FedEx St. Jude Championship matchup, prop picks: Justin Thomas or Russell Henley?
Below, we search for the best value prop bets for the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship from BetMGM Sportsbook's odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
There are 70 players in the FedExCup Playoffs, but only 69 are playing this week because Rory McIlroy is skipping the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The top 50 players in the standings after this week will advance to the BMW Championship, with McIlroy already locking up a spot in the top 50.
Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to win in Memphis at +300, with Xander Schauffele (+1400) coming in as the second-favorite. Tommy Fleetwood (+2200), Justin Thomas (+2500) and Ludvig Aberg (+2500) are among the top contenders to win, as well.
TPC Southwind is a difficult course that plays at 7,288 yards as a par 70, featuring water hazards throughout the property. The winning score has been between 13-under and 17-under each year since 2019, with this being the fourth year as a FedExCup Playoffs event on the calendar.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:37 p.m. ET.
Hovland has contended here in recent years, finishing second in 2024, 13th in 2023 and 20th in 2022. That's a testament to his ball-striking, which gives him a big advantage with how well he hits his irons.
Thomas won this event in 2020 before it was a playoff event, so he knows how to take care of business at TPC Southwind. Since 2019, he also has finishes of 12th, 13th and 26th, showing his victory was no fluke.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-10 picks
It's hard to bet Fleetwood to win at this point after seeing him give away the Travelers Championship in June, but this course is perfect for him. He's finished third, fourth and 22nd in 3 of his 5 starts since 2019, coming close to winning here in the past.
Straka is as good an iron player as there is right now so he's someone to take seriously at a course like TPC Southwind. He finished second in 2022 when he lost in a playoff to Will Zalatoris, nearly taking home the title that week.
Berger's coures history is the best of any player in the field, winning in 2016 and 2017, with finishes of second and fifth in 2020 and 2021, respectively. His lone hiccup was a missed cut in 2018, but other than that, he's been lights out in his last 5 starts here.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-20 picks
Spieth must kick things into gear now and TPC Southwind is a good place for him to get going, having come in 12th in 2019, 12th in 2021 and sixth in 2023. He struggled here last year but if he can dial in his irons, he'll have a chance to contend.
Im was sixth in 2023 and 12th in 2022 at this event, playing well 2 years in a row at TPC Southwind. It's been a disappointing year for him in 2025, but he did show signs of improvement last week with a T-27 at the Wyndham Championship.
Rose can never be counted out at this point in his career, especially at a place where he's come in 22nd and 20th the last two years, with an 11th-place showing in 2019. He nearly won the Masters and finished 16th at the Open Championship, so he's been in good form.
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FedEx St. Jude Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Justin Thomas (+105) vs. Russell Henley (-135)
Thomas is a former champion and could be poised to go on a run in the playoffs. His worst finish in this event since 2019 is 26th, so his floor should be fairly high.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top English
Fleetwood is the favorite in this market over Matt Fitzpatrick (+250) and Aaron Rai (+300), and he should be. He's played great all year and while he doesn't have a win, he has been in contention.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top Korean
It's Im vs. Si Woo Kim (-125) in this market as the only two Koreans in the field. Take the underdog Im at a course where he's played well before.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – First-round leader
Fleetwood fired rounds of 66 and 66 in the last two years to open this event, so he's been close to claiming the first-round lead each time. He's comfortable at TPC Southwind and could be in for a big week.
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