Taiwan Dollar Forwards Set to Retreat as Tariff Concerns Grow
Taiwan dollar non-deliverable forward points, financial instruments used to hedge against currency risks, slid Wednesday on concern the island is running out of time to reach a US trade deal before the Aug. 1 deadline, and also due to broad US dollar strength. The contracts had rallied earlier this month as global funds used them to hedge their purchases of Taiwan stocks.
Taiwan officials are racing to reach an agreement before Friday's target date when the 32% reciprocal tariff on the island's exports will come into effect. Taiwan's main export competitors are leaving it behind, with Japan securing a 15% tariff agreement, and South Korea said to have reached a deal for a similar rate.
One-month US dollar-Taiwan dollar NDF points dropped by 7 pips to an 70-point discount on Wednesday, while their three-month equivalents fell 9.8 pips to a 355-point discount. Both had risen to the highest levels since April on Tuesday
The hedging activities by foreign investors purchasing Taiwanese securities are having a significant impact on Taiwan's NDFs, said Chandresh Jain, a rates and currency strategist for emerging Asia at BNP Paribas SA in Singapore. There are a number of factors adding volatility to the Taiwan dollar, including the trade talks between Taiwan and the US, he said.
The forward points had jumped earlier this month as overseas investors bought them to hedge their equity investments. Global funds have purchased more than NT$200 billion ($6.7 billion) of Taiwan's shares in July, more than double the NT$93.4 billion they bought the month before, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Those purchases may be scaled back as concerns about the trade talks grow, especially over US President Donald Trump's threat to put specific tariffs on sectors such as semiconductors.
'Uncertainty over the nature of Taiwan's trade agreement with the US, particularly whether semiconductor sector tariffs will be exempt, poses a key risk,' said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. 'Any disappointment on the deal could trigger an unwinding of equity inflows.'
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