Matthew Golden: Looking at first-round WR history between 2002 and 2024

USA Today

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Matthew Golden: Looking at first-round WR history between 2002 and 2024
The Green Bay Packers ended a two-decade drought when they took wide receiver Matthew Golden in the first round of the 2025 draft. Golden, the 23rd overall pick, became the Packers' first first-round pick at receiver since Javon Walker in 2002.
While the Packers have mostly avoided first-round receivers since the turn of the century, the rest of the NFL has not. Between 2002 and 2024, 94 wide receivers were picked in the first round.
Here are some quick and interesting things to know from the first-round receivers drafted between 2002 and 2024:
-- By total receiving yards, the top six first-round rookie receivers were all from LSU: Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr., Brian Thomas, Malik Nabers and Michael Clayton. LSU, Alabama and Ohio State have each had eight receivers picked in the first round since 2002, but in terms of top output, LSU is clearly WRU. Golden is just the third receiver from Texas drafted in the first round since 2002 (Roy Williams, Xavier Worthy).
-- The history at No. 23 overall isn't bad. In fact, it's fairly encouraging for instant impact -- with one outlier. Thomas and Jordan Addison both caught 10 touchdown passes as rookies, while Dwyane Bowe had 995 receiving yards. The one disaster at No. 23 was Laquon Treadwell, who had only 15 receiving yards as a rookie and is one of just six first-round picks at receiver since 2002 to had fewer than 100 receiving yards as a first-year player.
-- Top production is fairly rare. Only 13 of 94 first-round picks at receiver produced 1,000 or more receiving yards as rookies. And only 18 of the 94 averaged at least 9.0 yards per target. Golden didn't even crack 1,000 yards over 16 games during his final collegiate season.
-- Walker, the 20th pick in 2002, had 319 yards during his rookie season in Green Bay in 2002. Overall, 19 first-round picks at receiver had under 300 receiving yards as rookies between 2002 and 2024.
-- Only three players picked No. 20 or later (Jefferson, Thomas, Kelvin Benjamin) produced over 1,000 receiving yards as rookies.
-- The range of outcomes is immense: Nabers received 170 targets over 17 games as a rookie last year; A.J. Jenkins got just one over three games in 2012.
-- Inconsistency and inefficiency are quite possible. Over a third of the 94 first-rounders averaged 7.0 yards per target or less.
-- Instant impact is becoming more and more common. Last year, six of the seven first-round receivers saw at least 80 targets. The only exception was Ricky Pearsall, who missed time and only started four games.
Golden is entering a fascinating situation as a rookie in Green Bay. Opportunities will be available, but with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft all returning, it's unlikely Golden will be a top target unless he's a difference-making player right away. And the Packers are going to make Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs a focal point on offense once again.
It's possible the best-case scenario for Golden as a rookie is that he's an efficient big-play creator who makes the most of his opportunities from Jordan Love.
Past examples of hyper-efficient first-round receivers include Lee Evans, who turned 74 targets into 843 yards; Hakeem Nicks, who turned 74 targets into 790 yards; Anthony Gonzalez, who turned 51 targets into 576 yards; and Henry Ruggs, who turned 43 targets into 452 yards.
Is Golden one of the rare elite rookies who can instantly be a game-changer? Early returns from Green Bay are encouraging, but it's obviously early. More than likely, Golden will need time to develop behind more experienced options in a diverse passing game and will have average (but preferably efficient) production as a first-year player.