Norges Bank Keeps Key Rate Unchanged But Hints at Easing Later This Year
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected Norges Bank to remain on hold at 4.25%.
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What economists are saying about inflation now
The hotter-than-expected July PPI print has some worried about how tariffs will impact inflation and what it ultimately means for the Federal Reserve and interest rates. Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Allie Canal shares what some economists are saying about inflation now. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts. Consumer sentiment fell for the first time since April last month as inflation expectations climbed. Anxiety around the impact of tariffs is weighing on the minds of consumers, but is inflation being driven by more than just tariffs? Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal live at the Nasdaq with more. Hi Allie. Hi Julie. And that's a question that's hard to say. Heading into this week, the focus was on core goods and the potential tariff impact on everything from apparel to furniture. But instead of a sharp jump in goods, we saw services inflation firm. That showed up in both the CPI and PPI reports earlier this week. The producer price index, uh, that surged to a three-year high signaling that businesses are absorbing much of the tariff burden. So the concern now is those higher costs could soon be passed on to consumers making the services side of the economy more expensive, just as the full tariff impact on goods is still set to play out. Now, markets may be mostly shrugging this off, still trading at those record highs, but economists are warning that the tariff effects haven't fully landed. Raymond James chief economist, Eugenio Aleman, he said in a note this week, quote, the full impact of tariffs is expected to materialize in next month's data, potentially pushing good prices higher. This complicates the Fed's September decision. And complicate is the key word here, Julie, especially after this morning's stable retail sales report. So this is really the chatter on Wall Street right now. And here's a bit more of what economists told us this week. more concerned about its impact on future CPI prints. I think it's telling you that the price effects are starting to work its way throughout the supply chain. Yeah, maybe maybe the July CPI print wasn't that strong, but come August, September, we might start to see firmer prints, and that puts the Fed in a tough spot. The good news here, as you say, is the tariff impulse into inflation wasn't as high as anticipated this month. The bad news, as you pointed out, is is that, um, services inflation was pretty soft in in prior months, and it did give the impression to many that, hey, maybe we could ignore tariff inflation because services weakness will offset it. But now I think a lot of that's reversed. These are broad-based inflationary pressures that we're seeing just now. I I I see more reason for rates to be rising in order to not let inflation, uh, get away from us. Inflation is the risk that's on our doorstep, much more so than the labor market. Uh, the Fed officials know that. And we do know that markets are still pricing in with near 100% certainty that the Fed cuts interest rates in September. Of course, Jackson Hole next week is going to give us a lot of clues into the thinking of the Fed with Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, set to speak. But even with that September rate cut priced in by markets, you know, investors still think we are going to see an additional one to two rate cuts for from there to really end 2025 with about three cuts in total, and then more rate cuts are expected in 2026. So we're seeing that play out a bit in in the bond market. Long-term yields, like the 30-year yield, for example, is ticking higher today. But all of this, a big question mark is we continue to wade through this data with more prints and reports expected in the weeks and months ahead, Julie.
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Could Silver Be Clients' Golden Ticket?
Apparently, all that glitters is not gold. Gold boomed this year as a safe haven from a lackluster bond market and a stock market shaken by Liberation Day jitters. But quietly, silver was also gaining momentum, with prices now up roughly 30% this year versus gold's 28% rise. Silver's role as an inflation hedge and its industrial uses, combined with a supply deficit, have created strong tailwinds for the precious metal. Invest in Gold Thor Metals Group: Best Overall Gold IRA American Hartford Gold: #1 Precious Metals Dealer in the Nation Priority Gold: Up to $15k in Free Silver + Zero Account Fees on Qualifying Purchase 'Gold sometimes steals the spotlight as an inflation hedge, especially given the tariffs, but silver has been benefiting from that, too, as a store of value,' said Nate Miller, vice president of product development at Amplify. READ ALSO: VOO Becomes First ETF to Top $700 Billion in Assets and Advisors May Take the Next Exit if NJ Passes New Contractor Rule I've Got One More Silver Dollar Unlike gold, which is primarily an investment or jewelry component, silver has broad industrial applications driving demand. 'Silver is second to oil when it comes to industrial application,' Miller told Advisor Upside. 'Solar panels are the most common use, but it's in smartphones, AI, semiconductors, data centers, so there's a structural tailwind from all that.' Supply constraints are also in play. HSBC projects a deficit of 206 million ounces this year, up from 167 million in 2024. That combination has powered strong returns from silver ETFs: There are only five silver-focused ETFs trading in the US, and they have $21.5 billion in assets, with the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) accounting for 85% of the total, according to CFRA data. The ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) is the best performing this year at 53%; the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL), an inverse fund, is down almost as much at 45%. The rest — the Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR), the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) and SLV — are all up more than 30%. Separately, funds that track silver mining companies are performing even better, with the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) and the iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF (SLVP) all up roughly 70% or more this year. Silver Lining. Still, silver funds haven't seen the same investor inflows as gold or copper. Silver ETFs have attracted $1.15 billion in 2025 — about 6% of current assets — while gold ETFs and copper funds are up 12% and 17% in flows, respectively, according to CFRA data. Silver's lag may stem from macro and geopolitical factors, with central banks favoring gold to hedge against US Treasuries, said Aniket Ullal, head of ETF research and analytics at CFRA. 'Flows tend to lag performance, so if silver returns continue to be strong in 2H 2025, ETF flows could pick up further,' he told Advisor Upside. 'Price momentum will be sustained if there is demand from sectors like electronics and renewable energy.' This post first appeared on The Daily Upside. To receive financial advisor news, market insights, and practice management essentials, subscribe to our free Advisor Upside newsletter. Sign in to access your portfolio
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an hour ago
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Cliffs Inks Multiyear Steel Pacts with US Automakers in Tariff Aftershock
(Bloomberg) -- Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has signed fixed-price contracts to supply steel to multiple US carmakers for up to three years, an unusually long duration that signals the auto industry is guarding against potential inflationary pressures. The US-Canadian Road Safety Gap Is Getting Wider Festivals and Parades Are Canceled Amid US Immigration Anxiety To Head Off Severe Storm Surges, Nova Scotia Invests in 'Living Shorelines' Five Years After Black Lives Matter, Brussels' Colonial Statues Remain For Homeless Cyclists, Bikes Bring an Escape From the Streets The new two and three-year accords are for industry-standard sheet steel, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the details haven't been publicly disclosed. General Motors Co. is one of the carmakers to agree to a multiyear pact, according to another person familiar with the matter. While it's unclear what prices were agreed to, the duration of the agreements mark a notable change for Cliffs, the biggest supplier of automotive steel in the US, whose previous automotive contracts were usually signed in one-year increments. Shares of the Cleveland-based steelmaker surged as much as 3.9% after the Bloomberg report. The stock traded 1% higher as of 1:17 p.m. in New York. The move is a hedge for both parties. It indicates some automakers are solidifying multiyear prices of key steel input for their cars and trucks amid widespread concern that President Donald Trump's tariffs will stoke inflation. It also shows that Cliffs, which has lost auto market share in recent years, is trying to capitalize on Trump's steel sector duties. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on US imports of foreign steel in March, and then increased the levy to 50% in June. Trump contends tariffs will help protect US jobs and encourage companies to invest more in the country, as well as raise government revenue. But many economists say tariffs will hurt growth as higher prices for goods put a squeeze on household budgets. Trump's broad-reaching tariffs policy — which includes sector-specific and country-level duties — are widely expected to push up vehicle prices by thousands of dollars. Automakers are now taking the chance to lock in a fixed steel price as tariff costs risk sapping demand for new cars. While some companies have indicated they may raise consumer prices in the second half of the year, they are also constrained by the fear of losing market share to competitors with a bigger domestic footprint and lower costs. It wasn't immediately clear which carmakers entered into the longer-term supply agreements. Cliffs' position makes it one of the most important suppliers to GM, Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis NV. A Cleveland-Cliffs spokeswoman declined to comment. GM had no immediate comment. Stellantis didn't respond to a request for comment. Ford declined to comment. Detroit automakers are particularly flummoxed that the Trump administration has negotiated trade deals with Japan, South Korea, and the European Union without hammering out accords with neighboring Canada and Mexico, saying the agreements put them at a disadvantage to foreign competitors. US automakers face billions of dollars in tariff exposure from Trump's duties on imported cars and parts as well as those on steel, aluminum and other goods. Ford has said Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum are impacting the company, namely through price increases from its suppliers that purchase the raw materials. It expects a net $2 billion hit from tariffs this year. Canada is the biggest foreign supplier of steel to the US, accounting for about 23% of American imports in 2024, according to US government data. --With assistance from Keith Naughton. (Adds shaeres in fourth paragraph.) Americans Are Getting Priced Out of Homeownership at Record Rates What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy Bessent on Tariffs, Deficits and Embracing Trump's Economic Plan Dubai's Housing Boom Is Stoking Fears of Another Crash Twitter's Ex-CEO Is Moving Past His Elon Musk Drama and Starting an AI Company ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
