Poland holds knife-edge vote with EU role at stake
Warsaw's pro-EU mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, an ally of the centrist government, faces off against nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki, 42.
Opinion polls predict an extremely close race with Nawrocki on 50.1 percent and Trzaskowski on 49.9 percent, a tiny difference within the margin of error.
Polls are open between 0500 GMT and 1900 GMT in the EU and NATO country, which borders Ukraine and has been a key supporter of its neighbour against Russia.
An exit poll is expected as soon as ballots close and election officials predict the final result will be known on Monday.
A victory for Trzaskowski would be a major boost for the progressive agenda of the government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council president.
It could mean significant social changes such as the introduction of civil partnerships for same-sex couples and an easing of the near-total ban on abortion.
Presidents in Poland, a fast-growing economy of 38 million people, have the power to veto legislation and are also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
Victory for Nawrocki would embolden the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which ruled Poland between 2015 and 2023, and could lead to fresh parliamentary elections.
Many Nawrocki supporters want stricter curbs on immigration and advocate for conservative values and more sovereignty for the country within the European Union.
"We should not give in to European pressure," 40-year-old Agnieszka Prokopiuk, a homemaker, said ahead of the vote.
"We need to make our own way... and not succumb to trends from the West," she told AFP in the city of Biala Podlaska in eastern Poland near the Belarus border.
Tomasz Czublun, a 48-year-old mechanic, said: "The European Union is important but the sovereignty of our country is much more important."
Ukraine
Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a politics expert, called the election "a real clash of civilisations" because of the wide policy differences between the candidates.
Many Trzaskowski voters support greater integration within the EU and an acceleration of social reforms.
Malgorzata Wojciechowska, a tour guide and teacher in her fifties, said Polish women "unfortunately do not have the same rights as our European friends".
"I hope that Rafal Trzaskowski will relaunch the debate on abortion so that we can finally live in a free country where we can have our own opinion," she told AFP.
The election is also being closely watched in Ukraine, which is seeking to bolster international diplomatic support in its negotiations with Russia as its resistance to Moscow's invasion grinds on.
Nawrocki, an admirer of US President Donald Trump, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has called for curbs on benefits for the estimated one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland.
He used his last campaign hours on Friday to leave flowers at a monument to Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II.
"It was a genocide against the Polish people," he said.
The election's final result is expected to hinge on whether Trzaskowski can mobilise enough supporters and whether far-right voters will cast their ballots for Nawrocki.
Far-right candidates got more than 21 percent of the vote in the election's first round, which Trzaskowski won by a razor-thin margin of 31 percent against 30 percent for Nawrocki.
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At a press conference in Vilnius on Monday, President Andrzej Duda commented for the first time on the results of the second round of the presidential election. "I hope that for Prime Minister Tusk and the government, this is an unambiguous signal from the Poles that they expect the kind of policy in their majority that the President-elect proposes and that Karol Nawrocki preached during his campaign," said the President. Both candidates, in their post-election speeches, declared their intention to build bridges in a divided society. Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the Law and Justice Party, remained hopeful after the exit poll results—and his optimism proved justified, as later polls and the official results from the State Electoral Commission confirmed his victory. "I believe that tomorrow we will wake up with our President Karol Nawrocki, who will put together a half-crawled Poland," praised the PiS-backed candidate. Rafał Trzaskowski, after exit polls suggested he was winning, said he would be the president of all Poles. "I believe that the first, most important task of the president of Poland will be to reach out to all those who did not vote for me," he said. At Monday's conference, PKW chairman Sylwester Marciniak officially announced that Karol Tadeusz Nawrocki received 10,606,877 valid votes, while Rafał Kazimierz Trzaskowski got 10,237,286. The difference between them was fewer than 370,000 votes, or 1.78 percentage points – the smallest gap in a presidential run-off since 1989. This shows how deeply divided society is and suggests possible political instability. Will relations between Donald Tusk's government and the new president-elect improve? We asked the people of Warsaw. "They are on opposite sides and don't agree. But Nawrocki is a big unknown. Also, nobody knows anything," said one passer-by. Another Warsaw resident toned down the mood: "We need to cool down first. 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Two days after the first round of the presidential election, Donald Tusk announced the renegotiation of the coalition agreement and the reconstruction of the government, which was to take place after the election of the president. "The atmosphere has to cool down after the elections. I am not saying it will be next year, but in June I will already be back calmly from talks with my coalition partners. Not to take anything away from them, but to make this government smaller – although in good proportions for everyone – and much more efficient," Prime Minister Donald Tusk said during an interview with TVP. In a televised speech later on Monday, he announced his intention to hold a confidence vote in parliament without giving any more details. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said he would ask parliament to hold a vote of confidence in his coalition government after his ally, the liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, lost Sunday's presidential runoff. Conservative Karol Nawrocki won the election, finishing with 50.89% of the vote. "Regardless of how we evaluate the winning candidate, we should acknowledge his victory and congratulate his voters," Tusk said in a televised speech on Monday. "I want to declare to you that I will not stop for a moment as prime minister of our government. The presidential elections have not changed anything here and will not change anything. We will cooperate with the new president where necessary and possible." The result leaves Tusk politically weakened and there are questions about whether his multi-party coalition can survive to the end of its term in late 2027. If he survives the confidence vote, it would show he still has a mandate to govern. It is not clear when the confidence vote might take place. Nawrocki will succeed conservative Andrzej Duda, whose second and final term ends on 6 August. The close ballot had the country on edge since a first round two weeks earlier revealed deep divisions along the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union. Although most day-to-day power lies in Poland lies with the prime minister, the president is able to influence foreign policy and, crucially, veto legislation. Tusk, who came to power in late 2023 with a coalition government with a broad ideological divide, has been unable to muster enough support to fulfil certain electoral promises such as easing abortion law. He is expected to face further obstacles with Nawrocki as president. The 42-year-old amateur boxer and political novice is supported by the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023. Party leader Jarosław Kaczyński appealed on Monday to all political forces to support the formation of a technocratic government. "Today we need a solution in the form of a technical government, which, like the president, will be non-partisan. The head of this government must be selected in talks with those who would be ready to support such a project. It would not have to be someone who has ties to us," he said. "Individual ministries would be managed by specialists in specific areas of social life."
