UFC 318 predictions: Full card picks for all 14 fights on prelims, main
It's the swan song for Dustin Poirier's career as he prepares to retire at home for UFC 318.
It will be a spectacle as the Louisianan makes the walk to the octagon one last time alongside rapper Lil Wayne in New Orleans.
That's the main event Saturday night, but there are an insane 14 fights on this card.
The opening bell is at 6:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the main card is available on pay-per-view, starting at 10.
Projections from sportsbooks reveal an equitable division between anticipated decisions and finishes, with seven bouts forecasted to conclude prior to the final bell.
That's really carried by some mismatches during the prelims, with multiple fights lined up as clear squash spots.
Six of the first seven fights have lines -300 or greater.
Here are my predictions for the full UFC 318 card:
UFC 318 predictions
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier
It's a trilogy fight in the lightweight division, and Poirier won the first two fights but still enters Saturday as an underdog at home.
Holloway debuted in the UFC against Poirier in 2012, losing by triangle choke, and then was defeated via decision seven years later when fighting for the interim lightweight championship.
Poirier being 2-0 and then following that up as an underdog is surprising.
Digging into the archives, a piece I wrote in 2021 for Action Network shows a study that I did of all trilogy fights (the third fight in a series between two fighters) to that point.
Underdogs rarely won the third fight, with a 4-17 record at the time (a 19 percent win rate).
Since then, six trilogy fights have happened. Underdogs have rebounded a bit, going 3-3 (now 7-20 overall), although four straight and five of six have gone to decision.
Max Holloway poses on stage during the UFC 318 press conference at Smoothie King Center on July 17, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Zuffa LLC
Decisions in the third bout have moved to 51.85 percent in trilogy fights.
Given that both of these fighters are past their prime, it's a good spot to target the decision market, considering the familiarity and ages of these two.
Don't expect a finish, and if I had to pick a side, I'd absolutely choose Holloway.
Pick: Holloway by decision (+140, Fanatics)
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
If you built a fighter whose job it was solely to frustrate you, you'd create Costa. He's built like a Greek god, had excellent striking at his peak, and has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.
The problem with Costa is his lack of killer instinct; oftentimes, he looks as if he's trying to collect a paycheck rather than get knockout wins.
At this point, Costa looks at his opponents, smiles/sticks his tongue out at them, throws a low left jab to the body, and does not do much else. That's obviously not a winning formula.
Kopylov is not without his problems, either. His lack of defense can be startling, and any time he has been given a step up in competition, he's failed.
But Costa is not a good bet, and I have serious reservations about backing him to win any fights at all.
Pick: Fight doesn't go the distance (+185, Bet365)
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
UFC 318 full card picks for main card and prelims
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier: Holloway by decision (+140, Fanatics)
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov: Fight doesn't go the distance (+185, Bet365)
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez: Fight goes the distance (+165, BetRivers); Rodriguez by decision (+880, Fanatics).
Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull: Pitbull by decision (+300, DraftKings).
Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber: Johnson moneyline (+425, FanDuel).
Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira: Under 2.5 rounds (+175, DraftKings).
Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen: Vettori ATS +3.5 (-170, BetMGM).
Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov: Veretennikov wins in over 1.5 rounds (+180, DraftKings).
Ateba Gautier vs. Robert Valentin: Fight goes the distance (+520, FanDuel).
Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov: Fight starts round 2 (-118, FanDuel).
Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio: Crute by KO/TKO (+400, FanDuel).
Ryan Spann vs. Lukasz Brzeski: Brzeski moneyline (+186, Bet365).
Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey: Over 1.5 rounds (+195, DraftKings).
Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari: Fight goes the distance (-200, BetRivers).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he's showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
5 minutes ago
- Yahoo
How MLB's upcoming deals will change how you watch out-of-market, Sunday night and Wild Card games
When ESPN opted out of its contract with Major League Baseball in February, the network was hoping to get a reworked package at a lower cost while Commissioner Rob Manfred thought the sport could optimize its rights in the short term for Home Run Derby and Wild Card round. In the end, both parties may get what they want. According to people familiar with negotiations, ESPN is nearing a deal to distribute out-of-market games while NBC/Peacock, Netflix, Apple TV are in talks for regular-season packages, the Wild Card round and Home Run Derby. All sides hope to have everything finalized by the end of the regular season next month, three people told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the contracts have not been finalized or announced by either side. The negotiations around the three-year deals is complicated due to the fact that MLB is also trying not to slight two of its other rights holders. MLB receives an average of $729 million from Fox and $470 million from Turner Sports per year under deals which expire after the 2028 season. While ESPN would be losing the playoffs and Home Run Derby, it would be gaining something it considers more valuable — the streaming package of out-of-market games as part of the direct-to-consumer service that launched on Thursday. ESPN would also sell the in-market rights to the five teams whose games are produced by MLB — San Diego, Colorado, Arizona, Cleveland and Minnesota. 'We are engaged. We are having healthy conversations with them. Nothing to announce today, but we're very interested in baseball in general,' ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro said on Tuesday during a presentation about the network's DTC service. ESPN, which has carried MLB games since 1990, opted out of the final three years of a seven-year deal in February. The package averaged $550 million per season and also included the Home Run Derby and Wild Card games. Baseball would be the second league that would have its out-of-market digital package available in the U.S. on ESPN's platform. The NHL moved its package to ESPN in 2021. It would also be a win-win situation for MLB and ESPN. Manfred wrote in a memo to owners after ESPN opted out of its contract: 'While ESPN has stated they would like to continue to have MLB on their platform, particularly in light of the upcoming launch of their DTC product, we do not think its beneficial for us to accept a smaller deal to remain on a shrinking platform. In order to best position MLB to optimize our rights going in to our next deal cycle, we believe it is not prudent to devalue our rights with an existing partner but rather to have our marquee regular season games, Home Run Derby and Wild Card playoff round on a new broadcast and/or streaming platform.' The moves keep ESPN involved in baseball, but at a point where it can benefit while MLB could benefit from other partners in a short-term deal. There is a possibility that ESPN would still air 30 regular-season games, but not Sunday nights. That package of games would go to NBC/Peacock, along with the Wild Card round. NBC, which celebrates its 100th anniversary next year, has a long history with baseball, albeit not much recently. The network carried games from 1939 through 1989. It was part of the short-lived Baseball Network with ABC in 1994 and '95 and then aired playoff games from 1996 through 2000. Peacock had a Sunday streaming package of early-afternoon games in 2022 and '23. The addition of baseball games would give NBC a year-around night of sports on Sunday nights. It has had NFL games on Sunday night since 2006 and will debut an NBA Sunday night slate in February. NBC would likely do Sunday Night Baseball from May through Labor Day weekend. Fox's Saturday nights have been mainly sports the past couple years with a mix of baseball, college football, college basketball and motorsports. Netflix is in discussions for the Home Run Derby, which would align with its strategy of going for a big event in a major sport. The streamer will have an NFL Christmas Day doubleheader this season for the second straight year. Apple TV, which has had 'Friday Night Baseball' since 2022, remains involved in negotiations. The deals would also accomplish another of Manfred's goals. He has said for three years that he would like to see MLB take a more national approach to its rights instead of a large percentage of its games being on regional sports networks. 'We're blessed with a huge amount of content: 2,430 games. Because of the amount of content, I think there will be some local component but I think the strategy needs to be more national and our reach needs to be more national,' he said during a panel discussion last September at the CNBC x Boardroom's Game Plan event. ___ AP MLB: Joe Reedy, The Associated Press Sign in to access your portfolio
San Francisco Chronicle
7 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
How MLB's upcoming deals will change how you watch out-of-market, Sunday night and Wild Card games
When ESPN opted out of its contract with Major League Baseball in February, the network was hoping to get a reworked package at a lower cost while Commissioner Rob Manfred thought the sport could optimize its rights in the short term for Home Run Derby and Wild Card round. In the end, both parties may get what they want. According to people familiar with negotiations, ESPN is nearing a deal to distribute out-of-market games while NBC/Peacock, Netflix, Apple TV are in talks for regular-season packages, the Wild Card round and Home Run Derby. All sides hope to have everything finalized by the end of the regular season next month, three people told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the contracts have not been finalized or announced by either side. The negotiations around the three-year deals is complicated due to the fact that MLB is also trying not to slight two of its other rights holders. MLB receives an average of $729 million from Fox and $470 million from Turner Sports per year under deals which expire after the 2028 season. While ESPN would be losing the playoffs and Home Run Derby, it would be gaining something it considers more valuable — the streaming package of out-of-market games as part of the direct-to-consumer service that launched on Thursday. ESPN would also sell the in-market rights to the five teams whose games are produced by MLB — San Diego, Colorado, Arizona, Cleveland and Minnesota. 'We are engaged. We are having healthy conversations with them. Nothing to announce today, but we're very interested in baseball in general,' ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro said on Tuesday during a presentation about the network's DTC service. ESPN, which has carried MLB games since 1990, opted out of the final three years of a seven-year deal in February. The package averaged $550 million per season and also included the Home Run Derby and Wild Card games. Baseball would be the second league that would have its out-of-market digital package available in the U.S. on ESPN's platform. The NHL moved its package to ESPN in 2021. It would also be a win-win situation for MLB and ESPN. Manfred wrote in a memo to owners after ESPN opted out of its contract: 'While ESPN has stated they would like to continue to have MLB on their platform, particularly in light of the upcoming launch of their DTC product, we do not think its beneficial for us to accept a smaller deal to remain on a shrinking platform. In order to best position MLB to optimize our rights going in to our next deal cycle, we believe it is not prudent to devalue our rights with an existing partner but rather to have our marquee regular season games, Home Run Derby and Wild Card playoff round on a new broadcast and/or streaming platform.' The moves keep ESPN involved in baseball, but at a point where it can benefit while MLB could benefit from other partners in a short-term deal. There is a possibility that ESPN would still air 30 regular-season games, but not Sunday nights. That package of games would go to NBC/Peacock, along with the Wild Card round. NBC, which celebrates its 100th anniversary next year, has a long history with baseball, albeit not much recently. The network carried games from 1939 through 1989. It was part of the short-lived Baseball Network with ABC in 1994 and '95 and then aired playoff games from 1996 through 2000. Peacock had a Sunday streaming package of early-afternoon games in 2022 and '23. The addition of baseball games would give NBC a year-around night of sports on Sunday nights. It has had NFL games on Sunday night since 2006 and will debut an NBA Sunday night slate in February. NBC would likely do Sunday Night Baseball from May through Labor Day weekend. Fox's Saturday nights have been mainly sports the past couple years with a mix of baseball, college football, college basketball and motorsports. Netflix is in discussions for the Home Run Derby, which would align with its strategy of going for a big event in a major sport. The streamer will have an NFL Christmas Day doubleheader this season for the second straight year. Apple TV, which has had 'Friday Night Baseball' since 2022, remains involved in negotiations. The deals would also accomplish another of Manfred's goals. He has said for three years that he would like to see MLB take a more national approach to its rights instead of a large percentage of its games being on regional sports networks. 'We're blessed with a huge amount of content: 2,430 games. Because of the amount of content, I think there will be some local component but I think the strategy needs to be more national and our reach needs to be more national,' he said during a panel discussion last September at the CNBC x Boardroom's Game Plan event.
Associated Press
8 minutes ago
- Associated Press
How MLB's upcoming deals will change how you watch out-of-market, Sunday night and Wild Card games
When ESPN opted out of its contract with Major League Baseball in February, the network was hoping to get a reworked package at a lower cost while Commissioner Rob Manfred thought the sport could optimize its rights in the short term for Home Run Derby and Wild Card round. In the end, both parties may get what they want. According to people familiar with negotiations, ESPN is nearing a deal to distribute out-of-market games while NBC/Peacock, Netflix, Apple TV are in talks for regular-season packages, the Wild Card round and Home Run Derby. All sides hope to have everything finalized by the end of the regular season next month, three people told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the contracts have not been finalized or announced by either side. The negotiations around the three-year deals is complicated due to the fact that MLB is also trying not to slight two of its other rights holders. MLB receives an average of $729 million from Fox and $470 million from Turner Sports per year under deals which expire after the 2028 season. While ESPN would be losing the playoffs and Home Run Derby, it would be gaining something it considers more valuable — the streaming package of out-of-market games as part of the direct-to-consumer service that launched on Thursday. ESPN would also sell the in-market rights to the five teams whose games are produced by MLB — San Diego, Colorado, Arizona, Cleveland and Minnesota. 'We are engaged. We are having healthy conversations with them. Nothing to announce today, but we're very interested in baseball in general,' ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro said on Tuesday during a presentation about the network's DTC service. ESPN, which has carried MLB games since 1990, opted out of the final three years of a seven-year deal in February. The package averaged $550 million per season and also included the Home Run Derby and Wild Card games. Baseball would be the second league that would have its out-of-market digital package available in the U.S. on ESPN's platform. The NHL moved its package to ESPN in 2021. It would also be a win-win situation for MLB and ESPN. Manfred wrote in a memo to owners after ESPN opted out of its contract: 'While ESPN has stated they would like to continue to have MLB on their platform, particularly in light of the upcoming launch of their DTC product, we do not think its beneficial for us to accept a smaller deal to remain on a shrinking platform. In order to best position MLB to optimize our rights going in to our next deal cycle, we believe it is not prudent to devalue our rights with an existing partner but rather to have our marquee regular season games, Home Run Derby and Wild Card playoff round on a new broadcast and/or streaming platform.' The moves keep ESPN involved in baseball, but at a point where it can benefit while MLB could benefit from other partners in a short-term deal. There is a possibility that ESPN would still air 30 regular-season games, but not Sunday nights. That package of games would go to NBC/Peacock, along with the Wild Card round. NBC, which celebrates its 100th anniversary next year, has a long history with baseball, albeit not much recently. The network carried games from 1939 through 1989. It was part of the short-lived Baseball Network with ABC in 1994 and '95 and then aired playoff games from 1996 through 2000. Peacock had a Sunday streaming package of early-afternoon games in 2022 and '23. The addition of baseball games would give NBC a year-around night of sports on Sunday nights. It has had NFL games on Sunday night since 2006 and will debut an NBA Sunday night slate in February. NBC would likely do Sunday Night Baseball from May through Labor Day weekend. Fox's Saturday nights have been mainly sports the past couple years with a mix of baseball, college football, college basketball and motorsports. Netflix is in discussions for the Home Run Derby, which would align with its strategy of going for a big event in a major sport. The streamer will have an NFL Christmas Day doubleheader this season for the second straight year. Apple TV, which has had 'Friday Night Baseball' since 2022, remains involved in negotiations. The deals would also accomplish another of Manfred's goals. He has said for three years that he would like to see MLB take a more national approach to its rights instead of a large percentage of its games being on regional sports networks. 'We're blessed with a huge amount of content: 2,430 games. Because of the amount of content, I think there will be some local component but I think the strategy needs to be more national and our reach needs to be more national,' he said during a panel discussion last September at the CNBC x Boardroom's Game Plan event. ___ AP MLB:
