
This Week in Mets: New York should care about every upgrade at trade deadline
— 'The Mountain in the Sea,' Ray Nayler
After a frustrating loss Saturday, Brandon Nimmo was asked about whether the New York Mets' 'sense of urgency' had been heightened over the last month. Nimmo provided the usual answer to that question — that there is always a sense of urgency — before adding some crucial evidence.
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'The guys that have been here and the guys that were here last year know we made the playoffs by one game,' Nimmo said. 'So one game can decide whether we get into the playoffs or we don't. It doesn't mean we're not going to lose. But every day there is urgency to try to win.'
Indeed, in the wild-card era, no franchise knows the importance of one single game quite like the Mets. Six times in the last 27 seasons, whether the Mets qualified for the postseason came down to just one game (1998, 1999, 2007, 2008, 2016 and 2024). In two other seasons (2000 and 2022), the Mets missed out on winning the division by one game. So in 30 percent of their seasons over more than a quarter century, one out of 162 has meant a whole hell of a lot to the Mets.
And that's something that should weigh on David Stearns' mind between now and July 31.
It can be disarming and maybe even a little disconcerting to see the projected WAR through the end of the season on our most recent Trade Deadline Big Board. No player was projected to be worth as many as two wins the rest of the way. The best player you can get at this deadline is likely to make a difference of only a game or two.
And yet, that game or two might mean a lot, especially in the National League, where the stratified playoff system leads to a cascading series of races. First, there's the most important one: merely qualifying for the postseason. The Mets are in a good position, though not nearly as sturdy as it appeared a month ago. Sunday's win pushed New York four games clear of the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants, who sit tied for seventh in the NL. The Mets' playoff odds are 84.3 percent — very good but not guaranteed. (The 2021 San Diego Padres were at 93.2 percent on this date; they did not play in October.)
Second, there's the race for the division, where the Mets sit a half game behind the Philadelphia Phillies. Their odds for winning the division are 43.6 percent. Though winning the National League East has not led to postseason success yet under the new format, it still remains the preferred path. (Yes, NL division winners are 1-8 in their opening series in the three years of the revised format, with last year's Los Angeles Dodgers the lone exception. However, AL division winners are 7-2 in their opening series, so the NL's issues appear fluky.)
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Back in the spring, Stearns emphasized the importance of winning the division and getting a first-round bye.
'I think the first-round bye is a big deal,' he said. 'I know it hasn't always proven that way in this new playoff format. I think over time, we get into a 10-, 15-year stretch of this, and we will see that being a big deal.'
And that gets to the next important postseason race in the NL: for a first-round bye. In the three seasons of the revised format, the Dodgers have been the No. 1 seed, the East winner No. 2 and the Central winner No. 3, relegated to a Wild Card Series. Well, right now, the Central hosts the top two teams in the NL in the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers. Even if the Mets win the division, the bye is far from guaranteed. And playing in the Wild Card Series could be critically taxing to a pitching staff such as New York's. (The Mets have just an 18.4 percent chance of earning a bye right now.)
Finally, there's the race for home-field advantage. Teams don't always go all out for the No. 1 seed (in part because the weakness of the NL Central has often made the Division Series opponent for the NL's No. 1 seed tougher on paper). But the Mets should want home-field advantage as much as ever: They play significantly better at home than on the road. They've played exactly 50 games at home and on the road this season, and they're 12 games better at Citi Field. Put another way, New York plays at a 110-win pace in Queens and a 71-win pace everywhere else.
And getting the No. 1 seed would mean not having to beat both other division winners in the NL postseason, which would appear a stouter task in 2025 than in any of the last three years.
Every day, there is urgency to win, and every day there should be urgency to get better — even for just one game.
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The Mets avoided a sweep by Cincinnati with a win in their last at-bat Sunday. New York is 56-44 and a half game behind the Phillies for first place in the National League East.
The Los Angeles Angels took two of three in Philadelphia to remain on the periphery of the American League wild-card race. They're 49-50 and four games back of the final playoff spot.
The Giants were swept in Toronto and have lost five straight. San Francisco has dropped to 52-48, six games out in the National League West and 2 1/2 behind the final playoff spot.
vs. Los Angeles (AL)
RHP Kodai Senga (7-3, 1.39 ERA) vs. LHP Tyler Anderson (2-6, 4.34 ERA)
RHP Frankie Montas (2-1, 5.03) vs. RHP Kyle Hendricks (5-6, 4.88)
LHP Sean Manaea (0-1, 2.45) vs. RHP Carson Fulmer (0-0, 7.11)
at San Francisco
RHP Clay Holmes (8-5, 3.48) vs. RHP Logan Webb (9-7, 3.08)
LHP David Peterson (6-4, 2.90) vs. LHP Robbie Ray (9-4, 2.92)
RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Hayden Birdsong (4-3, 4.11)
Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL
• Though Pete Alonso didn't start Sunday's game because of a right hand contusion, he did enter in the seventh inning to continue his consecutive games streak. Alonso is expected to start Monday.
• Starling Marte won't be back as quickly as initially hoped. He's taken batting practice, though, and should return by the end of July.
• Jesse Winker will be shut down about another week before he starts baseball activities, likely pushing a return into August.
• José Butto is on a minor-league rehab assignment and should return to the bullpen this week.
• Dedniel Núñez did have Tommy John surgery and is out this season and likely all of next.
• Max Kranick will go under the knife this month for elbow surgery. It will be either flexor repair surgery or Tommy John surgery. Either knocks him out for this season, but Tommy John surgery will keep him out all of next year as well.
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Triple A: Syracuse vs. Omaha (Kansas City)
Double A: Binghamton at Reading (Philadelphia)
High A: Brooklyn at Greensboro (Pittsburgh)
Single A: St. Lucie vs. Daytona (Cincinnati)
• Francisco Alvarez will be back Monday
• Can the Mets fix their bullpen at the trade deadline?
• Storylines to watch early in the second half, focused on the deadline
• Why did it take Francisco Lindor so long to make the All-Star Game with the Mets?
• On David Wright's 'unbreakable bond' with Mets fans
• David Wright's five best moments with the Mets
• Keith Law's draft report card for the NL East
Ray Nayler's science-fiction novel about contact with a hyperintelligent species of octopus didn't quite do it for me, although not for the reasons I expected. I sometimes dismiss sci-fi works because they focus too much on action rather than on world-building or developing a consistent thesis. 'The Mountain in the Sea' is excellent at building a world and hammering a thesis on consciousness. And as I was getting to the end of it, I found myself thinking, 'You know, could have used just a little more action.'
David Wright is the Mets' franchise leader in sacrifice flies with 65 in his career. However, the single-season major-league record for sac flies (19) is held by a different person with their jersey retired in Queens. Who is it?
(I'll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)

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