5 things to know for June 13: Israel-Iran, Air India crash, DOGE cuts, Immigration protests, Extreme weather
Nearly all the members of the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board have resigned after the Trump administration denied a 'substantial number' of Fulbright awards to people who had already been selected for the 2025-2026 academic year. According to the board, which selects students, scholars, teachers and others to participate in the prestigious cultural exchange program, the government also put 1,200 other foreign Fulbright recipients under 'an unauthorized review process' that could lead to rejection from the program. The award's 'proud legacy has depended on one thing above all: the integrity of the program's selection process based on merit, not ideology, and its insulation from political interference. That integrity is now undermined,' the former board members wrote in a statement.
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Israel has launched an unprecedented attack on Iran that targeted its nuclear program and military. Israel's 200 fighter jets hit dozens of targets and reportedly damaged the country's primary nuclear enrichment facility. Nuclear scientists and key military leaders — including the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran's highest-ranking military officer and an aide to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — were killed. During the 'large-scale strike,' Iranian civilians reportedly felt the ground shaking and heard repeated explosions. Multiple videos showed flames and smoke billowing from buildings across Tehran. In response, Khamenei has vowed that Israel will face 'severe punishment for the attacks.' Israeli citizens have already begun to prepare by closing schools and securing medical facilities. Overnight, Iran launched over 100 drones toward Israeli territory in what is expected to be the first stage of a much larger counter-attack.
At least 290 people died when an Air India jet crashed soon after departure from an airport in Ahmedabad, India, yesterday. The plane, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, was en route to London when it crashed, hitting a hostel for doctors. The death toll includes 241 passengers and crew on Flight AI171 as well as people on the ground. Only one passenger, a British national, survived. Three officials from India's National Disaster Response Force said the flight recorder had been located. According to Boeing, this was the first major incident involving a 787 Dreamliner since the aircraft entered into service in 2011. However, the aerospace giant has had to deal with numerous safety incidents in the last several years, including fatal crashes and quality issues.
The GOP-led House narrowly passed some of the federal spending cuts that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) sought to make unilaterally. The vote on Thursday to cancel $9.4 billion in federal spending for foreign aid and public broadcasting looked like it was going to fail. Then, Rep. Nick LaLota of New York and Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon, both of whom had initially voted no, changed their votes in the final moments. If approved by the Senate, the legislation would cut $8.3 billion for US Agency for International Development (USAID) programs that provide humanitarian assistance, including health care, disaster aid and hunger relief. The bill would also slash $1.1 billion for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which funds NPR and PBS. Full Congressional approval would codify the DOGE cuts into law so that they can't be reversed by the next administration, and would help to insulate the Trump administration from legal challenges.
Hours after a district court judge ruled that President Donald Trump had unlawfully federalized thousands of members of California's National Guard and ordered him to return control of the troops to the state, the 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals put that ruling on pause. California Gov. Gavin Newsom had sued Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth after the president called the troops into federal service to quell the anti-ICE protests in Los Angeles. In his ruling, senior US District Judge Charles Breyer said Trump had not satisfied any of the requirements that must be met to call up a state's National Guard and that the demonstrations did not constitute an insurrection. A panel of three judges from the 9th Circuit will hold a hearing on the issue next week.
Torrential rains swept through San Antonio, Texas, on Thursday, triggering flash floods that swept away 15 vehicles and claimed the lives of at least five people. The rains were so sudden and heavy that the San Antonio River rose from about 3 feet to over 25 feet in just two hours. Ten people had to be rescued from trees and bushes about one mile from where they entered the water, a San Antonio Fire Department official said. Authorities are continuing to search for two people who are still missing.
Hats off to the first American pontiff
Or should we say 'hats on?' Pope Leo XIV showed his allegiance to one Chicago sports team this week by donning a baseball cap during an appearance at the Vatican.
Hey look! It's a new dinosaur.Scientists have identified a previously unknown species that fills an early gap in the fossil record of tyrannosaurus. The 86-million-year-old dinosaur has been named Khankhuuluu mongoliensis (the 'dragon prince of Mongolia').
'Jaws' celebrates semi-centennialIt's been 50 years since the release of the original summer blockbuster — and going to the beach hasn't been the same since. To commemorate the film's upcoming anniversary, NBC plans to air a shark-ton of 'Jaws'-related content.
'Levitating' with happinessSinger Dua Lipa is positively thrilled by the ring on her left hand, particularly since it was placed there by her new fiancé, actor Callum Turner.
Great idea or gross mistake?Instant ramen maker Cup Noodles is releasing a limited edition flavor that's sure to appeal to Gen Z, young millennials and anyone who follows TikTok trends.
Which popular TikTok personality left the US this week after being detained by immigration agents in Las Vegas?A. MrBeastB. Addison RaeC. Charli D'AmelioD. Khaby Lame
Take me to the quiz!
$3.48 millionThat's how much a collection of historic gold coins fetched at auction in Paris this week. The coins, many of which date back centuries, were recovered from the wall of a house in France after the owner died in 2024.
'Weakening the standards now is indefensible from a public health standpoint and a betrayal of EPA's mission. The agency's mission is to protect public health and the environment, not to expose people to more toxic pollution.'
— American Lung Association President and CEO Harold Wimmer, on the Environmental Protection Agency's proposal to scrap two major federal regulations that limit air pollution and planet-warming emissions from coal and gas-fired power plants.
Check your local forecast here>>>
See this elusive squid for the first timeScientists captured the first live sighting of the Gonatus antarcticus from 7,000 feet below the ocean's surface.
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Forbes
21 minutes ago
- Forbes
Israel's Strategy Against Iran: Will It Succeed?
As the Israel-Iran confrontation extends day after day, while officials claim it could last weeks, it's useful to take a dispassionate look at the goals and likely outcomes. Readers will recall that this columnist covered a comparable events on site in Israel a year or so ago. This after decades of covering the wider region for Newsweek and the Wall Street Journal. So, peering through the fog of war let us find areas of clarity where possible. This latest round of the conflict began with precision strikes by Israel successfully targeting top members of the Iranian regime's military and nuclear leadership. One should pause there a moment and put that in context. Russia and Iran ratified a security treaty in April which, inter alia, included Russian anti-aircraft defenses. Did they not function? What happened to their efficacy? If such a strategic treaty means anything it means at least defending the regime, if not the country. Russia doesn't want regime change in Iran - certainly not a Western-style democracy hostile to Moscow. There will undoubtedly be leaders in Tehran wondering about the value of the Russian alliance, its weapons and guarantees. Or indeed there will be suspicions of Russian perfidy - as happened over Syria. In the first days, Israel limited its attacks to military and nuclear affiliated leaders and sites. Moscow wouldn't (in private) necessarily mind that scenario - it would rather have a non-nuclear Iran on its southern borders anyway or at least one dependent on Russian nuclear installations. Plus Moscow would doubtless welcome the spike in oil prices that a regional conflict spurs - which indeed is happening now. The problem is that the momentum of events is turning into a test of the regime's legitimacy - that is to say, threatening the regime's power. The success of Israel's initial attacks meant Tehran had to respond. And not just as a piece of theatrical son et lumiere as happened last time when Israel got off virtually unscathed. But as Tehran fired back repeatedly and began to get through sporadically, Israel has widened the range of targets. Attacks on energy installations will certainly spike the price of oil. But damaging the regime's oil revenues, blacking out Tehran's electricity grid, and causing civilian disorder definitely weakens the government's grip on power. These latest additional targets, combined with the rising civilian casualties in Israel, constitute an escalation where both sides are striving to alienate the opposing side's public from its leadership. There is some media talk that Israel asked President Trump for permission to take out Supreme Leader Khamenei and Trump refused. This sounds implausible in its literal form. Did they ask permission before launching the attacks in the first place? And taking out other top leaders? If not, then why consult the US about Khamenei? No, it's more likely to be a form of subtle or not-so-subtle messaging - Trump kept Khamenei alive this time. In return, nuclear concessions should be forthcoming otherwise the US might not be able to restrain the Israelis next time. This exact strategy, scaled up, is likely the core calculation of Israel's strategy for the full-scale renewal of hostilities. Why suddenly attack a number of nuclear installations if you can't take them all out in a first strike or after several strikes? Iran has nuclear plants buried deep inside mountains, inaccessible to air strikes and others that would, if flattened, contaminate large areas of the Persian Gulf. Including Arab states potentially friendly to the US and Israel. Short of a ground attack with US troops included, these parts of Iran's nuclear network are to some degree invulnerable. So why then launch the attacks in the first place? The answer lies in the Khamenei protocol above. Remember that top nuclear and military personnel were also neutralized in the first strikes. In other words, because the installations cannot all be destroyed, those responsible for them can and will be. In short, this is a kind of anti-personnel war disguised as a strategic anti-infrastructure campaign. Israel has repeatedly shown that it can knock out vital component parts of hostile leadership from Hezbollah to Iran. That is the nature of this latest Israeli casus belli too. Nuclear and military officials will either negotiate away Iran's nuclear threat or they themselves will pay. The principle applies equally to Khamenei himself. Time will tell if the regime leaders react as desired. Thus far, it seems not. Iran's counterstrikes at Israel and the widening of the domestic damage in each country suggests that a much longer attritional struggle to induce regime change by each side is on the cards.
Washington Post
22 minutes ago
- Washington Post
Nuclear agency head warns of radiological and chemical contamination inside Iran's main nuclear site
VIENNA — The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday that there is a possibility of both radiological and chemical contamination within Iran's main nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz following Israeli strikes, although radiation levels outside the complex are presently normal. IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi said that the radiation poses a significant danger if uranium is inhaled or ingested. He added that the risk can be effectively managed with appropriate protective measures, such as using respiratory protection devices while inside the facilities. 'The level of radioactivity outside the Natanz site has remained unchanged and at normal levels, indicating no external radiological impact to the population or the environment from this event,' Grossi said. Grossi was addressing an urgent session of the U.N. nuclear watchdog board in Vienna that was convened at the request of Russia to discuss Israeli attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities. He said there apparently was no additional damage at Natanz and the Isfahan nuclear research site since Saturday. He said that the main concern inside the Natanz facility is the chemical toxicity of a gas called uranium hexafluoride, which is the result of fluorine mixed with the uranium during enrichment. It is extremely volatile, will quickly corrode, can burn the skin and is especially deadly if inhaled, experts say. 'Amid theses challenging and complex circumstances, it is crucial that the IAEA receives timely and regular technical information about the facilities and their respective sites,' Grossi said. Without information, the U.N. nuclear watchdog 'cannot accurately assess the radiological conditions and potential impacts on the population and the environment and cannot provide the necessary assistance.' Grossi said that U.N. inspectors will remain present in Iran and inspect the nuclear facilities 'as soon as safety conditions allow.' He warned that 'military escalation threatens lives, increases the chance of a radiological release with serious consequences for people and the environment and delays indispensable work towards a diplomatic solution for the long-term assurance that Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon.' Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press show extensive damage at Iran's main nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz. The images captured Saturday by Planet Labs PBC show multiple buildings damaged or destroyed. The structures hit include buildings identified by experts as supplying power to the facility. Grossi told the U.N. Security Council on Friday that the above-ground section of the Natanz facility was destroyed. The main centrifuge facility underground did not appear to be hit, but the loss of power could have damaged infrastructure there, he said. Israel also struck a nuclear research facility in Isfahan. The IAEA said four critical buildings were damaged, including an uranium-conversion facility, but there was no sign of increased radiation at Natanz or Isfahan. Grossi on Monday also told the IAEA board of governors that no damage has been seen at the site of the Fordo enrichment site, which is buried under a mountain and protected by anti-aircraft batteries. Fordo appears designed to withstand airstrikes . Grossi also said that the Bushehr nuclear power plant, Iran's only commercial nuclear power plant, has not been targeted nor affected by the recent attacks and neither has the Tehran Research Reactor. Any country on the 35-member board of the IAEA can call a meeting under its rules. The IAEA board last week found Iran in non-compliance with its nuclear obligations for the first time in 20 year. —- The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation . The AP is solely responsible for all content. —- Additional AP coverage of the nuclear landscape:
Yahoo
22 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Could Iran Carry Out Its Threat To Shut Down The Strait Of Hormuz?
The threat of Iran attempting to blockade the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz has re-emerged amid the conflict that has now erupted between it and Israel. Over the years, the Iranians have amassed an arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles, and kamikaze drones, as well as a slew of maritime capabilities like naval mines, well-suited to the task of shutting down the narrow waterway that links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. At the same time, there are questions about the extent to which Israeli strikes may have hampered Iran's ability to follow through on such a threat, or even whether the regime in Tehran would want to take such a drastic step that would have global ramifications. Readers can first get up to speed on the state of the current Israel-Iran conflict, which increasingly includes the targeting of energy infrastructure, in our reporting here. Esmail Kosari (also sometimes written Esmaeil Kousari or Esmaeil Kowsari), currently a member of Iran's parliament and head of the parliamentary committee on defense and national security, has said that closing the Strait of Hormuz is now under serious consideration, according to multiple reports today. The original source of the remarks from Kosari, who also holds the rank of brigadier general in Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), appears to be a story from the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran News Network (IRINN). 'The Strait of Hormuz remains open and commercial traffic continues to flow uninterrupted,' according to an advisory notice yesterday from the Joint Maritime Information Center of the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) office. 'Currently, the JMIC has no indications of an increased threat to the Maritime.' This followed earlier advisories from the UKMTO JMIC regarding tensions in the region after Israel began launching strikes on Iran Thursday. UKMTO MSCIO JMIC – ADVISORY 021-25https:// #marsec — UKMTO Ops Centre (@UK_MTO) June 11, 2025 'At the time of this writing, no impact to shipping has been reported' in the region, Ambrey, an international maritime security firm, said in a separate Threat Circular put out after Israel began its latest campaign against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz 'remains open and there are no indications of an increased threat to the Maritime Environment,' Nils Haupt, a spokesman for the Hapag-Lloyd shipping company, told TWZ directly. 'At the moment, we do not see an urge to divert any vessels. But of course: we continue to monitor the situation on an hourly basis.' Haupt also noted his company currently has no ships in either Iranian or Israeli waters. Iran has repeatedly threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which is just around 20 nautical miles across at its narrowest point, in times of heightened tensions in the past. How narrow the waterway is means that a significant portion of it falls within Iran's national waters, which also overlap with those of Oman to the south. Normal maritime traffic flows in and out through a pair of established two-mile-wide shipping lanes. Roughly a fifth of all global oil shipments, and an even higher percentage of seaborne shipments, pass through the Strait each year. It is also an important route for the movement of liquid natural gas. Some 3,000 ships use it to get to and from the Persian Gulf each month. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would have immediate and potentially dramatic impacts on the global price of oil, which, in turn, could cause significant worldwide economic disruptions. Oil prices had already jumped after Israel launched its new campaign against Iran, which has now expanded to include Iranian energy targets. Naval mines have historically been one of the most immediate options Iran has for trying to bring maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a halt. Those mines could be seeded relatively rapidly by a wide array of vessels, including the IRGC's extensive fleet of small fast attack boats. The Iranian Navy's separate fleets, including its midget submarines, could easily play a role in mine laying, too. Certain commercial vessels, especially those with onboard cranes, might also be able to assist. Finding and clearing naval mines is an arduous process that presents significant risks even in otherwise benign environments. If Iran is truly serious about shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, an array of other threats would be layered on top to hamper the minesweeping efforts and otherwise block maritime traffic. For one, IRGC and Iranian Navy vessels could also just directly attack or otherwise harass foreign warships and commercial vessels alike. Iran has also shown an ability and willingness to use teams riding in small boats to directly plant limpet mines on the hulls of civilian ships, as well as board and seize them, in the past. Many of Iran's naval vessels, including various types of smaller fast attack craft, are armed with anti-ship cruise missiles. It has surface warships, semi-submersibles, and the aforementioned midget submarines that can launch attacks using torpedoes, anti-tank guided missiles, unguided artillery rockets, and other weapons, as well. Furthermore, Iranian maritime forces actively train to employ swarming tactics to help overwhelm any enemy defenses. In recent years, Iran has also fielded a number of cargo ships converted into 'motherships' for launching cruise and ballistic missiles and drones, as well as what it claims to be a 'drone carrier.' TWZ has explored the potential capabilities of these ships in the past, but the actual roles they might play in a stand-up confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz seem limited. Especially in this constrained environment, they would present large and easy-to-find targets for opponents to attack. Iran's IRGC published a video today of launching a ballistic missile from their forward base Shahid Mahdavi (converted container ship). — Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) February 13, 2024 2. Second video shows the takeoff & landing of Ababil-3 drone on the IRGCN drone carrier named Shahid Bahman Bagheri. — Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) February 6, 2025 Iran has also been steadily developing uncrewed surface vessels and undersea vehicles capable of launching kamikaze attacks to its arsenal. Though the ongoing war in Ukraine has now fully demonstrated the very real threats these capabilities present to ships and coastal targets, and even aerial threats, Iran, together with its Houthi allies in Yemen, has now long been a pioneer in this space. Shore-launched anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as kamikaze drones, are another key component of the threats Iran could bring to bear in the Strait of Hormuz. This is only compounded by the narrowness of the waterway, which offers very limited room to maneuver, especially for large ships in the face of high-volume saturation attacks. The prospect of Iran turning the Strait into a super missile and drone engagement zone is a particularly worrisome scenario that TWZ has regularly called attention to in the past. Israel's strikes on Iran since Thursday do raise questions about the extent to which Iran could follow through on any threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. In addition to starting nuclear facilities, a particularly major focus of Israeli operations so far has been hobbling Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. A satellite image from Planet Labs taken on June 12 had also raised the possibility of Israel targeting IRGC naval assets at a base on the Persian Gulf, but this remains very much unconfirmed. This is not a location the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has so far included in its otherwise expansive claims of targets struck across Iran. Iran's 'drone carrier' Shahid Bagheri and Shahid Mahdavi mothership vessel have also been observed leaving their homeport in Bandar Abbas, where they would be very vulnerable to strikes. Planet imagery acquired 0725Z 13JUN2025 suggests the IRGCN naval base west of Bostanoo was likely targeted during Israel's airstrikes. — War Report (@WarReportage) June 13, 2025 Bandar Abbas After the initial attack overnight, there has been some movement at the naval baseAt first look both drone motherships ( IRGC Shahid Bagheri & IRIS Shahid Mahdavi) appeared to have left After taking a closer look, they just moved ~6 km to the west. Both… — MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) June 13, 2025 From nuclear sites to air defense systems, we've dismantled some of Iran's most dangerous military a breakdown of the key targets struck across Iran: — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 14, 2025 At the same, as TWZ has already noted in our reporting on the current Iran-Israel conflict, Iran has a significant ability to disperse its ballistic and cruise missiles. This, in turn, makes them immensely more difficult to track and attack preemptively, and creates additional uncertainty around where threats may suddenly emerge. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the process of clearing naval mines, especially while under attack from other threats, is generally slow-going and dangerous. The U.S. Navy and others have been working to mitigate those risks, including through the increasing use of uncrewed surface and undersea platforms. Still, depending on how many mines Iran is able to lay, an operation to conclusively remove them could take a long time, potentially weeks or even months. It is worth noting here that the campaign by Yemen's Houthis against commercial shipping and foreign warships in and around the Red Sea since October 2023 has now proven out many of the exact capabilities and tactics that Iran could employ in the Strait of Hormuz. The Yemeni militants have also demonstrated how relatively limited threats to civilian vessels can have outsized impacts, even in the face of active foreign intervention. Despite U.S. and foreign forces patrolling the waters around the Red Sea and directly engaging Houthi targets ashore, commercial maritime traffic through that region had largely collapsed last year. Ships were forced to avoid the Suez Canal for a far longer route around the Horn of Africa, creating nearly $200 billion in new costs for the maritime shipping industry collectively. The situation has begun to improve somewhat as Houthi attacks have declined, particularly following a ceasefire deal between the United States and the Yemeni militants in May. However, there are fears that the trend will now reverse again given the current geopolitical climate. Iran has already separately threatened to target U.S. and other foreign forces in the Middle East if they help defend Israel from its missile and drone attacks. The Iranians could seek to launch similar attacks on third parties in response to any efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. According to Reuters, Iran has warned the United States, United Kingdom and France that their bases and ships in the region will be targeted if they assist in the defense of Israel against ballistic missiles launched by Tehran. — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 14, 2025 All this being said, the Red Sea can still be bypassed, but there is no other outlet for commercial shipping from the Persian Gulf than the Strait of Hormuz. As such, Iran even attempting to blockade the waterway would present far further reaching regional and global implications that would draw responses on various levels from foreign powers around the world. In particular, Gulf Arab states, already historically at odds with Iran and aligned with the United States, would be pressured to act, or at least support some kind of intervention, given the impacts to their heavily oil and natural gas-dependent economies. Those countries could look to move oil and natural gas elsewhere across the Arabian Peninsula for export, but not being able to leverage established facilities on the Persian Gulf would still have consequences. Iran has an acute awareness of the risks involved given its experience during the Tanker War sideshow to the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, which prompted a major reaction from the U.S. military. The potential for a repeat of the Tanker War has since been an important factor in U.S. force posture and contingency response planning in the Middle East. More recently, the U.S. military has taken steps to try to build a broader international coalition presence to help ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains free and open. From what has been seen so far, Iran has been looking to deter the U.S. military, especially, from taking an active offensive role alongside Israel in the current conflict. It is hard to see how any attempt to block maritime traffic in the region would not have the exact opposite effect. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would run the additional risk of alienating Iran's foreign partners, especially China, which imports significant amounts of Iranian and other Middle East oil. 'China does not want the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf to be disrupted in any way, and China does not want the price of oil to rise,' Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, told CNBC for a story published yesterday. 'So they're going to bring the full weight of their economic power to bear on Iran.' The revenue from oil and natural gas shipments is vital to Iran itself, and could be even more so in the aftermath of the current conflict. Disruptions to seaborne commerce would have other impacts for the regime in Tehran. In recent months, reports had notably said that Iran had been stepping up imports of chemicals from China that can be used to produce fuel for its missiles. The Iranian armed forces also import other kinds of military hardware from China, as well as Russia. 'Their friends will suffer more than their enemies … So it's very hard to see that happening,' Anas Alhajji, a managing partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, also told CBNC. 'It's not in their interest to cause problems because they will suffer first.' Whether or not Iran might become less inured to the risks of touching off new regional and global crises with enemies and allies as Israel's campaign of strikes continues remains to be seen. The regime in Tehran could feel pressured to take drastic measures, in general, if it perceives its existence as being at risk. If the order were to be given in Tehran, mining and other measures could be implemented quickly, at least to a degree that could be highly disruptive, even if U.S. and other forces react with similar speed. Even if the Strait is not fully shut down, impacts would be felt. U.S. or other foreign forces would face challenges restoring confidence that the passage is safe, especially with the effort that would be required to hunt down mobile missile launchers ashore. Any operations in response to Iranian movements at sea or on land would be conducted in a hostile air and maritime environment, including the anti-ship missile super engagement zone described earlier, and which would extend beyond the immediate confines of the Strait. Supporting tasks like the suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses and intelligence-gathering would be critical. In turn, a major force package would have to be put together and immense resources expended. 'The response from Iran, its proxies and allies is unknown and any effect on the maritime environment is not predictable,' the UKMTO JMIC cautioned in its advisory notice yesterday. 'Given the proximity of regional flashpoints to major maritime routes and chokepoints, the potential for rapid escalation involving the maritime environment should not be discounted. The threat from the Houthis, who have publicly stated their intent to respond if the U.S. is perceived to be involved, increases the threat of a broader regional impact.' Altogether, there are significant questions about Iran's capacity to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and its overall willingness to do so, but it remains a worrisome potentiality that would send out ripples globally. Contact the author: howard@
