Can Anyone Beat Scottie Scheffler At Oakmont?

Forbes

a day ago

The best golfers in the world begin play in the 125th U.S. Open Championship tomorrow at Oakmont Country Club with two major challenges facing them. The first is a brute of a golf course which is about to host its tenth U.S. Open Championship, and that many describe as the toughest test in all of championship golf. Meanwhile, the second is much more unassuming, but may be equally as challenging for players to overcome, and that is the world's number one player, Scottie Scheffler.
DUBLIN, OHIO - JUNE 09: Scottie Scheffler of the United States celebrates after making par on the ... More 18th green to win the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday at Muirfield Village Golf Club on June 09, 2024 in Dublin, Ohio. (Photo by)
Scheffler's brilliance has been on full display lately, having won three of his last four starts, all of which by a wide margin. Heading into the U.S. Open this week, the three-time major champions game appears to be peaking at just the right time, which should strike fear in the competition.
Like many great players before him, Scheffler's game travels incredible well to various styles of golf courses. Unlike many of those courses, Oakmont Country Club offers a set of very unique challenges for the world's best players, it just so happens that these challenges fit Scheffler's game very well.
Because of his recent form and course fit, he heads to the U.S. Open as the heaviest betting favorite in the championship since Tiger Woods in 2009. Currently, DraftKings has Scheffler at +275, with Bryson DeChambeau being the closest favorite at +750, a wider gap than last year when he entered the U.S. Open at Pinehurst at +325. When asked about being the favorite this week, he stated 'I don't pay attention to the favorite stuff or anything like that. Starting Thursday morning we're at even par and it's up to me to go out there and play against the golf course and see what I can do.' A very level headed comment from someone who is chasing history.
This week, Scheffler is looking to do what only 5 players in history have done, win the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship in the same season. With Brooks Koepka being the last to do it in 2018, the list features the greats of the game - Woods, Nicklaus, Hogan and Sarazen are the others that Scheffler hopes to join this week.
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - MAY 17: Scottie Scheffler of The United States plays his thir shot on his ... More first hole, the par 5, 10th hole during the second round of the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club on May 17, 2024 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by)
It just so happens that this week's championship at Oakmont is on a course that experts believe suits his game about as perfectly as a course setup can. Long rough is a hallmark of the U.S. Open and getting it in play off the tee is paramount to success at Oakmont. During the 2025 season, Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee. This measures a golfer's performance with their tee shots on par 4 and par 5 holes and compares them to the average PGA Tour players performance on these holes.
While not considered one of the longest players in the world, he still has plenty of distance, averaging 303.3 yards off the tee this season. The PGA Tour has a statistic called total driving, which measures a players distance and accuracy. Scheffler is 11th in this statistic, so however you measure it, he is an elite driver of the golf ball, which is needed for success this week at Oakmont.
Approach play will also be needed for success as players will need to hit approach shots to the proper quadrants of Oakmont's treacherous greens in order to give themselves chances to make birdie and oftentimes, to secure a par. In this area, Scheffler is undoubtedly the world's best iron player and leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach again this year. He is sixth in greens in regulation percentage and second in proximity to the hole during the 2025 season.
Two weeks ago at the Memorial, Jordan Spieth was asked about Scheffler's iron play and he commented, 'he's maybe the best there's ever been as far as club face control. So his consistency is ridiculous. And then that just leads to his distance control being phenomenal.' Scheffler even excels at approach shot from long distances, ranking 11th in approach shots over 200 yards, which will be needed this week as players lay back off the tee to find fairways.
If Scheffler happens to have an off day at Oakmont and misses more greens than normal, he happens to be ranked second on the PGA Tour in scrambling, which is a players ability to make par when they miss a green in regulation. More importantly, he ranks fifth in scrambling from the rough, which will be vital this week as the rough is over five inches in length in places.
In the past, putting would be considered a major issue for Scheffler, but this season he has improved his putting dramatically and is ranked 25th on the PGA Tour in putting. This is a major breakthrough for the best ball striker in the world who has been slowed by a balky putter at times in the last few seasons. On weeks where he is putting even average, Scheffler has proven to be tough to beat.
AUGUSTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 10: Scottie Scheffler of the United States lines up a putt on the 18th ... More green during the first round of the 2025 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 10, 2025 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by)
All of these statistics have made Scheffler the best player in the world over the last three years, but there are two statistics that may be even more important this week. One of which is bogey avoidance. Whoever wins this championship will have had to avoid bogeys better than the majority of the field on a very difficult golf course. Wanna know who leads the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance in 2025? You guessed it, Scottie Scheffler. For the season, he has only made bogey or worse on 10% of the holes he has played. Bogeys are inevitable at Oakmont, but limiting them will be one of the keys to success.
Scottie Scheffler excels at all the physical aspects of the game, but it is his mental abilities that make him stand apart from the rest of the players in golf currently. The PGA Tour tracks a statistic called 'bounce back," this is the percentage of time a player makes birdie or better the hole after making a bogey or worse.
To this point in the season, Scheffler makes birdie or better on 25.90% of his holes played. What is astonishing is that after making a bogey or worse, he bounces back and makes birdie 35.80% of the time, almost a 10% higher rate than his normal birdie percentage. This goes to show you just how tough minded Scheffler is when he has a bad hole. The tour average is 20.73% for bounce back, so Scheffler is coming back from a bad hole at a 15% higher rate than the average player on tour, easily the best percentage in professional golf. In fact, other statistics of his also improve after a bogey. He is hitting 64.5% of the fairways on the season, but after a bogey that percentage jumps to 73.5%. For the year he is averaging 70.25% greens in regulation, but after a bogey that jumps up to 76.5%. This ability to bear down when needed sets him apart and is a tell tale sign of possible success this week as bogeys are inevitable.
This ability to bounce back after a bad hole isn't lost on Scheffler. After the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, where he bounced back at a 60% clip and played the holes after a bogey at -7, he said, 'I'm going to make plenty of mistakes over a 72-hole tournament, but it's more important for me not to let the mistakes bug me and to continue to bounce back and keep fighting out there. I mean I feel like my attitude has gotten better over the years, and I feel like that's why that statistic would be, I guess, one of my stronger ones.'
Other players have also caught on to how Scheffler strategizes and gets around a golf course. Earlier this year, Rory McIlroy said, 'he plays the right shot at the right time, over and over and over again.' McIlroy is on record as stating that he has been trying to play more like Scheffler, being more patient and avoiding compounding errors.
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - MAY 15: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland and Scottie Scheffler of the ... More United States talk as they walk the 7th fairway during the first round of the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Country Club on May 15, 2025 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by)
To add to all the statistical evidence, Scheffler has also done well in the U.S. Open the last 4 years. Prior to last years T41 finish at Pinehurst, he has finished third, T2 and T7 the three years prior. At Oakmont, the toughest course in the U.S. Open rotation, his strengths and experience should be magnified, leading many to believe this is his year.
If you are looking for reasons to bet against Scheffler this week, there are some out there. For starters, he has a career win percentage on the PGA Tour of 22.2% or 16 out of 72 tournament starts. So by using this statistic, the field has about an 80% chance of winning this championship.
There is also the fact that a world number one ranked player has not won the United States Open since 2008, when Tiger Woods held off Rocco Mediate in the famous playoff at Torrey Pines. So Scheffler is looking to end this 17 year drought for world number one players this week.
Scottie Scheffler may win this week at Oakmont or he may not, as of the publication of this article, the betting public believes he will, as more money has been bet on him to win than the rest of the field combined. One thing is for certain, whether he wins or not this week, Scottie Scheffler seems to be here to stay and he is hungry to keep stacking victories.