In quarterback-driven NFL, winning the turnover battle is no longer best path to victory

New York Times

31-01-2025

When he was introduced as the Chicago Bears head coach last week, Ben Johnson subtly revealed an emerging truth across analytics.
'It's clear modern football in the NFL is quarterback-driven. That is no secret,' Johnson said. 'Right now, quarterback success is a higher predictor of winning and losing than turnover ratio.'
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Wait, what? From Vince Lombardi to Bill Belichick, from Bill Walsh to Bill Parcells, coaches have stressed for decades the importance of ball security and limiting turnovers. The team that wins the turnover battle wins the game, right?
Not necessarily. As teams get familiar with new data, there are more accurate indicators of success that buck that long-held assertion.
Johnson was speaking specifically about quarterback Caleb Williams and why he was drawn to the Bears job, but the premise applies to teams across the NFL.
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Obviously, turnovers remain an important factor, but the days of overcoming moderate quarterback play with a stout defense and takeaways are quickly fading. 'Game managers,' the obscenity uttered for good-not-great quarterbacks, will always have a place in the NFL. Plenty of them reach the postseason every year, but they usually aren't good enough to make a deep run.
In the simplest terms, the best path to winning in today's game is for your quarterback to consistently be better than their quarterback on dropbacks, especially in the postseason.
'If you're that good of a quarterback, you overcome turnovers, you just will,' said former NFL coach Mike Martz, who was ahead of his time with some of his offensive concepts with the St. Louis Rams. Martz was the offensive coordinator for the Rams' victory in Super Bowl XXXIV, then guided them to a 14-2 record and another appearance in Super Bowl XXXVI.
Martz focused on yards per attempt as a more important indicator than turnovers in the 1990s before analytics were commonplace. Of course, he had pretty good quarterbacks in Marc Bulger and Kurt Warner.
Martz believes there are more good quarterbacks today than there are good franchises and offensive systems surrounding them and guiding them.
As for turnovers, Martz said he never discussed interceptions with his quarterback during games.
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'Most of the time during the game, when you see it, you don't really know what happened until you look at the tape,' he said. 'You can be upset and talk to him, he can tell you what he saw, but that never works out. It never works. They're in a fragile state at that point. You leave them alone, encourage them. … You tell them let's keep going, we're not going to slow down.'
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'Quarterback success,' as Johnson used it last week, is a broad term that can include many factors. One standard measure in advanced data that accounts for most of them is Expected Points Added per dropback. It is exactly as it sounds — how many points is the quarterback expected to add every time he drops back to pass.
The league average this season, according to TruMedia, was 0.06 points added per dropback. It has increased to 0.08 points during the playoffs.
Last year, the league average per dropback was 0.02 points added during the regular season and 0.13 in the playoffs.
The Baltimore Ravens scored the highest in EPA/dropback this season at 0.31, and the Cleveland Browns were last at minus-0.2, well behind the 31st-place New York Giants (minus-0.08).
In the last five seasons, NFL teams had an .800 winning percentage in regular-season games with a positive EPA-per-dropback differential. In the playoffs over that same span, they have an .844 win percentage in such games, according to TruMedia.
Over the past five years, teams that lost the turnover battle but had a positive EPA/dropback differential (the quarterback who outplayed the opposing quarterback) had a winning percentage of .519, according to TruMedia. In the playoffs, that climbs to .571.
Conversely, teams that won the turnover battle but had a negative EPA/dropback differential (their quarterback was outplayed by the opposing quarterback) only had a .481 winning percentage. In the playoffs, it sinks to .429, according to TruMedia.
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That held true last weekend when the Buffalo Bills won the turnover battle but lost to the Chiefs in the conference championship because Mahomes outplayed Josh Allen in EPA/dropback. It was one of Mahomes' 10 best career performances, according to TruMedia's dropback metrics.
EPA/dropback is a broad statistic that encompasses several factors — including turnovers. It also takes into account time, score, down and distance. Essentially, quarterbacks can score big in higher-leverage situations (third down, fourth down and red zone opportunities) and a higher rate of explosive plays over negative plays. Quarterbacks that can extend drives and create favorable scoring opportunities grade out the best.
For all of the attention Philadelphia's defense and running game receive, Jalen Hurts' EPA/dropback of 0.13 was tied with Mahomes for ninth in the NFL this season.
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Ten of the top 12 teams in EPA/dropback made the playoffs this year. The two that missed, the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals, were either overcome with injuries (49ers) or by their horrific defense (Bengals). The two Super Bowl teams, the Eagles and Chiefs, ranked ninth and 10th.
Only one team made the postseason this year with a negative EPA/dropback — the Houston Texans, who lost 0.01 points every time their quarterbacks dropped back to pass.
In the last five years, the top 16 teams and 18 of the top 20 in EPA/dropback all reached the playoffs, according to TruMedia.
Given all of those numbers, it should be no surprise that the teams with the three worst EPA/dropback scores this season are the three teams at the top of the draft: the Titans, Browns and Giants.
The Browns and Giants enter the offseason searching for new quarterbacks while the Titans hold the top pick and could also move on from Will Levis.
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'The quarterback has as much influence in a game as any position in sports,' rookie Browns offensive coordinator Tommy Rees said. 'I think when you're in a high level of efficiency offensively, that leads to wins and losses. I think the turnover margin is still a good number, but I think you see the pass efficiency number in the NFL continue to be a good indicator. And obviously, that's a big part of playing the quarterback position.'
The teams caught in the middle, such as the Arizona Cardinals with Kyler Murray and the Jacksonville Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence, might be in the most difficult position. Both were chosen with the first pick in their drafts, but Murray is 24th in EPA/dropback since entering the league in 2019 and Lawrence has a career mark of minus-0.01 to rank 37th. They are two of many examples of decent quarterbacks who have led their teams to the postseason, but are they good enough to win multiple playoff games by outplaying the opposing quarterback? That's what football has become: The team with the better quarterback that day will usually win the game.
Can Lawrence, for example, outplay Allen and Mahomes in the AFC playoffs in consecutive weeks?
How many owners are content with putting a competitive product on the field, making the playoffs a few times but never advancing far? For the owners who want more, what is the exit strategy on highly paid quarterbacks? More importantly, how can teams caught in the middle move into position to find someone better?
For now, it's no surprise that most of the league is chasing the Chiefs and Mahomes. Since entering the league in 2017, Mahomes has the highest EPA/dropback of any quarterback in the NFL, according to TruMedia, in regular season and postseason games combined.
Hurts is 21st.
Place your bets accordingly.
(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; top photos: Patrick Smith, Todd Rosenberg / Getty Images)