Democratic memo: The party's redistricting problem goes much deeper
'It turns out that the road to power is not necessarily through Pennsylvania,' said Paul Begala, a strategist who worked for both the Clinton and Obama campaigns. 'It runs through Lansing and Austin and Albany and Frankfurt [and] Columbus.'
Begala said in an interview that Democrats' current deficit in state legislatures is a result of the party's constant search for a messiah like Clinton or Obama to lead them to victory. He said that search has pushed the party to misallocate the broad resources it has at play — investing in hard-to-win high-profile races rather than thinking long-term about building power.
'I've watched this party pour $110 million into Jaime Harrison's campaign against Lindsey Graham. That was a fool's errand,' Begala said. 'How many Michigan Senate seats could we have picked up for that?'
The DLCC's memo proposed a year-by-year plan to increase Democratic seats, beginning with Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin in 2026. Four-year state senate terms beginning in 2027 are key, the memo points out, as are state house and assembly races in 2028, 2029 and 2030.
Democrats have room to make gains in Texas, Mississippi and Oklahoma over the next five years, Begala says. North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania are also key targets for Democrats, though they each come with hurdles, like a hostile state supreme court in North Carolina.
The memo emphasized 'anchoring' — or starting with downballot races and then moving to statewide and federal races — was part of Democrats' successful strategy to flip Colorado from red to blue over the last 25 years (though the state also benefitted from a major demographic shift that benefited Democrats too). The DLCC and Begala say it's key to keep Democrats afloat in upcoming redistricting battles.
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