UFC 316 video: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley final faceoff before title rematch
UFC 316 video: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley final faceoff before title rematch
NEWARK, N.J. – Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley completed their final bit of pre-fight business Friday at UFC 316 ceremonial weigh-ins.
Dvalishvili (1-4 MMA, 12-2 UFC) and O'Malley (18-2 MMA, 10-2 UFC) engaged in one last staredown before they share the octagon in a bantamweight title rematch on Saturday at Prudential Center (ESPN+ pay-per-view, ESPN, ESPN+), concluding the build to the sequel from the original meeting in September.
The first contest at UFC 306 saw Dvalishvili take the belt by unanimous decision. O'Malley claimed he was injured and since underwent surgery and made radical life changes, and now it remains to be seen if that will lead to a different outcome against Dvalishvili, who has won 12 consecutive fights.
Check out the video above to see the final Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley faceoff at UFC 316 ceremonial weigh-ins.
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USA Today
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What time is Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili 2 UFC 316 match?
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Big Ten football 2025 win-loss record predictions, per ESPN's FPI
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Purdue Boilermakers FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 3.2 - 8.8 FPI Rating: -6.9 (No. 92 overall) Purdue enters 2025 with low expectations. New coach Barry Odom won't have much trouble improving on the team's 1-11 2024 campaign. But anything more than three wins would be surprising. The FPI gives the Boilermakers only a 6.3% chance to make a bowl game Northwestern Wildcats FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 4.1 - 7.9 Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 3-9 FPI Rating: -3.6 (No. 74 overall) Northwestern forms the Big Ten's bottom tier with Purdue. David Braun was the conference's coach of the year just two years ago after leading the Wildcats to an 8-5 record in his first year in charge. 2024's 4-8 output created questions about the sustainability of that success. The FPI sees a repeat of that performance in 2025. Michigan State Spartans FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.2 - 6.8 Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 6-6 FPI Rating: 2.3 (No. 59 overall) Michigan State needs to build momentum somehow, whether on the field or the recruiting trail. Since the latter is not happening at the moment, Jonathan Smith will need to show significant improvement when the team takes the field for his second year in charge. The FPI gives the Spartans a 42.4% chance to reach a bowl game and quiet the outside noise. Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire UCLA Bruins FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.4 - 6.6 Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 8-4 FPI Rating: 4.6 (No. 47 overall) UCLA is one of our breakthrough picks in 2025. The FPI disagrees, forecasting another fringe-bowl season for the program. Tennessee transfer QB Nico Iamaleava will have a significant say in the season's result. Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire Wisconsin Badgers FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.6 - 6.5 Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 6-6 FPI Rating: 6.3 (No. 38 overall) Wisconsin is not far down this list due to a lack of quality -- the team holds a top-40 ranking entering the year. It is instead due to a gauntlet schedule that includes games against the FPI's No. 3 (Alabama), No. 4 (Ohio State), No. 6 (Oregon), No. 17 (Michigan), No. 27 (Washington), No. 31 (Indiana) and No. 39 (Iowa) teams. The Badgers would do extremely well to make a bowl game, something the FPI gives them a 51.1% chance to do. Rutgers Scarlet Knights FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.8 - 6.2 Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 4-8 FPI Rating: 3.5 (No. 55 overall) The FPI gives Rutgers a 57.1% chance to extend its bowl streak to three seasons. We're less optimistic about the team's chances after it lost numerous defensive starters and contributors to the portal or graduation. Maryland Terrapins FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.9 - 6.1 Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 5-7 FPI Rating: 1.9 (No. 61 overall) Mike Locksley might need a bowl-eligible season to keep his job. Maryland just hired a new athletic director, which only heightens questions surrounding the program after its 4-8 record last season. The FPI gives it a 59% chance to reach the postseason, thanks in part to an easy nonconference slate. Iowa Hawkeyes FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.2 - 5.8 Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 7-5 FPI Rating: 6.3 (No. 39 overall) Iowa can be projected as a fringe-six-win team entering 2025, but history matters. The Hawkeyes haven't won fewer than seven games in any non-COVID season since 2012, and only once since 2000. Given that trend, I'll comfortably predict another seven or eight-win campaign. 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Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire Penn State Nittany Lions FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.2 - 2.2 Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 11-1 FPI Rating: 21.5 (No. 5 overall) Penn State finally broke through in 2024. With it returning its starting quarterback and its two star running backs, expectations are even higher entering 2025. The FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 25.1% shot to win the Big Ten, a 63.8% chance to return to the CFP, a 14.4% chance to, unlike last season, reach the national title game and a 7% chance to win it. Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire Ohio State Buckeyes FPI Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.4 - 2.2 Badgers Wire Record Prediction: 10-2 FPI Rating: 23.8 (No. 4 overall) The only numbers that matter for Ohio State are its win-loss result against Michigan, which it hasn't defeated in a half-decade, and its chance to win the national title. The FPI has the latter at 10.8% entering the year, tied for the third-shortest with Alabama. Only Texas (24.1%) and Georgia (17.9%) have better odds. Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes and opinion
New York Times
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UFC 316 odds, predictions: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley headlines a card with two belts on the line
The UFC is back with two title fights and a ton of high-level matchups. Both the men's and women's bantamweight belts will be decided on Saturday night at UFC 316. I'll be breaking down both title fights and an additional matchup from the card below, but if you'd like to chat about any extra matchups, feel free to leave a comment! Advertisement Sean O'Malley will be chasing the return of his championship status against Merab Dvalishvili this weekend in a rematch that resulted in the last hand-changing of the bantamweight belt. I thought Dvalishvili handily won the first time around, and I was betting on that happening, though the scorecards were ultimately competitive. O'Malley was and is the better boxer. I've always loved his ability to strike at a high rate while moving forward and backward, which is a showcase of O'Malley's outstanding boxing cardio. We've seen him top out at 230 significant strikes on multiple occasions. He's also showcased a lot more power than Dvalishvili and has legitimate knockout upside against any opponent in the division. That includes Dvalishvili, who's been tagged on more than one occasion and wobbled badly against Marlon Moraes back in 2021. However, Dvalishvili is a generational athlete with strong wrestling, and there's not much O'Malley can do about it. Particularly, O'Malley isn't a good enough wrestler to stop Dvalishvili taking him down and holding onto him. In the first fight, Dvalishvili landed six takedowns on 15 attempts and earned 10 minutes of control. Honestly, I think he carries upside for more. O'Malley's first-level takedown defense is not nearly good enough, and Dvalishvili is far more physical in the clinch, where he can hang on to O'Malley and beat him up. At distance, Dvalishvili was not fighting in boxing range. O'Malley couldn't land head-strikes and was afraid to kick in fear of getting taken down. He did hurt Dvalishvili to the body in the fifth round, and possibly could have earned a TKO stoppage had the next couple of minutes gone perfectly. My best guess is that O'Malley will try to kick and attack the body more frequently this time. Despite leaving social media and training wrestling, I just don't think he can catch up to Dvalishvili's level. He may limit the wrestling attack, but I don't think he can stop it completely. Ultimately, he needs to find a way to do more damage, and I think he'll view that as chasing the body strikes earlier in the fight. Advertisement It's a difficult ask for O'Malley, and I think Dvalishvili is the deserved favorite at -275. I don't see the point in betting that outright, though I wouldn't be shocked if it still looked like value in hindsight. I'd much rather play his decision prop, which you can find at -170. I think that's clearly the most realistic path to victory for Dvalishvili. I can understand still being cautious with the price, but I don't mind it. O'Malley has a shot at a decision win based on the outcome of the first fight. He'll need to do more damage, and there's some KO equity mixed in there as well. I'd never fully count him out, but it's a slim likelihood unless he can prove much more efficient as a defensive wrestler and scrambler, or hits the one-shot kill. The women's bantamweight championship is one of the more intriguing matchups in quite some time, largely because Kayla Harrison is involved and is generally expected to come home with the title. Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, winning in 2012 and 2016. She's 18-1 as a pro in MMA and won multiple world championships in the Professional Fighters League before moving over to the UFC in 2024. The craziest part is that she typically fights at 155 pounds, but is having to drop multiple weight classes to 135 pounds in order to compete. She's looked very good doing so in both of her UFC appearances. Needless to say, she's a physical beast for this division, which pairs very well with her elite judo skills. On the other side, Julianna Peña clawed her way back to a second title after losing it to Amanda Nunes in 2022. She scraped together a split decision against Raquel Pennington in October. Peña is a pest in a positive way. She is willing to engage and throw volume on the feet. She is willing to clinch and grapple. She's fairly skillful as a submission grappler, and even on the bottom, Peña can threaten and make the top fighter work. She's just not particularly processed, and I think her defense is very poor. She cannot defend takedowns, and her defensive rate is 23 percent, which will be a major problem in this particular matchup. That's the biggest hurdle I can't overcome in matchup analysis. Harrison is going to be levels ahead of Peña physically, and Peña is particularly bad at Harrison's primary strength, which is the art of landing takedowns. The question becomes whether Peña can win despite getting taken down with ease. The answer is it's not likely, but possible. One avenue could be with cardio. Harrison cutting weight could make her tired over 25 minutes, which we have seen before in PFL. Perhaps Peña could mount a late comeback with a cardio edge, which is how she won her first title against Nunes. (It was early in the fight, but Nunes was dead tired.) Advertisement Otherwise, Peña will have limited options. She'll attack with submissions from her back. On the feet, Peña is probably the better pure striker, and Harrison isn't particularly effective there. Peña could win rounds or swarm on Harrison if she's tired. I just don't think Harrison is likely to get extremely tired here because the takedowns should come easily, and I highly doubt Peña can get up from her back with ease. Harrison lands nasty ground-and-pound, and she should cleanly win early rounds. I do have some trepidation on late-round dynamics, but I think the most likely outcome is Harrison winning them with grappling, or potentially even finishing Peña before it gets that far. On BetMGM, Harrison is a heavy -750 favorite, which doesn't feel unreasonable given the matchup dynamics. I don't think it's a fight I'm going to invest in. Perhaps you could take a shot on Harrison inside the distance (-175) or by TKO (+300). There are only a few competitively lined fights on the card, but Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix is one of the matchups that interests me most. Primarily, it's because we're getting the UFC debut of Mix, who is the former Bellator bantamweight champion. Mix is 20-1 professionally, with 13 wins by submission and two more by knockout. He's beaten legit competition like Magomed Magomedov, Sergio Pettis, Kyoji Horiguchi and Raufeon Stots. His only loss came in a five-round decision to Juan Archuleta in 2020. Mix is a high-level wrestler, and that wrestling is the backbone of his game, along with his submission grappling. He's one of the best back-takers in the sport, and should clearly have a path to beating the mid-levels of the division with takedowns and back control. Plus, more than 50 percent of his professional wins are by submission, which largely include rear-naked chokes and guillotines, and I consider him to be a fairly dangerous and opportunistic grappler. Advertisement I do question whether Mix is a bit too reliant on that path, though, which won't be the easiest to achieve against the best of the best in the UFC. He doesn't necessarily shoot takedowns at the highest volume, and while he's left striking at distance, Mix seems semi-vulnerable there to me as well. I don't think we can rely on Mix to comfortably win striking rounds, and I'd probably consider him at a disadvantage against most competition. His pure wrestling will get him far, and he's well-sized, which should provide an edge, but I do think he'll need more to become champion. I also worry a bit that he gets labored down the stretch. I feel he is more comfortable in the early rounds. It's a strong base of skills, but I'm underwhelmed from a macro sense. Meanwhile, I am a fan of Bautista and have supported him for a while. I really enjoy Bautista's pacing, and he's been in more than one action fight throughout his UFC career. He currently lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.91 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate. Bautista is also well-rounded and can wrestle, landing 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and defending at 66 percent. I don't think he has fought many quality wrestlers who can compare to Mix, but his matchup against Da'Mon Blackshear was a solid performance. Blackshear took Bautista down four times in that fight, but was only able to control him for three minutes. Bautista edged out a decision with effective striking. Bautista's strongest round was also his third round. Dating back to his fight against Jin Soo Son, Bautista was able to land 60 significant strikes in that third round, which has always given me confidence in him over the distance. I don't think he's a perfect fighter, though. His defensive wrestling isn't elite. Mix will quite likely take him down early on in the fight. My bigger question is whether he can easily control Bautista because Bautista is an urgent scrambler. Advertisement It seems fair to assume Mix can win a round or two with takedowns and back-takes. Perhaps he can actually submit Bautista with a RNC. Bautista is not the easiest to control, though, and I think it's somewhat likely he can scramble free as well. At distance, I give Bautista a clear advantage with his striking volume and effectiveness. Mix stands kind of upright, and I don't always love his reactions. Bautista won't pour on the offense as Mix will limit engagements, but Bautista should be winning at distance, and I'd also favor him the longer the fight lasts. Ultimately, it's a great test for Mix, and it could be a fun fight. I think the most likely outcome is a competitive affair where both sides have success. That doesn't make me excited to jump on Mix as a favorite. He's currently -190 on BetMGM. It's possible he simply wraps up a takedown or two and finds a submission. Perhaps a longer shot on Mix by submission is a viable prop, which sits at +200. I do think Bautista can win a decision, and I don't mind him at +155. I also acknowledge that his early success may be limited, so it may also be better to jump in as a live opportunity. I do think a decision win for Bautista is the most likely outcome. Taking that at +250 is within range. I'm looking forward to seeing new blood in the bantamweight division. Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Merab Dvalishvili: Candice Ward / Getty Images)
