Russia-Ukraine peace prospects: Does South Africa have a role to play?

Al Jazeera

24-04-2025

Pretoria, South Africa – As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in Pretoria, the pro-Russia opposition condemned the visit while protesters gathered outside government buildings with a banner reading, 'Shame on you, Ramaphosa and Zelenskyy.'
Zelenskyy cut short his first state visit to South Africa on Thursday, saying he would 'return to Ukraine immediately' after overnight Russian attacks killed at least 12 people in Kyiv.
Since February 2022, Ukraine has been fending off a military onslaught by Moscow, aided by arms and support from allies in Europe and the United States.
Pretoria has remained neutral, calling for dialogue between both sides.
According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, an estimated 12,910 civilians have been killed in Ukraine since the war started.
But South Africa's main opposition political party, the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party of former President Jacob Zuma, has taken aim squarely at Ukraine, blaming it for the current crisis.
'The MK Party strongly condemns Mr Ramaphosa's misguided decision to extend an invitation to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a figure widely discredited among progressive and nonaligned nations,' Floyd Shivambu, the secretary-general of the MK said earlier this month when the visit was announced.
Zelenskyy, Shivambu said, was the 'puppet' president of NATO and the West and someone who 'sought to destabilise Eastern Europe and the entire world'.
'We think [Zelenskyy] is the cause of the war between Russia and Ukraine. He provoked Putin,' Magazela Mzobe, a senior aide to Zuma, told Al Jazeera this week, urging protests.
'We regard Russia and President Putin as our friends.'
Zuma previously claimed that NATO countries instigated the 'crisis' in Ukraine in a bid to counteract the BRICS alliance – a group of large developing world economies that includes Russia and South Africa.
South Africa, a historical ally of Russia mainly due to the support the former Soviet Union provided antiapartheid and decolonial movements in Africa, has not condemned Russia or Putin, has abstained from a United Nations resolution doing so and has maintained good ties with Moscow.
Days before meeting with Zelenskyy, Ramaphosa had a telephone call with Putin in which, he said, the two 'committed to working together towards a peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict'.
Hours before meeting Zelenskyy on Thursday, Ramaphosa said he had also spoken with US President Donald Trump and the two agreed that the war in Ukraine needed to stop.
Ukraine faces ongoing pressure to accept stringent US conditions for a peace deal.
On Wednesday, Trump had chastised Zelenskyy for rejecting a Trump administration proposal that would see him cede Crimea to Russia.
After Thursday's talks with Ramaphosa, in which the leaders discussed improving trade as well as ending the war, Zelenskyy said that while Ukraine is open to an unconditional ceasefire, pressure needed to be put on Moscow because it was up to Russia to halt attacks.
'We do not see signs of the US putting strong pressure on Russia as part of its peace push,' he told journalists in Pretoria. Zelenskyy said a new set of proposals was on Trump's desk after talks on Wednesday in London.
When pushed about what he would be willing to compromise on during peace talks, Zelenskyy said he was ready to abide by what was proposed but could not go against the Ukrainian Constitution.
'It is already a big compromise on Ukraine's part to agree to sit down with Russia once a ceasefire is in place,' he said.
If an unconditional ceasefire is enforced, the question remains who would be a guarantor of it. Zelenskyy said it should be a NATO country that is strong enough to withstand Russia. Ramaphosa said South Africa and other African countries stood ready to be a guarantor to ensure peace.
Against the backdrop of Zelenskyy's visit, some questioned why South Africa would want to help broker peace – and what role it could play.
South African Foreign Affairs Minister Ronald Lamola says his country is well placed to mediate between Russia and Ukraine because of its history successfully negotiating an end to apartheid, as well as its role in mediating conflicts across Africa.
'We don't believe funding wars resolves conflict. We believe talks end wars. We can't out-gun our way out of conflict,' his spokesperson Chrispin Phiri told Al Jazeera.
However, political analysts watching developments are not all convinced Pretoria has a role to play or whether its efforts could even help yield the desired peace outcomes.
'The Americans and Russians are discussing. And this discussion is very resistant to the allies of the Americans, the Europeans. They have not been involved. They have been fighting to get around the table,' said political analyst Kingsley Makhubela from the University of Pretoria.
'I don't understand what value South Africa will have if the Europeans who have a direct interest in the resolution of the conflict have no influence around this.'
Makhubela said he was concerned about South Africa possibly being pulled between the interests of the US and the European Union in resolving the Ukraine war.
'We must not play into the hands of either party.'
Makhubela told Al Jazeera he did not believe Pretoria could persuade either the Russians or Ukrainians to commit to peace talks.
'I don't know what South Africa's strengths are to influence this process,' he said.
Regarding the opposition's calls to protest Zelenskyy's visit, Makhubela said they were not extraordinary.
'Internally, you will find groups from the far left and the far right will pronounce why they are against this visit,' he said.
The opposition MK Party, which protested Zelenskyy's visit, also argued South Africa is ill-equipped to effectively negotiate peace between Ukraine and Russia.
However the MK itself – a breakaway faction from the African National Congress (ANC), the majority party in South Africa's coalition government – has faced accusations of receiving Russian money.
Last year, John Steenhuisen – the leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA), the second-largest party in the governing coalition – accused the MK Party of being financially backed due to its links to Putin although he admitted there was no definitive proof. 'I'm certain that money has flown into their accounts from Russia,' he remarked to the Financial Mail newspaper.
The MK denied the allegations of financial connections but has acknowledged the longstanding relationship between Zuma and Putin.
'President Zuma and President Putin have enjoyed a relationship that goes back 40 years. They're friends. But that's not the same as the Russian government supporting the MK Party,' party spokesperson Nhlamulo Ndlela said last year.
The MK Party's affinity for Putin is no secret; it even markets regalia adorned with images of both Zuma and Putin. Zuma has also repeatedly sought medical treatment in Russia during and after his presidency. Additionally, he has faced allegations of corruptly securing a now-defunct nuclear deal with Russia during his time in office.
Nonetheless, the MK Party insisted its protest against Zelenskyy's visit is unrelated to its leader's close ties with Putin.
Despite the pushback to Zelenskyy from some quarters, the Ukrainian Association of South Africa (UAZA), represented by Dzvinka Kachur, was unfazed by the protests and opposition to his visit.
'South Africa, like Ukraine, is a democracy. In Russia, you cannot protest. If you go to the street, you will be arrested or you will disappear,' Kachur said.
The UAZA, representing about 1,000 Ukrainians residing in South Africa, advocates for improved communication between the two nations.
It has previously expressed criticism about the South African government's failure to openly condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, notably by abstaining from a UN vote.
The South African government has maintained its stance of nonalignment and is seeking to facilitate mediation in the conflict with Russia.
Speaking at a joint news conference with Zelenskyy on Thursday, Ramaphosa called upon both Russia and Ukraine to ensure there is a comprehensive ceasefire so negotiations can start.
He said South Africa believed the only path to peace is through diplomacy, inclusive dialogue and a commitment to the principles of the UN Charter.
He also expressed deep concern about the continuing conflict in Ukraine, the loss of civilian lives, damage to critical infrastructure and the deteriorating humanitarian situation.
Kachur told Al Jazeera that any attempt by Ramaphosa to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine would be contingent upon significant actions by Russia.
'A peaceful solution is only possible if Russia's colonial system reforms,' she asserted, meaning Russia should stop taking Ukrainian territory. 'If there is no change inside Russia, there can't be peace.'
In Ramaphosa's phone conversation with Putin before Zelenskyy's visit, the Russian leader articulated his country's position on the necessity of addressing the 'root causes' of the conflict and ensuring Russia's security interests, according to the Kremlin.
'South Africa will continue engaging all interested and affected parties, including the government of Ukraine, in finding a path to peace,' the South African Presidency said after the call.
But as pressure from the Trump administration mounts for an end to the war, the dichotomy between South African government neutrality, the main opposition's staunch support for Russia and the host of international actors wanting a seat at the table leaves uncertainty as to the real role Pretoria could play.