Ghosts of Russian imperialism haunt Alaska summit

RTÉ News​

2 days ago

From the onion domes of the Orthodox churches to the local penchant for potato dumplings, resonances of Russia's imperial past are not hard to find in Alaska.
This once was, after all, Russian territory.
In 1867, Tsar Alexander II, in a bit of a financial bind having just lost the Crimean War, decided to raise money from its sale to prop up the home front.
The far-flung icy outpost across the Bering Strait was difficult to defend and its primary industry at the time - the fur trade - was not that lucrative anyway.
So, the Americans snapped it up for $7.2 million (€6.1 million).
US critics dubbed the Alaska purchase 'Seward's folly,' after Secretary of State William Seward.
But with the subsequent discovery of vast mineral resources - including oil and gold - Mr Seward looked a lot less foolish.
For some in Russia, though, it became a source of regret - the kind of historical loss folksongs are written and half-jokes told about. But the Kremlin has never made any serious move to reclaim it.
Nevertheless, a summit, evoking memories of Russia's former conquest at a time it occupies nearly 20% of modern-day Ukraine is, for Ukraine and its European allies, discomforting symbolism.
This week, Mr Trump's press spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt said the summit would be a "listening exercise", invoking another historical spectre, this time of the Cold War.
Alaska was home to the radar stations designed to warn the US of a Soviet attack.
The military base where the presidents will meet, was also a crucial Cold War installation.
Of course, the ex-KGB spy and former reality TV star have met many times before.
The warm smiles, chuckles and handshakes on display during Mr Trump's first term showed a rapport between the two presidents, enough that some Washington wags dubbed it a "bromance".
Contrast that with the public humiliation suffered by Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, at the hands of Mr Trump and his deputy JD Vance earlier this year.
This summit is a "gift for Putin," said Katie Stallard, author of Dancing on Bones, a book on the authoritarian leaders in Russia, China and North Korea.
"Sitting down with Trump in Alaska will enable him to show that Western efforts to isolate him and render him a global pariah over the past three years have failed," she said.
"The US has been forced to treat him with respect and listen to his concerns as a fellow leader of a great power, rather than an indicted war criminal," she added.
Mr Trump's comments earlier suggesting "a land swap," induced panic among European leaders that a carve-up was on the table - a table that neither they nor Ukraine were invited to join.
Those worries seemed to subside after the collective Zoom call with the White House on Wednesday.
But Mr Putin has not budged from his hard line demands - a guarantee Ukraine will not join NATO, international recognition of Russian-occupied territories of Eastern Ukraine and Ukraine's withdrawal from the Donbas, something Mr Zelensky has rejected outright.
"Donbas for the Russians is a springboard for a future new offensive," he said.
Also, the very idea of a "land swap" seems to have originated from a misunderstanding during a meeting with President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow, according to analysts.
"We don't know the details, but it appears Witkoff believed that Russia was willing to keep the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and give up the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions to the Ukrainians," said Kate Mallinson, partner at Prism, a London-based political risk consultancy.
That was "fanciful," she said, because Russia would never withdraw from territory it occupies, and no Ukrainian leader could agree to such a "brazen trade in territory".
"This means the entire basis for the talks - the land swap Trump spoke about on Monday - appears to be a non-starter," she added.
But Mr Trump did say he would follow through on his threat to increase secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil - like India and China - if peace talks fail.
On Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled down, warning that Washington would raise its 25% tariff on India if the summit with Mr Putin did not go well.
Mr Bessent also took a swipe at European leaders who he said were "in the wings carping".
"The Europeans need to join us in these sanctions," he told Bloomberg news.
He also hinted that sanctions on China - the largest importer of Russian crude - could also be raised.
It was likely the threat of secondary sanctions that brought Mr Putin to the table, analysts told RTÉ News.
After all, without oil sales to China, India and Iran, he would not have been able to keep his war machine going for this long.
Which brings us to the question of what Mr Putin might offer his American counterpart at the summit to stave off that threat.
The fact he is bringing his finance minister Anton Siluanov and key investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev suggests Mr Putin is more than ready to talk business.
Here again, Alaska carries symbolism.
This is the gateway to the Arctic - an increasingly important geostrategic area as thawing ice sheets open up navigable sea routes as well as access to mineral deposits.
"The arctic is definitely at play," Marisol Maddox, Senior Arctic Fellow at Dartmouth College said.
"The idea of a joint US-Russian Arctic energy project in the Russian arctic has been floated," she said.
"Also, Russia wants sanctions relief and access to western expertise to pursue further arctic development projects," she added.
Mr Trump's fascination with critical minerals is well known. He suggested annexing Greenland for theirs and persuaded Ukraine into a deal that would give US companies very favourable mining rights.
Whatever carrot Mr Putin dangles, it may not be enough to dissuade Mr Trump from upping secondary sanctions.
He promised to finish the Russia-Ukraine war within 24-hours of taking office and his frustration with Mr Putin has grown, as a deal has proven elusive.
He is also under pressure from the "America-first" contingent of his cabinet who are anxious to see the US shift the responsibility for European security to the Europeans.
"We're done with the funding of the Ukraine war business," Mr Vance told Fox News last weekend.
"We want to bring about a peaceful settlement to this thing."
He went on to say the Europeans should "step up" and buy weapons from American producers.
"But we're not going to fund it ourselves anymore," he said.
But here is where the Russian team's longer negotiating experience may outfox the US side.
"The Trump White House has gutted a lot of the expertise in the administration, most notably in the National Security Council and the State Department," said Ms Mallinson.
"By contrast, Putin knows these issues extremely well and is an experienced statesman," she added.
Mr Trump seethed at the US press coverage this week, suggesting he could be outmanoeuvred by a more experienced and wilier Russian negotiating team.
So, whatever happens this afternoon, he will want to bill this summit as a success.
But as with the Alaska purchase, the real outcome may take time to emerge.