Thai politics back at the brink (again)

Bangkok Post

14 hours ago

The Constitutional Court's suspension of Paetongtarn Shinawatra from the premiership is déjà vu, exposing a pattern of systematic manipulation and concoction of political outcomes. After so many dissolutions of leading political parties and repeated bans of elected representatives over two decades, it is time to call a spade a spade. Thailand is a faux democracy. Its core foundations constitute an autocratic regime that does not really care about the country's future and the collective will of its people.
This is not to say that Ms Paetongtarn was not in the wrong. Her leaked audio clip with Cambodia's former Prime Minister and Senate President Hun Sen was damning and damaging, whereby she compromised her position and Thailand's national interest by catering to the Cambodian strongman in a misguided attempt to defuse border tensions between the two sides. But having a group of senators from a dubious chamber petition a nine-member Constitution Court to go after her is questionable in itself.
The 200-member senate has been hounded by allegations of collusion and vote-rigging, in which the Bhumjaithai Party is accused of gaming and manipulation in the senatorial election in June last year, when the upper chamber was picked from internal nomination processes at local, provincial, and national levels. It must be noted that the Constitutional Court on 1 July dismissed a petition against the Bhumjaithai Party as well as poll staff in the controversial senate election. Although the court has dismissed a petition that called out the controversial senate, questions linger in the minds of many about the integrity of the upper chamber.
If this judicial assertiveness takes place as a one-off or once in a while, then we could overlook and consider it as due process in a passable legal and constitutional system. But when political parties and prime ministers are suspended and kicked out after every election for 20 years, something is not right with the democracy.
Ms Paetongtarn is the sixth of such suspensions, although her removal or acquittal is still pending. Preceding her as suspended prime ministers were Samak Sundaravej, Somchai Wongsawat, Yingluck Shinawatra, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, and Srettha Thavisin. All of them, except Gen Prayut, were members of the Shinawatra clan, headed by Thaksin Shinawatra. Except Gen Prayut, who was suspended but later allowed to continue in the premiership, all others were booted out by the court or a military coup. Gen Prayut himself led the coup in 2014.
To be sure, this is not just about the Shinawatra clan and Mr Thaksin, who is fighting charges of royal defamation and criminal violation of his jail conditions after returning from 15 years of self-imposed exile. We tend to forget because memories are short around here due to the constant political drama that keeps unfolding. Controversial charges about minor and obscure media shareholdings also led to the dissolution and removal of the Future Forward Party and its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, in November 2019. Future Forward's successor, the Move Forward Party, and its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, faced a similar fate after becoming the largest winner in the May 2023 poll.
True, Mr Thaksin's enemies have been going after him and his clan because he indelibly and unwittingly opened up the Thai political system by awakening the rural masses and because he engaged in conflicts of interest and corruption in the process. But the forces that can seize power, impose long bans on elected representatives, and get rid of political parties are focused on the threat of the day and of the era, not just the Shinawatras.
Now, we should be wondering that putting Ms Paetongtarn in limbo, even while she continues as culture minister after a cabinet reshuffle that preceded her suspension, will create conditions of political intractability and policy paralysis to frustrate the Thai public into calling for an extra-parliamentary intervention to end the manufactured deadlock. We have seen this kind of drama before in 2005-06, 2008, and 2023-14, when street demonstrations paved the way for either a military coup or a judicial intervention to determine political outcomes. What we do know is that Thailand has regressed internationally and economically over the past two decades because of its political standstill and autocratic preferences.
In the interim, Thailand's political environment will be precarious and volatile. Clearly, the so-called "super deal" that brought Mr Thaksin back from exile was believed to keep Move Forward out, not to move Thailand forward under a Shinawatra-led government. Otherwise, Mr Thaksin would not have been put on legal leashes early on, and Ms Paetongtarn would not have landed in the political deep end today. With the court's 7-2 suspension decision and 9-0 to accept the case, her political survival appears doubtful.
Even if the court returns a favourable verdict, Ms Paetongtarn will be hard pressed to continue in office in the face of street protests led by a conservative coalition comprising her father's enemies, an opposition grilling in parliament by both Bhumjaithai and Move Forward's successor, the Prachachon (People's) Party, the economic doldrums, and souring public sentiment. Ms Paetongtarn may be seen as a spent force, and her political longevity in the remaining two years of the current parliamentary term looks unlikely.
Given that Thailand will always have a national assembly in place, it is still useful to anticipate what type it will be. If the current assembly stays without Ms Paetongtarn because of her expulsion, then a new prime minister will be chosen from the pre-election party lists of nominees. Bhumjaithai's leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, would have a good shot despite his party holding just half of the strength of Pheu Thai's 140 MPs. Pheu Thai's last eligible candidate is Chaikasem Nitisiri. On the other hand, a newly elected assembly would require a new poll. Ms Paetongtarn cannot dissolve the lower house while under suspension, and it is unclear whether acting PM Phumtham Wechayachai can opt for a snap poll.
An appointed assembly would normally follow a military takeover. As Thai politics becomes murkier and governance more unruly, the prolonged political vacuum and ineffectual government will likely stoke conservative calls for a military takeover to end the morass and volatility. The risk of such intervention has risen visibly in view of Ms Paetongtarn's suspension, coalition squabbling, government uncertainty, and policy weakness and inertia, including the tariff negotiations with President Donald Trump's trade team and Thailand's budget bill for the next fiscal year from Oct 1.
In truth, Thailand finds itself in a messy situation under a fragile democratic system and an entrenched autocracy, not out of randomness and pure chance.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak is professor at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies in Bangkok.