From Russia…
When Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea region in 2014, US punished it with sanctions. US-Russia trade, which was worth over $38bn in 2013, slipped to under $35bn in 2014, $23bn in 2015, less than $20bn in 2016, and then started rising again from 2017, although Crimea remained with Russia. What changed was that Obama left White House and Trump came in. In 2021, the last year before Putin invaded Ukraine wholesale, Russian exports to US amounted to $29.6bn – almost the same as in 2012. This recap is important when Trump is threatening to make an example of India with 'substantially' higher tariffs for buying Russian oil. The same Trump who, in Feb, said Ukraine 'should have never started' the war.
Look at Europe, too. EU's own data shows it supplied 10.3% of Russian imports last year, and bought 7.3% of its exports. Total goods trade between the 'virtuous' and the sanctioned amounted to a not insignificant $78bn – much more than the $69bn India-Russia bilateral trade last year. And data from the nonprofit CREA shows EU's spending on Russian energy last year – $25.3bn – was more than its financial assistance to Ukraine – $21.6bn. That's why the West's moral grandstanding on the Ukraine war fails to convince. For Trump officials to accuse India of financing Putin's war, while ignoring EU's Russia trade, and America's own $3bn worth of Russian imports, is nothing but hypocrisy.
How is it kosher for US to continue buying enriched uranium from a sanctioned Russia to meet its energy needs, while frowning upon India's purchase of Russian oil to fuel its growing economy? MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal pointed out in a tweet on Monday that US had nudged India to buy more Russian oil at the start of the war 'for strengthening global energy markets' stability'. Europe was the biggest buyer of Russian oil and gas then, and for it to take a righteous stand, 'traditional supplies were diverted to Europe'. India at that time sourced less than 1% of crude from Russia. By making the switch, it spared the world an inflationary wave so soon after the pandemic.
As things stand, India's saving not more than $2bn a year by buying discounted Russian oil. It can pivot to West Asian suppliers again, but everybody – including US – will then feel inflationary pain. Trump shouldn't forget that while trying to armtwist India into a trade deal.
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This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.
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