Oil prices edge lower before Trump-Putin summit in Alaska
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was down by 0.60 per cent at 12.06pm UAE time to $66.44 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate – the gauge that tracks US crude – was trading 0.66 per cent lower at $63.54 a barrel.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump made comments praising each other before the meeting, raising hopes of an end to the war, that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and disrupted global financial and commodity markets.
Mr Putin on Thursday said the US was making 'sincere efforts' to end the war, while Mr Trump said that he believed Russian President was ready to negotiate.
'I believe now, he's convinced that he's going to make a deal. He's going to make a deal. I think he's going to, and we're going to find out,' Mr Trump said in an interview on Fox News Radio on Thursday.
Mr Putin in televised comments, meanwhile, said that the US was 'making, in my opinion, quite energetic and sincere efforts to stop the hostilities, stop the crisis and reach agreements that are of interest to all parties involved in this conflict'.
Oil markets were heavily affected after war broke out between Russia and Ukraine more than three years ago.
Oil prices surged to $140 a barrel in March 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions by the US and the UK on the import of crude from Moscow.
However, prices fell in the subsequent months, amid a number of factors impacting markets, including concerns of a global economic slowdown, high inflation and a China slowdown.
A ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia after the talks in Alaska could have a bearish effect on oil markets as more Russian oil could flow into global markets if sanctions are eased on Moscow. However, if the two countries do not agree on a deal, it will support oil prices by limiting Russian supply.
'The upcoming meeting looks more likely to sour than succeed, with oil flows potentially caught in the crossfire,' said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
'US crude recently breached the $65 support and is consolidating in a medium-term bearish zone, where ample supply and cloudy demand argue for further downside – though a softer dollar is cushioning the slide.'
Supply forecast for 2025
The International Energy Agency this week raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year following a decision by the Opec producer group to hike production and lowered its demand forecast due to lacklustre demand across the major economies.
The IEA expects world oil supply to rise by about 370,000 barrels a day to 2.5 million barrels a day in 2025 and by 620,000 bpd to 1.9 million bpd in 2026, after the eight Opec members this month decided to raise production by another 547,000 bpd in September, fully unwinding the 2.2 million bpd cuts agreed to in November 2023.
World oil demand will rise by 680,000 bpd this year, down from 700,000 bpd previously forecast, the Paris-based agency said.
'The latest data show lacklustre demand across the major economies and, with consumer confidence still depressed, a sharp rebound appears remote,' the Paris-based agency said.
Consumption in emerging and developing economies has been weaker than expected, with China, Brazil, Egypt and India all revised down compared with last month's IEA report.
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The National
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US President Donald Trump greeted Russian President Vladimir Putin with a handshake ahead of a high-stakes summit in Alaska on Friday that could determine whether a ceasefire can be reached in the deadliest war in Europe since World War Two. Trump disembarked his plane, Air Force One, and awaited Putin on the tarmac. The two exchanged greetings while smiling. US F-22 aircraft were placed on either side of the red carpet. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who was not invited to the talks, and his European allies fear Trump might sell out Ukraine by essentially freezing the conflict with Russia and recognising, if only informally, Russian control over one-fifth of Ukraine. Trump sought to assuage such concerns as he boarded Air Force One, saying he would let Ukraine decide on any possible territorial swaps. "I'm not here to negotiate for Ukraine, I'm here to get them at a table," he said. Asked what would make the meeting a success, he told reporters: "I want to see a ceasefire rapidly ... I'm not going to be happy if it's not today ... I want the killing to stop." Trump will be joined in his meeting with Putin by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump's special envoy to Russia, Steve Witkoff, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said. At the subsequent larger, bilateral meeting, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and chief of staff Susie Wiles will also join Trump, Leavitt said. The Russian officials accompanying Putin in the talks with the US delegation will be foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told CNN. Trump hopes a truce in the three-and-a-half-year war will bring peace to the region as well as bolster his credentials as a global peacemaker worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize. For Putin, the summit is already a big win that he can portray as evidence that years of Western attempts to isolate Russia have unravelled and that Moscow is retaking its rightful place at the top table of international diplomacy. Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev described the pre-summit mood as "combative" and said the two leaders would discuss not only Ukraine but the full spectrum of bilateral relations, Russia's RIA news agency reported. Trump, who once said he would end Russia's war in Ukraine within 24 hours, conceded on Thursday it had proven a tougher task than he had expected. He said if Friday's talks went well, quickly arranging a second, three-way summit with Zelenskiy would be even more important than his encounter with Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a three-way summit would be possible if the Alaska talks bore fruit, Interfax news agency reported. Peskov also said Friday's talks could last six to seven hours. Zelenskiy said the summit should open the way for a "just peace" and three-way talks that included him, but added that Russia was continuing to wage war. A Russian ballistic missile earlier struck Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region, killing one person and wounding another. "It's time to end the war, and the necessary steps must be taken by Russia. We are counting on America," Zelenskiy wrote on the Telegram messaging app. 'Smart guy' Trump said there is mutual respect between him and Putin. "He is a smart guy, been doing it for a long time, but so have I ... We get along, there's a good respect level on both sides," Trump said of Putin. He also welcomed Putin's decision to bring businesspeople to Alaska. "But they're not doing business until we get the war settled," he said, repeating a threat of "economically severe" consequences for Russia if the summit goes badly. The United States has had internal discussions on using Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker vessels to support the development of gas and LNG projects in Alaska as one of the possible deals to aim for, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. One source acquainted with Kremlin thinking said there were signs Moscow could be ready to strike a compromise on Ukraine, given that Putin understood Russia's economic vulnerability and costs of continuing the war. Reuters has previously reported that Putin might be willing to freeze the conflict along the front lines, provided there was a legally binding pledge not to enlarge NATO eastwards and to lift some Western sanctions. NATO has said Ukraine's future is in the alliance. Russia, whose war economy is showing strain, is vulnerable to further US sanctions, and Trump has threatened tariffs on buyers of Russian crude, primarily China and India. "For Putin, economic problems are secondary to goals, but he understands our vulnerability and costs," the Russian source said. Putin this week held out the prospect of something else he knows Trump wants, a new nuclear arms control accord to replace the last surviving one, which is due to expire in February. Common ground? The source familiar with Kremlin thinking said it looked as if the two sides had been able to find some common ground. "Apparently, some terms will be agreed upon ... because Trump cannot be refused, and we are not in a position to refuse (due to sanctions pressure)," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity. Putin has said he is open to a full ceasefire but that issues of verification must first be sorted out. One compromise could be a truce in the air war. Zelenskiy has ruled out formally handing Moscow any territory and is also seeking a security guarantee backed by the United States. Ukrainians who spoke to Reuters in central Kyiv on Friday were not optimistic about the summit. "Nothing good will happen there, because war is war, it will not end. The territories - we're not going to give anything to anyone," said Tetiana Harkavenko, a 65-year-old cleaner.
The National
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Trump and Putin arrive in Alaska for 'high-stakes' meeting
US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin arrived in Alaska on Friday for their keenly awaited meeting about Ukraine. Mr Trump met Mr Putin at the airport in Anchorage. They shook hands while smiling at each other on the red carpet and posed for a photo on a small stage with "Alaska 2025" written across it. The two leaders then entered the US President's famed Beast limousine and drove away. The leaders, who historically have got on well, are meeting at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, a location that played a vital role in Washington's efforts to monitor Russia during the Cold War. The meeting, which Mr Trump described as 'high stakes', comes after months of failed US diplomacy to end the Russia-Ukraine war. While on the campaign trail, Mr Trump promised that he would end the war within the first 24 hours of his second term. Eight months later, the war continues to rage. Since January 20, when Mr Trump returned to the Oval Office, Russian attacks against Ukraine have more than doubled, according to a recent report from the BBC. As Washington changed tactics, slowing support for Ukraine and softening its rhetoric towards Russia, Mr Putin has attempted to ramp up military efforts against Ukraine. Russia still occupies large areas of eastern Ukraine, and that land is likely to be at the centre of any potential peace deal. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been adamant that Ukraine will not cede any territory, but Mr Trump, who has had a contentious relationship with Mr Zelenskyy, has said in the past that both countries may need to accept land swaps to achieve peace. In February, the US President tasked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, who was then the national security adviser, and special envoy Steve Witkoff with meeting with a Russian delegation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. That meeting laid the groundwork for the meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Putin that is taking place in Alaska, but it took longer than many expected for the two leaders to meet. Despite Washington's overtures, Mr Putin has made very few real concessions on the battlefield, much to Mr Trump's chagrin. The President gave Mr Putin 50 days to end the war, a deadline that has since come and gone, threatening secondary sanctions on Moscow's major trading partners. Earlier this month, Mr Trump once again dispatched Mr Witkoff to Moscow in an effort to rein in Russia's intensifying attacks. Mr Witkoff, who has a sprawling diplomatic portfolio, has met with Mr Putin five times in Russia since January. Mr Witkoff will be among the US President's advisers at the summit. Other administration officials in attendance are Mr Rubio, who also serves as National Security Adviser, Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and several others. Mr Putin is accompanied by his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov – who wore a USSR sweatshirt as he arrived in Alaska – Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. It is the first known meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Putin since 2018, when they met in Helsinki, Finland.
