Morgan Stanley sees a 'rolling recovery' underway that's set to drive the stock market up 12% by mid-2026
After markets were battered in April amid Donald Trump's tariff announcements, earnings are getting a boost from a handful of sources.
The bank said that April's price action represented the end of a "rolling earnings recession" that began in 2022.
"Now, we appear to be transitioning to a rolling recovery backdrop aided by positive operating leverage, AI adoption, dollar weakness, cash tax savings from the OBBBA, easy growth comparisons, pent up demand for many sectors, and a high probability of Fed cuts by 1Q26," the bank's chief investment office Michael Wilson wrote.
The bank sees the S&P 500 rising to 7,200 in its bull case, a 12% jump from Friday's close. It also said the probability of such an outcome for the broad index is on the rise. Wilson said that high valuations that some observers have been fretting over appear to be justified.
The bank recommends the industrials sector as its top pick, even after it has been the top-performing sector of the S&P 500 year-to-date.
Major market indexes have risen steadily over the past week, with the S&P 500 closing at record highs on July 25. The index is up 9% year-to-date.
Morgan Stanley's prediction comes as economic uncertainty appears to be easing. With President Donald Trump announcing a new trade agreement with the European Union and the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates later this year, investors may be feeling more confident in the market's strength.
"The historically sharp inflection we're seeing in earnings revisions breadth confirms this process is underway," the bank stated, noting that it sees this phenomenon as underappreciated.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
3 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Asian shares track rally on Wall Street that won back most of Friday's wipeout
BANGKOK (AP) — Asian shares advanced on Tuesday, following U.S. stocks higher after they won back most of their sharp loss from last week. Investors appeared to have recovered some confidence after worries over how President Donald Trump's tariffs may be punishing the economy sent a shudder through Wall Street last week. At the same time, a stunningly weak U.S. jobs report Friday raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting in September, potentially a plus for markets. This week's highlights will likely include earnings reports from The Walt Disney Co., McDonald's and Caterpillar, along with updates on U.S. business activity. In Asian trading, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index gained 0.6% to 40,515.81, while the Kospi in South Korea jumped 1.4% to 3,192.57. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng rose 0.3% to 24,799.67. The Shanghai Composite index was up 0.5% at 3,602.13. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1.1% to 8,759.90, while the SET in Thailand also gained 1.1%. India's Sensex was the sole outlier, losing 0.5% on concerns over trade tensions with the United States, with the Trump administration insisting on cutbacks in oil purchases from Russia. India has indicated that it will continue buying oil from Russia, saying its relationship with Moscow was 'steady and time-tested,' and that its stance on securing its energy needs is guided by the availability of oil in the markets and prevailing global circumstances. 'Trump's threats of 'substantial' tariff hikes on account of imports of Russian crude pose a quagmire for India,' Mizuho Bank said in a commentary. 'Between exacerbated U.S.-imposed geo-economic headwinds and financial/macro setbacks from Russian oil advantages lost, pain will be hard to avert.' On Monday, the S&P 500 jumped 1.5% to 6,329.94. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.3%, or 585.06 points, to 44,173.64. The Nasdaq composite leaped 2% to 21,053.58. Idexx Laboratories helped Wall Street recover from its worst day since May, soaring 27.5% after the seller of veterinary instruments and other health care products reported a stronger profit for the spring than analysts expected. The pressure is on U.S. companies to deliver bigger profits after their stock prices shot to record after record recently. Reports from big U.S. companies have largely come in better than expected and could help steady a U.S. stock market that may have been due for some turbulence. A jump in stock prices from a low point in April had raised criticism that the broad market had become too expensive. Tyson Foods likewise delivered a bigger-than-expected profit for the latest quarter, and the company behind the Jimmy Dean and Hillshire Farms brands rose 2.4%. They helped make up for a nearly 3% loss for Berkshire Hathaway after Warren Buffett's company reported a drop in profit for its latest quarter from a year earlier. The drop-off was due in part to the falling value of its investment in Kraft Heinz. American Eagle Outfitters jumped 23.6% after Trump weighed in on the debate surrounding the retailer's advertisements, which highlight actor Sydney Sweeney's great jeans. Some critics thought the reference to the blonde-haired and blue-eyed actor's 'great genes' may be extolling a narrow set of beauty standards. 'Go get 'em Sydney!' Trump said on his social media network. Wayfair climbed 12.7% after the retailer of furniture and home decor said accelerating growth helped it make more in profit and revenue during the spring than analysts expected. Tesla rose 2.2% after awarding CEO Elon Musk 96 million shares of restricted stock valued at approximately $29 billion. The move could alleviate worries that Musk may leave the company. In other dealings early Tuesday, U.S. benchmark crude oil shed 9 cents to $66.20 per barrel while Brent crude, the international standard, gave up 8 cents to $68.68 per barrel. The U.S. dollar was unchanged at 147.09 Japanese yen. The euro slipped to $1.1555 from $1.1573. ___ AP Business Writers Stan Choe and Matt Ott contributed. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
3 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Corporate profits are slowing
Shares in American Eagle Outfitters rose nearly 24 per cent yesterday after President Donald Trump called the company's controversial Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Associated Press
6 minutes ago
- Associated Press
Asian shares track rally on Wall Street that won back most of Friday's wipeout
BANGKOK (AP) — Asian shares advanced on Tuesday, following U.S. stocks higher after they won back most of their sharp loss from last week. Investors appeared to have recovered some confidence after worries over how President Donald Trump's tariffs may be punishing the economy sent a shudder through Wall Street last week. At the same time, a stunningly weak U.S. jobs report Friday raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting in September, potentially a plus for markets. This week's highlights will likely include earnings reports from The Walt Disney Co., McDonald's and Caterpillar, along with updates on U.S. business activity. In Asian trading, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index gained 0.6% to 40,515.81, while the Kospi in South Korea jumped 1.4% to 3,192.57. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng rose 0.3% to 24,799.67. The Shanghai Composite index was up 0.5% at 3,602.13. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1.1% to 8,759.90, while the SET in Thailand also gained 1.1%. India's Sensex was the sole outlier, losing 0.5% on concerns over trade tensions with the United States, with the Trump administration insisting on cutbacks in oil purchases from Russia. India has indicated that it will continue buying oil from Russia, saying its relationship with Moscow was 'steady and time-tested,' and that its stance on securing its energy needs is guided by the availability of oil in the markets and prevailing global circumstances. 'Trump's threats of 'substantial' tariff hikes on account of imports of Russian crude pose a quagmire for India,' Mizuho Bank said in a commentary. 'Between exacerbated U.S.-imposed geo-economic headwinds and financial/macro setbacks from Russian oil advantages lost, pain will be hard to avert.' On Monday, the S&P 500 jumped 1.5% to 6,329.94. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.3%, or 585.06 points, to 44,173.64. The Nasdaq composite leaped 2% to 21,053.58. Idexx Laboratories helped Wall Street recover from its worst day since May, soaring 27.5% after the seller of veterinary instruments and other health care products reported a stronger profit for the spring than analysts expected. The pressure is on U.S. companies to deliver bigger profits after their stock prices shot to record after record recently. Reports from big U.S. companies have largely come in better than expected and could help steady a U.S. stock market that may have been due for some turbulence. A jump in stock prices from a low point in April had raised criticism that the broad market had become too expensive. Tyson Foods likewise delivered a bigger-than-expected profit for the latest quarter, and the company behind the Jimmy Dean and Hillshire Farms brands rose 2.4%. They helped make up for a nearly 3% loss for Berkshire Hathaway after Warren Buffett's company reported a drop in profit for its latest quarter from a year earlier. The drop-off was due in part to the falling value of its investment in Kraft Heinz. American Eagle Outfitters jumped 23.6% after Trump weighed in on the debate surrounding the retailer's advertisements, which highlight actor Sydney Sweeney's great jeans. Some critics thought the reference to the blonde-haired and blue-eyed actor's 'great genes' may be extolling a narrow set of beauty standards. 'Go get 'em Sydney!' Trump said on his social media network. Wayfair climbed 12.7% after the retailer of furniture and home decor said accelerating growth helped it make more in profit and revenue during the spring than analysts expected. Tesla rose 2.2% after awarding CEO Elon Musk 96 million shares of restricted stock valued at approximately $29 billion. The move could alleviate worries that Musk may leave the company. In other dealings early Tuesday, U.S. benchmark crude oil shed 9 cents to $66.20 per barrel while Brent crude, the international standard, gave up 8 cents to $68.68 per barrel. The U.S. dollar was unchanged at 147.09 Japanese yen. The euro slipped to $1.1555 from $1.1573. ___ AP Business Writers Stan Choe and Matt Ott contributed.
