Top White House economist: I believe jobs numbers, but agency needs fixes
Why it matters: President Trump ordered the the firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner on Friday after alleging — without evidence — that disappointing jobs numbers were "rigged."
The bureau later confirmed commissioner Erika McEntarfer was terminated, with her deputy William Wiatrowski stepping in as acting commissioner.
Catch up quick: The July jobs report, released earlier on Friday, showed just 73,000 jobs added last month.
The BLS also announced massive revisions that showed employment was a combined 258,000 lower than previously thought.
It was the second-largest two-month downward revision on record, behind only the pandemic.
What they're saying: "There's been very little attempt to actually fix this problem and come up with creative solutions to make the data more reliable," says Miran.
"It is absolutely time for fresh eyes on this to try and come up with solutions to improve the reliability of the data and get those revision levels down."
Miran said the agency should try to incentivize faster responses or delay the data publications by a week or two, if it means smaller revisions down the line.
Catch up quick: "In my opinion, today's Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad," Trump posted on Truth Social.
Trump accused the agency of boosting jobs figures to support his opponent's presidential candidacy.
Reality check: The BLS, a nonpolitical agency housed within the Labor Department, has faced plummeting response rates to the surveys that comprise the report.
It has scaled back some of its data collection — the Consumer Price Index report, for instance — due in part to proposed budget cuts.
"Economic data are always noisy and this has always been a problem that has plagued economic research and economists — it's one that we make the best of," Miran said.
Asked if he believes the numbers released by the BLS, Miran said "I think if the BLS tells me that there were 14,000 jobs created [in June], I don't have a competing survey that tells me otherwise."
Between the lines: Miran said that revisions were largely a result of statistical artifacts — namely adjustments to account for seasonal quirks.
He said that Trump's immigration policies would "inevitably show up in one way or another in the labor market data. I think that some of what we saw is also due to that."
"If we're swapping out foreign-born job holders for American-born job holders, I think that's a win," Miran said.
What to watch: Mainstream economists say the economy and labor market will likely slow further this year.
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