business model, providing more efficient and lower-risk loan facilitation. With ongoing investment in AI research and partnerships with academic institutions, Qifu Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:QFIN) is cementing its position as a pioneer in China's evolving fintech landscape. While we acknowledge the potential of QFIN as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money. Disclosure: None. Sign in to access your portfolio
