Market Analysis: April 14th, 2025
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Canadian Markets
The Toronto TSX rose almost 1 percent today, despite a decline in commodity prices. Investors are shifting focus toward monetary policy expectations, as a rising risk of recession in Canada has prompted economists to forecast at least two more interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada in 2025. Slowing economic indicators and weak consumer demand are driving expectations for further monetary easing to support growth.
American Markets
U.S. stocks moved higher after the White House announced a temporary exemption on smartphones and computers from the latest round of tariffs targeting Chinese goods. The exemption is a relief to tech companies like Apple and Dell, which heavily rely on imports from China.However, concerns about the labor market remain elevated. The New York Federal Reserve's latest consumer expectations survey showed that the mean probability respondents assign to higher U.S. unemployment one year from now surged by 4.6 percentage points to 44%, marking the highest level since April 2020, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.Additionally, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon stated that the prospect of a U.S. recession has increased, citing persistent inflation, tighter financial conditions, and growing global uncertainty.
European Markets
European shares rallied, largely powered by strong performance in the technology sector, which has benefited from falling bond yields and robust earnings. However, the region's broader economic picture remains concerning, particularly in Germany, where consumer spending continues to lag. The lack of consumer momentum is contributing to stagnation in the eurozone's largest economy.
UK stocks gained ground after Barclays revised its Q1 GDP growth forecast upward. The bank now expects 0.7% quarter-on-quarter growth, a sharp increase from its earlier estimate of 0.2%. This optimism follows robust GDP data for February, which showed a 0.5% month-on-month increase, suggesting that the UK economy may be gaining traction despite global headwinds.
Corporate Stock News
Alphabet Inc/Nvidia Corp
Alphabet and Nvidia have joined major venture capital firms in backing Safe Superintelligence (SSI), an AI startup co-founded by OpenAI's former chief scientist Ilya Sutskever. Despite launching only months ago, SSI has quickly become one of the most valuable AI startups.
Apple Inc & Dell Technologies Inc
Exempt from recent reciprocal tariffs, but new sector-specific tariffs on electronics, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals expected within 1–2 months. JPMorgan cut target price to $245 from $270.
BlackRock Inc
JPMorgan cut target price to $988 from $1046 due to expected muted near-term growth.
BP Plc
Announced an oil discovery in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (Green Canyon Block 584). Plans to grow Gulf production to 400,000 boepd by 2030.
Golub Capital BDC Inc
CVC exploring a $75B deal for Golub; unclear if it will proceed, as Golub is not considering a sale.
JPMorgan Chase & Co
Piper Sandler cut target price to $260 from $270 after reviewing Q1 guidance.
Meta Platforms Inc
Facing FTC antitrust trial to unwind acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp.
Morgan Stanley
RBC cut target price to $128 from $142; strong net interest income offset by lower non-interest income and higher expenses.
Pfizer Inc
Discontinued development of weight-loss pill danuglipron after a patient experienced liver injury. Other pharmacokinetic goals were met, but safety remains a concern.
Ryanair Holdings Plc
May cut flights at smaller Spanish airports in winter 2025–26 if Aena doesn't lower airport fees.
South Bow Corp
Cut crude trading team from 5 to 2 to focus on stable pipeline revenue. Keystone pipeline restart set for April 15 after North Dakota spill.
Telefonica SA
Sold bankrupt Peruvian unit to Integra Tec International for €900K. Integra Tec assumes €1.24B debt and minority share purchases.
United States Steel Corporation
Trump reiterated opposition to Japanese acquisition by Nippon Steel. C
Warner Bros Discovery Inc
Not selling Polish broadcaster TVN, ending speculation amid geopolitical volatility.
Wells Fargo & Co
Barclays cut target price on WFC to $87 from $92 on slightly lower 2025 income forecast.
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